Tag Archive: inflation

US and China’s October Inflation Featured in the Week Ahead

2021-11-07

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2021-11-07

The cycle of the major central bank meetings has passed.  The Anglo-American central banks and Norway are ahead among the high-income countries in the adjustment of monetary policy. Meanwhile, the pandemic continues to scar, and flare-ups are extending the economic and social disruption in some large countries, including China and Russia.  Parts of Europe are experiencing another wave, including Ireland, the UK, and Germany. From the RBA and ECB to...

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The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

2021-11-06

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2021-11-06

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed.

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Gold is Boring – That’s Why You Should Own It!

2021-11-04

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2021-11-04

Gold and silver price actions have been the opposite of dramatic for months now, they have been boring. In the last 100 days, gold has moved sideways in the US$100 range between $1725 and $1825. 

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Corruption of the currency and decivilization – Part II

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Many rational economists and students of history have written countless analyses on the gold standard and the terrible impact that its end has had on the world economy. However, as the Fall of Rome clearly demonstrates, the implications of the introduction of the fiat money system and of the limitless manipulation of the currency by the State reach much further.

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The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

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2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

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GDP Red Flag

2021-10-31

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2021-10-31

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%.

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Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

2021-10-28

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2021-10-28

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday.

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What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

2021-10-27

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2021-10-27

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods.

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An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

2021-10-26

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2021-10-26

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential.

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Big Week Begins Slowly

2021-10-25

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2021-10-25

Overview:  The global capital markets give little indication of the important economic and earnings data that lie ahead this week.  There is an eerie calm. Equities in Asia were mixed.  Japan and Hong Kong, and most small bourses were lower.  Last week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained almost 0.9%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed after rising about 0.5% last week. US futures are firm.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials reached...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!

2021-10-25

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2021-10-25

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10 year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we’re right back where we were at the end of March when the 10 year yield hit its high for the year.

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You Don’t Have To Take My Word For It About Eliminating QE

2021-10-24

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2021-10-24

You don’t have to take my word for it. QE doesn’t work and it never has. That’s not just my assessment, pull out any chart of interest rates for wherever gets the misfortune of having been wasted with one of these LSAP’s.

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Week Ahead: The First Look at US and EMU Q3 GDP and more Tapering by the Bank of Canada

2021-10-23

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2021-10-23

The macro highlights for the week ahead fall into three categories.  First are the preliminary estimates for Q3 GDP by the US and the EMU.  Second, are the inflation reports by the same two.  The US sees the September PCE deflator, which the Fed targets, while the eurozone releases the first estimate for October CPI.  Third are the meetings of three G7 central banks, the BOJ, the ECB, and the Bank of Canada. The broad backdrop includes softening...

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Why Do Central Banks Want Higher Inflation?

2021-10-23

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2021-10-23

Why do Central Banks want higher inflation? The debt ceiling debate in U.S. Congress and related political nonsense brings even more to light the exponential growth in US federal government debt. US government debt has doubled in the 10 years since the last major debacle Congress created over raising the debt ceiling back 2011.

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Far Longer And Deeper Than Just The Past Few Months

2021-10-20

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2021-10-20

Hurricane Ida swept up the Gulf of Mexico and slammed into the Louisiana coastline on August 29. The storm would continue to wreak havoc even as it weakened the further inland it traversed. By September 1 and 2, the system was still causing damage and disruption into the Northeast of the United States.

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Perfect Time To Review What Is, And What Is Not, Inflation (and why it matters so much)

2021-10-13

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2021-10-13

It is costing more to live and be, so naturally people are looking for who it is they need to blame. Maybe figure out some way to stop it. You know and feel for the basics since everyone’s perceptions begin with costs of just living. This is what makes the subject of inflation so difficult, even more so in the era of QE.

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The Dollar Slips Ahead of CPI

2021-10-13

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2021-10-13

 The US dollar is trading with a lower bias ahead of the September CPI report due early in the North American session.  Long-term yields softened yesterday and slipped further today, leaving the US 10-year yield near 1.56%.  European benchmark yields are 3-4 bp lower.  The shorter-end of the US coupon curve, the two-year yield is firmer.

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For The Love Of Unemployment Rates

2021-10-12

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2021-10-12

Here we are again. The labor force. The numbers from the BLS are simply staggering. During September 2021, the government believes it shrank for another month, down by 183,000 when compared to August. This means that the Labor Force Participation rate declined slightly to 61.6%, practically the same level in this key metric going back to June.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare?

2021-10-11

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2021-10-11

Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10 year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it.

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