Tag Archive: Israel

Dollar Jumps, while Surge in Covid Cases Raise Questions about China’s Pivot

2022-11-21

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2022-11-21

Overview: Surging Covid cases in China and Hong Kong are undermining hopes of a Covid-pivot and the US dollar is broadly higher. Equities are under pressure to start the week. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific but Japan, fell earlier today. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is paring last week’s minor gain, which was the fifth consecutive weekly rise. US stock futures are lower, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is flat near 3.83%. European yields...

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Flash PMIs Play Second Fiddle to US PCE Deflator and Accelerating Inflation

2021-11-20

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2021-11-20

The flash November PMIs would be the main focus in the week ahead if it were more normal times.  But these are not normal times, and growth prospects are not the key driver of the investment climate.  This quarters' growth is largely baked into the cake.  The world's three largest economies, the US, China, and Japan, are likely to accelerate for different reasons in Q4 from Q3.  Europe is the weak sibling, and growth in the eurozone and UK may slow...

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FX Daily, January 19: Even When She Speaks Softly, She’s Yellen

2021-01-19

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2021-01-19

Overview: The animal spirits are on the march today.  Equities are mostly higher, peripheral European bonds are firm, and the dollar is mostly softer. After posting the first back-to-back decline this year, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index bounced back today, led by a 2.7% gain in Hong Kong (20-month high) and a 2.6% rise in South Korea's Kospi. 

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FX Daily, August 14: Consolidation Featured Ahead of the Weekend

2020-08-14

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2020-08-14

The equity rally is stalling ahead of the weekend. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region eased, though China and Australia advanced. Japanese shares were mixed. The Nikkei, though advanced for the fourth consecutive session, while the Topis slipped.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit.  The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic.  The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.

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FX Daily, September 17: Markets Calm(er)

2019-09-17

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2019-09-17

Overview: Oil prices have stabilized after yesterday's surge. Both Brent and WTI are holding on to around $7-$8 a barrel gain. Equity markets are mixed. Some are attributing the losses in Asia Pacific outside of Japan (Nikkei rose its highest level since late April), Korea and Australia to the rise in oil prices. European shares opened lower are straddling unchanged levels.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-09-17

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2018-09-17

EM FX ended mixed in Friday, capping off an up and down week. RUB and TRY initially firmed on their respective rate hikes but gave back some of those gains heading into the weekend. Trade tensions are likely to remain high, as press reports suggest President Trump is pushing ahead with tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese imports even as high-level talks are planned.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-08-27

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2018-08-27

EM FX was whipsawed last week but ended on a firm note. We look past the noise and believe that the true signals for EM remain higher US interest rates and continued trade tensions, both of which are negative. Turkish markets reopen after a week off. Nothing fundamentally has changed there, and so it still poses some spillover risk to wider EM.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-08-13

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2018-08-13

EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated. With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-06-25

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2018-06-25

Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus was named the new Governor of Malaysia’s central bank. Moody's cut the outlook on Pakistan's B3 rating to negative from stable. National Bank of Hungary tiled more hawkish. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife was charged with misusing public funds. MSCI added Saudi Arabia and Argentina to its Emerging Markets index.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-12

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2018-06-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies.  We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact.  Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point. 

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-21

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2018-05-21

Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-05-14

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2018-05-14

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-03-19

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2018-03-19

Hong Kong may impose a tax on unsold apartments as an effort to increase supply and cool off the housing market. Bank of Israel’s MPC had a split vote last month for the first time in three years. South Africa President Ramaphosa said the ANC wants Julius Malema of the opposition EFF to rejoin the party. Former South Africa President Zuma will face trial on 16 criminal charges.

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Emerging Markets: Preview Week Ahead

2018-03-12

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2018-03-12

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-26

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2018-02-26

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note and capped off a soft week overall. Best performers last week were ZAR, CLP, and PHP while the worst were TRY, ARS, and IDR. Fed Chief Powell’s testimony to Congress will likely draw market attention back to Fed policy.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-02-19

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2018-02-19

EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-02-17

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2018-02-17

The National Stock Exchange of India will end all licensing agreements and stop offering live prices overseas. Philippine central bank cut reserve requirements for commercial banks. Egypt cut rates for the first time since 2015. Israeli police recommended that Prime Minister Netanyahu be charged. South Africa President Zuma resigned before a no confidence vote was held.

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Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead, February 12

2018-02-12

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2018-02-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, as risk assets recovered a bit from broad-based selling pressures. Best EM performers on the week were ZAR, PHP, and CNY while the worst were COP, RUB, and ARS. Besides the risk-off impulses still reverberating through global markets, we think lower commodity prices are another headwind on EM.

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-01-08

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2018-01-08

EM FX was mostly firmer last week, but ended on a mixed note Friday. Best performers on the week for COP, MXN, and BRL while the worst were ARS, PHP, and CNY. We continue to warn investors against blindly buying into this broad-based EM rally, as we believe divergences will once again assert themselves in the coming weeks.

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