Tag Archive: newsletter

Cheat Sheet

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market.

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More Swiss construction workers go on strike

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Following strikes in Ticino and Geneva earlier this month, 1,500 construction workers have continued the protest in French-speaking Switzerland. According to the labour unions, more than 1,500 workers from cantons Freiburg, Neuchâtel, Valais and Jura put their tools down on Tuesday.

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Another ‘Highest In Ten Years’

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

ECI, Jan 2001 - Oct 2018
Upon the precipice of the Great “Recession”, US workers were cushioned to some extent by what economists call sticky wages. Before the Great Depression, as well as during it, companies would attempt to deal with looming economic contraction by cutting pay rates before workers.

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Gold Analysts At LBMA See 25percent Return To $1,532/oz In 12 months

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Gold in USD (10 Years)
The price of gold is expected to rise to $1,532 an ounce by October next year, delegates to the London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual gathering predicted on Tuesday. A poll of delegates at the LBMA conference in Boston also predicted higher prices in a year’s time for silver, platinum and palladium.

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FX Daily, October 31: No Fright on This Halloween

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end. All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US. European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 tries to extend the recovery for a third consecutive session, led by energy, materials, and information technology.

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SNB reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for third quarter of 2018

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a loss of CHF 7.8 billion for the first three quarters of 2018. A valuation loss of CHF 3.7 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 5.3 billion. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.5 billion.

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Euro area’s initial growth figures for Q3 prove disappointing

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

US Versus Euro Area Real GDP Growth 2005-2019
While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk.According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast.

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Critics of Mercosur deal Name Conditions for Support

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

A coalition of Swiss farming organisations, consumers and NGOs says it is in favour of a free trade agreement between Switzerland and the four Mercosur countries: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. But it is demanding binding criteria concerning sustainability.

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Why Is Social Media So Toxic?

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
The desire to improve our social standing is natural. What's unnatural is the toxicity of doing so through social media. It seems self-evident that the divisiveness that characterizes this juncture of American history is manifesting profound social and economic disorders that have little to do with politics. In this context, social media isn't the source of the fire, it's more like the gasoline that's being tossed on top of the dry timber.

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FX Daily, October 30: Another Attempt to Put a Bottom in Stocks

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

Overview: First, reports suggested that if China refused to make any trade concessions, the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting next month would not take the issue up.  Fair enough.  Then, new reports indicated that the White was prepared to take additional trade measures if there was no agreement between Trump and Xi. 

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KOF Economic Barometer: Upswing Sets a More Leisurely Pace

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

KOF Economic Barometer, October 2018
In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years.

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Doctors’ Salaries Exceed eEpectations

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

The salaries of self-employed doctors in Switzerland are around a third higher than previously thought, according to a study by the Federal Office of Public Health. The median wage is CHF257,000 ($258,000). However, certain specialists can earn considerably more: neurosurgeons, for example, take home a median salary of CHF697,000 and gastroenterologists CHF627,000.

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Globalization Has Hollowed Out Rural America

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

Case Shiller Dallas, 2000 - 2018
What do we make of an economy in which a handful of bubblicious urban areas are magnets for jobs and capital while rural communities have been hollowed out? The short answer is that this progression of urbanization has been one of the core dynamics of civilization for thousands of years: opportunities are greater in cities, and so people move from rural areas with few opportunities to cities with greater opportunities.

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Smart Valor tackles cryptocurrency volatility problem

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

Cryptoasset trading platform Smart Valor plans to launch a new cryptocurrency pegged to the Swiss franc. The CHFt coin will join a growing list of so-called ‘stable coins’ designed to dampen the huge price swings of cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, which limits their everyday use. Smart Valor said on Monday that it is in talks with Swiss banks and cryptocurrency exchanges to issue CHFt.

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FX Daily, October 29: Market Awaits US Leadership

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

The Dollar index is trading within last Friday's trading ranges. The year's high, set on August 15, was just shy of 97.00. The euro continues to straddle the $1.14 level but is spending more time in Europe below there. There is a 1.5 bln euro option expiring today at $1.1350 and an almost 600 mln euro option at $1.1400 that will be cut.

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What Can Kill a Useless Currency, Report 28 Oct 2018

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Gold and Silver Price
There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it / . When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency. Redemptions Balanced With Deposits No national...

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Credit Conditions in the Euro Area Remain Supportive of Investment Recovery

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Euro Area Investment, 2005 - 2018
Investment is an important driver of the business cycle and a key determinant of potential growth. In the euro area, total investment makes up about 20% of GDP. Construction, machinery and equipment (including weapons systems), intellectual property rights and agricultural products account, respectively, for 48%, 32%, 18% and 2% of total investment.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Global equities have sold off hard. The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year. The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has matched the 11% loss back at the start of the year, but never truly recovering in between.

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What’s the Real Meaning of the Stock Market Swoon?

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

S&P 500 Large Cap Index, Jul 2017 - Oct 2018
Economy has reached peak earnings so there's no fundamentals-driven upside left. Bond yields are now high enough to dampen enthusiasm for inherently risky stocks. Central banks curtailing / ending their quantitative easing programs have reduced liquidity in the financial system. US markets are catching up to the rest of the world's market slump.

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PostBus may lose some routes after scandal

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Post Bus
The state-owned PostBus company is threatened with losing bus routes in several regions, following a scandal over illegal subsidies. Jura is the first canton that will put its 38 routes out to tender next spring, SonntagsZeitungexternal link has reported.

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