Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, October 22: Collective Sigh of Relief?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

After a slow start in Asia, the US dollar has turned better bid. The euro recovered from $1.1430 before the weekend to $1.1550 today, where an option for almost 525 mln euros expires today. There is another option (1.6 bln euros) at $1.1500 that also expires today.

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Swiss Banks Curb China Travel After UBS Banker Arrested

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

Asia HNW Population, 2010 - 2017
Two major Swiss banks imposed restrictions on staff travel to China after a UBS employee was detained in the country, underscoring the challenges of doing business in a country which is a mecca for banks eager to capture and manage (for a generous fee) the fastest growing fortunes in the world, yet are challenged by a regime that tramples over civil rights.

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FX Weekly Preview: What Can Bite You This Week?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will continue to have a strong influence on other capital markets.

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Mutiny, Class, Authority and Respect

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

Humiliation and fear of a catastrophic decline in status foment mutiny and rebellion. I recently finished The Bounty: The True Story of the Mutiny on the Bounty, a painstakingly researched history of the mutiny, but with a focus on how the story was shaped by influential families after the fact to save the life of one mutineer, Peter Haywood, and salvage the reputation of the leader, Fletcher Christian, via a carefully orchestrated character...

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Swiss Rail plans to test free WiFi on trains

2018-10-21

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2018-10-21

Swiss Rail announced on Thursday that it would test free WiFi, named FreeSurf, on certain routes next year with a plan to extend the offer to all major routes from 2020, according to RTS. Train passengers benefiting from the tests in 2019 will be those travelling on InterCity trains between Lausanne and St. Gallen, Geneva and Zurich, and Bienne and Basel.

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Switzerland Retains Top Spot in Global Wealth Ranking

2018-10-21

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2018-10-21

Despite a slight decline in fortunes, the Swiss still enjoy the highest mean wealth per adult, according to the 2018 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report. The reportexternal link, released on Thursday, estimated the average fortune of a Swiss adult to be $530,240 (CHF527,707) compared to $537,600 the previous year. The Alpine nation still comes out on top, followed by Australia ($411,060) and the United States ($403,970).

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Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever Finally Ending? (Hint: Follow the Money)

2018-10-21

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2018-10-21

Global wealth CSa
The key here is the gains generated by owning US-denominated assets as the USD appreciates. Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever finally ending? One straightforward approach to is to follow the money, i.e. global capital flows: assets that attract positive global capital flows will continue rising if demand for the assets exceeds supply, and assets that are being liquidated as capital flees the asset class (i.e. negative capital flows) will decline in...

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Steep Increase in Swiss Housing Prices in Last Decade

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

Apartment prices have risen in every district in Switzerland in the last eleven years except for one. Zurich tops the list with a median price of CHF 13,000 ($1313) per square metre – a 97% increase since 2007. This is according to a study by the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ) in partnership with comparison website comparis.ch.

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Swiss arms exports rose almost 18percent in 2018

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

Switzerland exported close to 18% more arms over the first nine months of 2018 than it did in the first nine months of 2017, according to figures published by State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). According to the numbers, in the nine months to 30 September 2018, Swiss companies exported close to CHF 300 million of arms, nearly CHF 45 million or 17.6% more than over the same period in 2017.

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Raining On Chinese Prices

2018-10-20

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2018-10-20

China Price Stability 2007-2018
It was for a time a somewhat curious dilemma. When it rains it pours, they always say, and for China toward the end of 2015 it was a real cloudburst. The Chinese economy was slowing, dangerous deflation developing around an economy captured by an unseen anchor intent on causing havoc and destruction. At the same time, consumer prices were jumping where they could do the most harm.

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Bumpy Road Ahead for Italian Budget

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

Italy Update Chart, 2006 - 2022
Rome’s budget plans put it on a collision course with the European Commission. The Italian government has submitted its 2019 draft budget plan (DBP) to the European Commission. The proposed DBP is not in line with European Union rules and sets the government on a collision course with the European authorities.

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Global economic competitiveness stumbles in face of technology transformation

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

A major update to the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Index reveals that the global economy is ill-prepared for the transformation brought on by technology disruption. While the United States comes the closest to the “competitive frontier” taking the top spot in the ranking, the WEF warns that government policies need to catch up to prevent rapid technological change from becoming a drag on competitiveness.

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Interview, Ted Talk, Gold Bug Hope and will the Swiss Franc Collapse

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

I was on the Jay Taylor Show again, to talk about the the Swiss franc. No, the headline was not of my choosing. Adam Caroll gave a Ted Talk about how people behave differently when money isn’t real. And gets into a discussion of how kids will click to spend on their parents’ phones without any real appreciation for what it costs. It’s called “When money isn’t real“.

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Inflation Environment remains Benign in China

2018-10-19

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2018-10-19

China CPI and Core CPI YoY, 2013 - 2018
The headline consumer price index (CPI) in China picked up slightly in September, rising by 2.5% year-over-year (y-o-y) compared with 2.3% in August, driven by higher food price and fuel prices. Excluding food and energy, core inflation in China actually eased to 1.7% y-o-y in September from 2.0% in August.

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FX Daily, October 18: China’s Angst Stays Local

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Asian equities were lower, led by a nearly 3% drop in Shanghai, while European shares shrugged it off and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover. The S&P 500 is off by about 0.25%. Global bond yields were dragged higher by US Treasuries where the 10-year yield is straddling 3.20% after rising four basis points yesterday.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q3 2018: First Decline in Foreign Trade Over the Last Seven Quarters

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Switzerland Trade Balance, September 2018
After a year and a half of continued growth in Swiss foreign trade, exports in the third quarter of 2018 contracted by 2.9% compared with the previous quarter's record. However, they remained above the 54 billion franc mark. Evolving at a high level, imports fell by 1.5% (-768 million francs). The trade balance closes with a surplus of 3.5 billion francs.

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Builders strike in Ticino over worsening work conditions

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Some 3,000 construction workers staged a strike in southern Switzerland on Monday to protest changes in the industry, including disputes around the retirement age of 60. Further action is planned in Geneva on Tuesday. The strikes in canton Ticino were jointly called by the Unia, Syna, and OCST trade unions, who claimed that business leaders were “blackmailing” workers with worsening conditions as a quid pro quo for maintaining the current industry...

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Brexit: Five FAQs

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Brexit
The UK voted in s referendum to leave the EU in June 2016. It will happen at the end of March 2019. What is the status of the negotiations? It had been hoped that the two sides would be close enough to allow a special summit to be called next month to finalize an agreement.

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Just The One More Boom Month For IP

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Industrial Production, SA 1995-2018
The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last September. Therefore, the base comparison for 2018 is against that artificial low. As such, US IP rose by 5.1% year-over-year last month. That’s the largest gain since 2010.

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In surprise move, Central Bank of Hungary announces 10-fold jump in its gold reserves

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Hungary's new Gold Bars
In one of the most profound developments in the central bank gold market for a long time, the Hungarian National Bank, Hungary’s central bank, has just announced a 10 fold jump in its monetary gold holdings. The central bank, known as Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) in Hungarian, made the announcement in Budapest, Hungary’s capital.

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