Tag Archive: Japan

FX Daily, January 04: Rising Equities and Slumping Dollar Greet the New Year

2021-01-04

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2021-01-04

Overview:  The first day of the New Year, but it feels a lot like last year.  The dollar is under pressure, and equities are higher.  Outside of Japan and Malaysia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended last week's 3.6% gain. It has not rallied for seven consecutive sessions.

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FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy.   In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. 

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Deflation Returns To Japan, Part 2

2020-11-23

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2020-11-23

Japan PMIs, 2018-2020
Japan Finance Minister Taro Aso, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, caused a global stir of sorts back in early June when he appeared to express something like Japanese racial superiority at least with respect to how that country was handling the COVID pandemic.

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FX Daily, November 20: US Treasury-Fed Dispute Spurs Handwringing but Immediate Market Impact was Exaggerated

2020-11-20

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2020-11-20

Overview:  News that the stimulus talks between the House Democrats and Senate Republicans was the excuse traders were looking for to extend the US equity gains yesterday, but shortly after the close, confirmation that Treasury was not going to agree to extend several Fed facilities sent stocks reeling. 

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FX Daily, November 18: Balancing Pandemic Surge with Optimism about Vaccine

2020-11-18

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2020-11-18

News that Tokyo will go to its highest alert as it faces a rising contagion snapped a 12-day rally in the Nikkei, but most bourses in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan advanced, though Chinese equities were mixed. European equities are narrowly mixed as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to gyrate within Monday's range.

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FX Daily, November 16: Risk-On Despite Surging Pandemic

2020-11-16

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2020-11-16

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 16
Despite the surging pandemic and new restriction measure, risk-appetites appear strong to start the week. Led by 2% gains in the Nikkei and Taiwan's Taiex, all of the Asia Pacific region's equity markets advanced. European markets have followed suit and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is knocking on last week's eight-month high.

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FX Daily, November 12: Nervous Calm in the Capital Markets

2020-11-12

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2020-11-12

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today.  The equity rally in the Asia Pacific region stalled to end an eight-day rally, though the Nikkei's rally remains intact. 

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FX Daily. October 29: Markets Continue to Struggle

2020-10-29

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2020-10-29

The spreading virus that is shutting down large parts of Europe, while the US is reluctant to return to lockdowns and refuses to have a nationwide requirement for masks in public hit risk assets yesterday.  The S&P posted its largest decline in four-months yesterday (~3.5%), and the selling carried into the Asia Pacific region.

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FX Daily, October 1: Hope Springs Eternal

2020-10-01

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2020-10-01

Speculation that a new round of fiscal stimulus from the US is possible is encouraging risk-taking today.  Many large Asian centers were closed for holidays today, and a technical problem prevented the Tokyo Stock Exchange from opening.

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FX Daily, September 24: Darkest Before Dawn

2020-09-24

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2020-09-24

The two recent market developments, push lower in stocks, and higher in the dollar is continuing. Tuesday's gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unwound on Wednesday and this is helping drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session today and many markets (India, Shenzhen, Taiwan, and Korea) fell more than 2% and most others were off more than 1%.

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Uh Oh, The Dollar Has Caught A Bid

2020-09-24

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2020-09-24

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, 2007-2020
Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008.

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Reopening Inertia, Asian Dollar Style (Still Waiting On The Crash)

2020-09-20

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2020-09-20

Why are there still outstanding dollar swap balances? It is the middle of September, for cryin’ out loud, and the Federal Reserve reports $52.3 billion remains on its books as of yesterday.

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Re-recession Not Required

2020-09-12

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2020-09-12

Japan Economy, 2013-2020
If we are going to see negative nominal Treasury rates, what would guide yields toward such a plunge? It seems like a recession is the ticket, the only way would have to be a major economic downturn. Since we’ve already experienced one in 2020, a big one no less, and are already on our way back up to recovery (some say), then have we seen the lows in rates?Not for nothing, every couple years when we do those (record low yields) that’s what “they”...

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FX Daily, September 11: Still Reluctant to take Euro above $1.19 but Sterling Remains Unloved

2020-09-11

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2020-09-11

Yesterday's roller-coaster price action has not had much impact on today's activity.  The slide in US equities after early gains failed to prevent Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong equities from advancing, though other markets in the region were not as resilient.

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Bottleneck In Japanese

2020-09-09

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2020-09-09

US / Japan, 2018-2020
Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening.

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FX Daily, September 4: Markets Look for more Solid Footing, but Need to Get Passed US Jobs Data

2020-09-04

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2020-09-04

The dramatic sell-off of US shares yesterday is the main focus, capturing the limelight from other forces, including today's US employment report.  It was the third-worst session for the S&P 500 since the March 23 bottom, and the other two did not see follow-through selling. 

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FX Daily, September 1: Dollar Lurches Lower

2020-09-01

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2020-09-01

The US dollar has been sold-off across the board. The euro approached $1.20, and sterling neared $1.3450. The greenback traded below CAD1.30 for the first time since January. Most emerging market currencies but the Turkish lira, are also advancing today.

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FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Gyrations and the Fed’s Ad Hocery

2020-08-31

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2020-08-31

Markets are searching for direction at month-end. Asia Pacific shares outside of Japan lower. Berkshire Hathaway confirmed taking a $6 bln stake in Japanese trading companies over the past year, and the pullback in the yen helped lift shares.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% last week. 

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FX Daily, August 28: Powell and Abe Drive Markets

2020-08-28

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2020-08-28

After a confused and volatile reaction to the Federal Reserve's formal adoption of an average inflation target, it took Asian and European traders to embrace the signal and take the dollar lower. It is falling against nearly all the currencies and has slumped to new lows for the year against sterling and the Australian dollar.

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FX Daily, August 26: Hurricane Laura Lifts Oil Prices

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

A consolidative tone has emerged after US equity benchmarks reached new highs yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index had reached seven-month highs on Tuesday, but Japan, China, and Australian stocks saw modest profit-taking today. European shares are recouping yesterday's minor loss, and US shares are flat. 

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