Italy has three options: 1. exit the euro zone and devalue the currency; 2. remain in the euro zone and devalue salaries. 3. go for Japan-like decades-long slow growth with stagnating wages, but also with falling inflation and (positive news!) falling bond yields.
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Tag Archive: Five Star Movement
New Wrinkle in European Bail-In Efforts
European Court of Justice could rule on July 19 that private investors do not have to be bailed in before public money can be used to recapitalize banks. Italy stands to gain the most, at least immediately, from such a judgment. Italian bank shares recovered after initial weakness.
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FX Weekly Preview: Sources of Movement
Electoral politics remains significant. BOE is likely to cut rates, while BoC may tilt more dovishly. US Q2 earnings season formally begins.
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European Banks and Europe’s Never-Ending Crisis
Landfall of a “Told You So” Moment… Late last year and early this year, we wrote extensively about the problems we thought were coming down the pike for European banks. Very little attention was paid to the topic at the time, but we felt it was a typical example of a “gray swan” – a problem everybody knows about on some level, but naively thinks won’t erupt if only it is studiously ignored.
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FX Daily, June 6: Shallow Bounce in Dollar, though Sterling Pressured by Brexit Polls
With the dismal jobs reports, speculators had to buy euro to cover their shorts (mostly against USD, but also against CHF). This led to a rising EUR/CHF on Friday. Today fundamental rules were valid again: In times of slow growth, the Swiss franc appreciates. Hence EUR/CHF was down by 49 bips. After the …
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Guest Post: Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement
Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain
1) Rise of the Five Star Movement
2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.
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Der italienische Euro-Austritt: Warum er in 2-3 Jahren kommen kann und warum er Italien helfen wird
Silvio Berlusconi ist “endlich” zurück und Kandidat seines “Polo della Liberia (PDL) für die Wahlen 2013. Premierminister Monti, der nicht vom Volk, sondern von den Finanzeliten gewählt wurde, soll bis zum Frühjahr 2013 regieren, könnte aber aber auch früher zurücktreten. Aufgrund einer Umfrage im Juni würde die Anti-Euro-Bewegung “5 Stelle” 20,6% in Wahlen erhalten, Berlusconi’s …
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