Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, January 11: Trade Optimism and the Recovery in Oil Boosts Risk Appetites

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Overview:  Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten sessions, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is closing in on its second consecutive weekly advance. 

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…And Get Bigger

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Germany Industrial Production, Jan 2007 - 2019
Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme.

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Question of the week: do we still need a standard retirement age?

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Reaching the official retirement age1 is an important milestone for many people. Some look forward to it while others dread it. Some dreading it would prefer to continue working either because they enjoy their work or would like the extra income. Some feel they are being systematically and unfairly labelled too old to work.

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The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better in the recession than they did in the so-called "recovery."

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Gold Outlook 2019: Uncertainty Makes Gold A “Valuable Strategic Asset” – WGC

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Gold Outperformed Most Assets In 2018
As we look ahead, we expect that the interplay between market risk and economic growth in 2019 will drive gold demand. And we explore three key trends that we expect will influence its price performance: financial market instability, monetary policy and the US dollar, structural economic reforms.

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Provisional Results 2018: Will the SNB ever make profits again?

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

15 Billion Francs Losses in 2018. Given that the good years have finished: Will the SNB will ever make profits again? And compensate for the ever rising Swiss franc?

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FX Daily, January 10: Equity Bounce Stalls while the Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Equities, bonds and the dollar are consolidating the moves seen earlier this week. This means equities are trading heavy and bonds firmer. The euro is paring gains that carried it to its best level (~$1.1570) since mid-October.  After stalling near JPY109 in the last two sessions, the greenback slumped to almost JPY107.75 before finding a better bid. 

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Swiss National Bank Suffers $15 Billion Loss On 2018 Market Rout

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

SNB US Stock Holdings, Jun 2014 - 2018
In the third quarter of 2018, the hedge fund known as the Swiss National Bank did something it had not done in years: it sold stocks. As we showed in November, the overall value of the SNB's US listed long holdings rose by over $2 billion to $90 billion, but all of this was due to the price appreciation as the central bank sold around $7bn of equities in Q3. This compares to purchases during 1H18 of around $6bn.

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Euro Credit: 2019 Outlook

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Euro Credit, 2015 - 2018
Last year was a difficult one for euro credit, with both the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (ICE BofAML) investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) indices posting negative total returns. This was entirely due to wider credit spreads, as medium-term German government bonds yields fell slightly.

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Central bank faces loss of CHF15 billion

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) says it expects to report a loss of about CHF15 billion ($15.3 billion) for 2018, mainly because of a weak performance of foreign currency positions. In a report on provisional annual calculations, the SNB said on Wednesday that the federal and cantonal authorities would nonetheless still benefit a CHF2 billion payment – two-thirds of which will go to the 26 cantons.

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You Know It’s Coming

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Benchmark 10-year UST 2013-2016
After a horrible December and a rough start to the year, as if manna from Heaven the clouds parted and everything seemed good again. Not 2019 this was early February 2015. If there was a birth date for Janet Yellen’s “transitory” canard it surely came within this window. It didn’t matter that currencies had crashed and oil, too, or that central banks had been drawn into the fray in very unexpected ways.

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Blackrock Say Gold Will Be A “Valuable Portfolio Hedge” In 2019

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Gold Futures and ETF Holdings, Jan 2017 - 2019
“We’re experiencing a slowdown,” says Blackrock fund manager. Global Allocation Fund adding to gold exposure through ETFs. Gold “has had a very consistent record of helping mitigate equity risk when volatility is rising”. Gold bullion has been a “store of value for a very long time”.

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FX Daily, January 09: Equities Continue Recovery, Greenback Remains Heavy

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

Overview:  Global equities have extended the New Year rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced for the fifth consecutive session and the 10th in the past 11.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is rising for the second consecutive session, something it has managed to do only one other time in the past month.  The S&P 500 is off to one of its best starts in years. 

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Keep Fitch’s Warning in Perspective

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

meh
The global head of Fitch's sovereign ratings warned that the continued US government shutdown could jeopardize the AAA-status the rating agency grants America. It spurred little market reaction (and for good reason).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in December 2018: +0.7 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, December 2018
09.01.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. The average annual inflation reached 0.9% in 2018.

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Mars products boycotted by Swiss supermarket chain

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

Swiss supermarket chain Coop is refusing to stock products from food producing giant Mars in a dispute over prices. The retailer is part of a European buying consortium whose other members will also boycott Mars, Twix and Bounty confectioneries. The dispute is over how much retailers must pay for the good they stock on their shelves.

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If You’ve Lost The ISM…

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Composite PMI, Jan 2013 - 2019
These transition periods are often just this sort of whirlwind. One day the economy looks awful, the next impervious to any downside. Today, it has been the latter with the BLS providing the warm comfort of headline payrolls. For now, it won’t matter how hollow.

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Brexit vote to dominate Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates. The value of the Pound against the Swiss Franc has remained in a fairly tight range since the start of the year. However, in the last couple of days the Pound has made some small gains after the Swiss National Bank confirmed that their currency reserves have dropped slightly.

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Swiss Retail Sales, November 2018: -0.2 percent Nominal and -0.5 percent Real

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

witzerland Retail Sales YoY, Nov 2018
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.2% in nominal terms in November 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month.

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FX Daily, January 8: Dollar Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

Overview: The global capital markets remain calm after the surge in volatility seen over the last couple of weeks. Asian equities were mixed, with the Japanese, Australia and Indian shares gaining, but other large regional markets, like China, South Korea, and Taiwan fell. European equities are firmer. Benchmark bond have edged higher. 

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