Tag Archive: ECB

Draghi Says Nothing to Undermine Expectations of New Action in December

2016-10-20

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2016-10-20

Euro storm
Extending or tapering QE was not discussed, but means little in terms of what the ECB decides in Sept. Draghi said growth risks are on the downside and inflation has yet to enter a meaningful uptrend. Reiterates that abrupt end of purchases is unlikely.

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ECB: Dovish Hold

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Draghi will like emphasis inflation is the key to policy and ECB is committed using allow for its technical tools to achieve its legal mandate. Key decisions will be made in December. The more the euro rises against sterling, the greater the pressure for the euro to fall against the dollar.

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Is the Gold Bull Market Over?

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

ABN Amro, Natixis and Wells Fargo have issued bearish calls on gold. Natixis even expects three Fed rate hikes next year. Pater Tanebrarum discusses these opinions critically.

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Key Events in the Week Ahead

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

Escher Esque
Of the forces driving prices in the week ahead, events appear more important than economic reports.There are four such events that investors must navigate.The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank meet. The UK High Court will deliver its ruling on the role of Parliament in Brexit.The rating agency DBRS updates its credit rating for Portugal.

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FX Daily, October 14: Firm Dollar Consolidating, Awaiting US Retail Sales

2016-10-14

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2016-10-14

FX Performance, October 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is firm against most of the major currencies, but within yesterday's ranges, which seems somewhat fitting amid the light new stream. The high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars are resisting the stronger greenback, while on the week the Aussie and the Canadian dollar are the only majors to gain.

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FX Daily, October 05: Euro Remains Firm Despite Dubious Tapering Story

2016-10-05

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2016-10-05

FX Performance, October 05 2016 Movers and Shakers
After the sudden rise to 1.0973 the EUR/CHF is falling again. The volatiliy is related to the CHF speculative postion, that suddenly was Short CHF. Traders that moved with the SNB Window Dressing for Q3 are closing their shorts again.

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FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

FX Performance 2016, September 28 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee.

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FX Daily, September 27: US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

2016-09-27

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2016-09-27

FX Performance September 27, 2016
Since the monetary assessment meeting, the EUR/CHF is trending downwards. Sight deposits indicate that the SNB is intervening 0.9 bn per week. We emphasized that the preferred intervention corridor is between 1.08 and 1.0850. The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso. The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the...

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FX Daily, September 9: Ahead of the Weekend

2016-09-09

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2016-09-09

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays. The streak may end today. The euro has found support nearly $1.1260, and the intraday technicals favor a move higher in the US morning.

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Swiss stocks fluctuate as central bank decisions dominate the landscape

2016-09-09

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2016-09-09

The Swiss Market Index, along with other European markets, fluctuated this week as central bank decisions dominated the landscape. Equity markets advanced at the beginning of the week as chances of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates later this month declined after a surprisingly weak report on the US service-sector earlier this week.

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FX Daily, August 31: Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead

2016-08-31

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2016-08-31

The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month. The tone is consolidative as the market awaits assurances that the jobs growth this month has been sufficiently strong as to keep the prospects of a September meeting still alive.

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Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds

2016-08-30

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2016-08-30

The neutral or natural interest rate is linked to potential growth. Potential growth has fallen so has the neutral rate. The implication is that the FOMC has made the bulk of the adjustment on its long-term Fed funds forecast.

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Gains Extended, but Momentum Fades

2016-08-29

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2016-08-29

The US dollar staged a strong pre-weekend rally on hints that the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year. There was initially follow through dollar buying in Asia before a more stable tone emerged in Europe, where London markets are closed for a bank holiday. The easing of the dollar’s upside momentum may set the stage for a bout of profit-taking later today and tomorrow.

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Loose Monetary Policy and Social Inequality

2016-08-29

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2016-08-29

It has been almost eight years since former U.S. President George W. Bush warned the world that “without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic and a distressing scenario would unfold.” The government’s response to the crisis was a USD700 billion rescue package that was supposed to prevent U.S. banks from collapsing and encourage them to resume lending, which was soon to be followed by a series of Quantitative...

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen Pushes Divergence Front and Center

2016-08-28

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2016-08-28

The summer dynamics of the capital markets has changed by the enhanced prospects of a Fed hike. Equity markets and other risk assets look particularly vulnerable. Sterling may do better against the euro than the dollar.

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Great Graphic: GDP Per Capita Selected Comparison

2016-08-24

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2016-08-24

US population growth has been greater than other major centers that helps explain why GDP has risen faster. GDP per capita has also growth faster than other high income regions. The US recovery is weak relative to post-War recoveries but it has been faster than anticipated after a financial crisis and shows little evidence of secular stagnation.

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FX Daily, August 19: Dollar Recovers into the Weekend

2016-08-19

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2016-08-19

The US dollar is trading firmly ahead of the weekend as part of this week's losses are recouped. The euro is trading within yesterday's range, holding to a little more than a half-cent above $1.13. However, as we have noted, the Asia and European participants appear more dollar-friendly than Americans

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FX Weekly Preview: Thoughts on the Significance of Ten Developments

2016-08-14

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2016-08-14

The GDP deflator may be just as important as overall growth for BOJ considerations and the possibility of fresh action next month. Falling UK rates and a weaker pound are desirable from a policy point of view. Dudley's press conference may be more important than FOMC minutes. Two German state elections that will be held next month comes as Merkel's popularity has waned.

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FX Weekly Preview: Light Economic Calendar Week Allows New Thinking on Macro

2016-08-07

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2016-08-07

Policy outlook is clear: ECB and BOJ review next month, FOMC still looking for opportunity. Inventory cycle making quarterly US GDP forecasting difficult, but it looks like re-acceleration still the more likely scenario than recessions. Why didn't European bank stress tests results have more impact?

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