Tag Archive: line in sand

SNB Line in Sand Breaks, EUR/CHF under 1.08

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc
We have always emphasized that the SNB intervenes between 1.08 and 1.0850. Even if there was no change in sight deposits the 1.08 "line in sand" broke.

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SNB Balance Sheet Now Over 100 percent GDP

Since 2008 the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank has risen from 28% to 102% of Swiss GDP. Balance sheets of other central banks have strongly risen, too. But there is one big difference: The risk for the SNB is far higher, the SNB nearly exclusively possesses assets denominated in volatile foreign currency.

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SNB Balance Sheet Expansion

snb balance sheet expansion
Since 2008 the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank is 280% higher, this is the equivalent of 60% of Swiss GDP. So did most other central banks, too. But there is one big difference: The risk for the SNB is far higher, the SNB nearly exclusively possesses assets denominated in volatile foreign currency.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

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2012-06-09

Sell in May, Come back in October
  The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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The Line in Sand of 1.50 Collapses (December 2009, January 2010)

2010-01-26

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2010-01-26

euro swiss franc 2009-2010
Jan. 26th 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss Franc Pull up a 1-year chart of the Euro against the Swiss Franc, and you’ll quickly notice a salient trend: the exchange rate has hovered slightly above €1.50 since last March, with three notable deviations. The first occurred last March, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) …

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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions, December 2009

2009-12-31

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2009-12-31

baghdad bob
December 2009 EUR/CHF Selling Off EUR/CHF is down at 1.4835 from an early 1.4865, the swissy bulls happy to probe for signs of meaningful SNB interest.  Many are voicing surprise at the lack of interest being show by the Swiss National Bank to curtail the recent burgeoning swissy strength. There is talk of 1.4800 barrier … Continue reading »

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