Tag Archive: Europe

FX Daily, July 04: Four Things that Happened on the Anniversary of the Original Brexit

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

Inflation expectations fall in Japan. UK construction PMI fell sharply before Brexit. The Australian dollar recovers from the dip as investors await more results. It is not clear that Brexit has sparked a wave of nationalism or anti-EU sentiment.

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Money confuses and blurs economic relations

2016-06-30

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2016-06-30

Money, generally accepted medium of exchange, acts as a veil that confuse and blurs economic relations. This is especially true when it comes to intertemporal considerations. Whilst probably the most important institution in a free market, money can be highly destructive when politicized.

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Macro Thinking: FOMC, USD, and EU

2016-06-16

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2016-06-16

The Federal Reserve modified its stance yesterday without changing rates.  It is not just about how fast the Fed sees itself normalizing monetary policy but also where the level of the equilibrium rate. The FOMC statement, but especially the officials’ forecasts (dot plots) effective unwound the impact of the earlier Fed talk of the likely …

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Democratic Deficit: Is the UK Referendum the Tip of the Iceberg?

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research sur...

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How Italy will fail and drag down the European Project

2016-02-23

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2016-02-23

Italy is big enough to matter (it is the eight largest economy on the planet), but so uneventful that most does not pay any attention to what is going on there. We contend that Italy will, during the next year or two, be on everyone’s radar screen as it has the potential to derail the European project for real.

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The Great Unwind

2015-10-24

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2015-10-24

Over the decade long commodity boom made in China we have all been accustomed to the large and growing current account surpluses being recycled back into western financial security markets. Case in point, from 2000 to its peak in the fall of 2013 the...

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Emerging Markets and Global Oil Demand



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