Tag Archive: economy

Macro: GDP Q3 — Inflationary BOOM!

2023-12-22

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2023-12-22

Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years.

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Macro: Philly Fed Mfg Survey — Umm

2023-12-22

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2023-12-22

Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6.

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Macro: Banking: Senior Loan Officer’s Survey and Lending

2023-11-08

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2023-11-08

Banks continue to tighten lending standards across all sectors. This has eased a bit from the July survey. Banks continue to widen spreads across all sectors. The percentage of banks widening spreads has also eased a tad.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Monetary Policy Is Hard

2023-11-06

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2023-11-06

So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?  The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by...

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Macro: Employment Report

2023-11-03

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2023-11-03

Wall street cheered the fact that we added fewer jobs (150,000) than expected (179,000) in October. This was a welcome relief after the hot September number that was revised down from 336,000 to 279,000.

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Macro: Challenger Job Cuts — Improvement throughout the year

2023-11-02

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2023-11-02

We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989.

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Macro: Factory Orders — revision

2023-11-02

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2023-11-02

This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about. September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug.

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Swiss government plans to strengthen ties with Asia-Pacific region

2023-02-15

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2023-02-15

The Swiss government has for the first time adopted a regional strategy for the Asia-Pacific region for the period 2023-2026. The move takes into account the growing importance of the southeast Asia region and complements the government's China strategy, according to a government statement published on Wednesday.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Look Up In The Sky! It’s A UFO! Or Not!

2023-02-13

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2023-02-13

As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese “weather” balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven’t declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become so sprawling that it could easily be the case that NORAD has no idea what the NWS has up in the air.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Days Are Here Again!

2023-02-07

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2023-02-07

Your cares and troubles are gone There’ll be no more from now on! Happy days are here again! The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again Happy days are here again! Lyrics: Jack Yellen, Music: Milton Ager That’s certainly how it’s felt since the turn of the new year with the NASDAQ up nearly 15%, European stocks continuing to recover, emerging markets anticipating a Chinese recovery and a solid January for the S&P...

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Weekly Market Pulse: First, Kill All The Speculators

2023-01-31

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2023-01-31

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% – 4.75%. The market has factored in a small probability that they do nothing and leave rates alone, but they’ll probably do what’s expected because they’ve spent the last couple of months preparing the markets for exactly this outcome.

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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit

2023-01-24

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2023-01-24

Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months.

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A High Price is a Good Price – Under the Right Conditions

2023-01-23

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2023-01-23

Overpaying for something that could be found in a different store (or online), under the right circumstances, makes both parties happier. After looking around a bit, I asked the cashier at a nearby convenience store if he had any nine-volt batteries because I didn’t see any on the shelf. To my good fortune, he did. I asked for two of them and pulled a $5 bill out of my wallet as he rang them up.

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What happens if the debt ceiling raises

2023-01-20

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2023-01-20

It’s that time again when the US government has to prepare itself for an internal battle to raise the debt ceiling so it can meet various obligations. This is a merry dance that has been danced before, as we mention below.

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Forex Trading to Beat Inflation? The Key Considerations

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Inflation rates are continuing to rise across the globe, with the UK arguably leading this trend. More specifically, the UK inflation rate hit 10.7% in November, and while it dipped slightly from a peak of 11.1% in October, it remained considerably higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

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How To Design Corporate Budget For A Growing Company

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

The success of a business organization depends, to quite an extent, on the planning of resources. This planning keeps the business way above others. Budgeting, therefore, becomes a critical aspect of accounting. However, please keep in mind that financial planning in business is steeped in challenges because of the economic turmoil.

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Consensus Will Be Wrong

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Happy Holidays

2022-12-20

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2022-12-20

We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Envy

2022-12-12

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2022-12-12

Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair Charles Munger recently stated: “The world is not driven by greed.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Currency Illusion

2022-11-28

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2022-11-28

When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately,...

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