Tag Archive: Interest rates
Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…
Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy.
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Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change…
I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Same As It Ever Was
History never repeats itself. Man always does. Mark Twain is credited with a similar saying, that history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes. Of course, there is scant evidence that Clemens said anything of the sort just as Voltaire may or may not have penned the quote above. But both men were much wittier than I – than most – so I’ll take them both as being representative if not genuine.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Opposite George
It all became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I’ve ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat… It’s all been wrong.
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The Fed and GDP: Week Ahead
The outcome of the Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on July 27 is the most important event in
the last week of July. After a brief flirtation with a 100 bp hike after the June
CPI accelerated, the market has settled back to a 75 bp move. The Fed
funds futures are pricing about a 10% chance of a 100 bp
hike. The market anticipates that after the second 75 bp hike, the Fed will most likely return to a 50 bp hike in September. Fed...
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Weekly Market Pulse: A Most Unusual Economy
The employment report released last Friday was better than expected but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. Both found things in the report to support their preconceived notions about the state of the economy.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Things That Need To Happen
Perspective is something that comes with age I think. Certainly, as I’ve gotten older, my perspective on things has changed considerably. As we age, we tend to see things from a longer-term view.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Expand Your Horizons
Late last year I wrote a weekly update that focused on the speculative nature of the markets. In that article, I focused on the S&P 500 because I wanted to make a point, namely that owning the S&P 500 did not absolve investment advisers of their fiduciary duty.
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The End Game Approaches
The pendulum of market sentiment swings dramatically. It has swung from nearly everyone and their sister complaining that the Federal Reserve was lagging behind the surge in prices to fear
of a recession.
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Market Pulse: Mid-Year Update
Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other risky assets.
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Fed 50, BOE 25, and the BOJ to Stand Pat: Week Ahead
Three G7 central banks meet in the coming days, and they dominate the macro stage. The Federal Reserve's meeting concludes on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Bear Market Over?
Stocks had a rip snorter of a rally last week and a lot of people are pondering the question in the title over this long weekend. The S&P 500 was down 20.9% from intraday high (4818.62, January 4th) to intraday low (3810.32, May 20th). From that intraday low the market has risen 9.1% in just six trading days.
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Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch”. It has been around a long time – Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 – but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein’s 1966 book, “The Moon is a Harsh Mistress”.
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Peak Inflation (not what you think)
For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him?
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The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften
The Fed's 50 bp rate hike is behind us. Another 50 bp hike is expected next month. The April
employment report will do little to calm the anxiety about the "too tight" labor market.
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What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’
It’s one of those things which everyone just accepts because everyone says it must be true. If the US$ is rising, what else other than the Federal Reserve. In particular, the Fed has to be raising rates in relation to other central banks; interest rate differentials.
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Yen Blues
Benchmark 10-year bonds yields in the US and Europe are at new highs for the year. The US yield is approaching 2.90%, while European rates are mostly 5-8 bp higher. The 10-year UK Gilt yield is up nine basis points to push near 1.98%. The higher yields are seeing the yen's losing streak extend, and the greenback has jumped 1% to around JPY128.45 The dollar is trading lower against the other major currencies but the Swiss franc.
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A muddled message from The Fed
2022-07-29
by Stephen Flood
2022-07-29
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