Tag Archive: Jerome Powell

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that the Fed may ultimately need to go past neutral.

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Downslope CPI

Cushing, OK, delivered what it could for the CPI. The contribution to the inflation rate from oil prices was again substantial in August 2018. The energy component of the index gained 10.3% year-over-year, compared to 11.9% in July. It was the fourth straight month of double digit gains.

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What Fed Chair Powell Forgot to Mention

What are the chances of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell being wrong? The chances he’ll be wrong on the economy’s growth prospects, the direction of the federal funds rate, and inflation itself? Our guess is his chances of being wrong are quite high.

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Global Asset Allocation Update:

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Despite the selloff of the last week I don’t believe any portfolio action is warranted. While the overbought condition has largely been corrected now, the S&P 500 is far from the opposite condition, oversold. At the lows this morning, the S&P 500 was officially in correction territory, down 10% from the...

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Gold and Silver Get Powelled – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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FX Daily, June 29: Fragile Calm Ahead of Quarter-End

Sterling is firmer, but quarter-end considerations seem to be the key driver. Poor Japanese retail sales keep focus on policy response likely next month. New Zealand and Australian dollars are leading today's advance against the US dollar.

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FX Daily, May 27: Dollar Firms as Traders Await Yellen

The US dollar is winding down the week on a firm note, but still in a consolidative mode.  The euro and yen and Australian dollar are well within yesterday's ranges while sterling and the Canadian dollar pushing through yesterday's lows.  Asian ...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Some dovish signals from the Fed and a bounce in oil prices helped EM end last week on a firm note.  This week, the US retail sales report could be important, and the same goes for CPI and PPI data too.  The Fed?...

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Fed FOMC: Who is Hawk, Who is Dove? 2015 Update

Composition of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC composition), needed to know if the Fed is opting for quantitative easing or not.

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Brad DeLong on Jackson Hole and Quantitative Easing

  Berkeley Professor Brad DeLong has delivered a nice allegorical entry in his type pad on a quick Quantitative Easing. Letting speak old greek mythological figures he hides his personal opinion. A half now completely written platonic dialogue on what the Federal Reserve is Doing — or not Doing — Right Now DeLong explains the …

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Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?

  At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if  needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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