Tag Archive: ECB

FX Weekly Preview: The Macro Backdrop at the Start of the Second Quarter

2017-04-03

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2017-04-03

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year. The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical. The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it may not be several more months.

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The Power of Oil

2017-04-02

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2017-04-02

Oil Prices WTI, May 2007 - 2017
For the first time in 57 months, a span of nearly five years, the Fed’s preferred metric for US consumer price inflation reached the central bank’s explicit 2% target level. The PCE Deflator index was 2.12% higher in February 2017 than February 2016. Though rhetoric surrounding this result is often heated, the actual indicated inflation is decidedly not despite breaking above for once.

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FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

2017-03-17

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2017-03-17

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of normalization, while the market remains profoundly skeptical of even its current indications, and perceptions that the ECB and BOE can raise earlier than anticipated weighed on the dollar. The PBOC...

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Economic Dissonance, Too

2017-03-04

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2017-03-04

Germany Industrial Production, SA 1997-2016
Germany is notoriously fickle when it comes to money, speaking as much of discipline in economy or industry as central banking. If ever there is disagreement about monetary arrangements, surely the Germans are behind it. Since ECB policy only ever attains the one direction, so-called accommodation, there never seems to be harmony.

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Draghi Lets Steam out of Euro

2017-01-19

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2017-01-19

eurodeflate
US reported stronger than expected series of data, including a large drop in weekly jobless claims for the week of the next NFP survey. Draghi remained dovish, with key phrases retained. Euro needs to break $1.0575 now to confirm a top is in place. Markets still uncertain ahead of the start of the new Administration.

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FX Daily, December 08: Dollar Heavy into ECB

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

FX Performance, December 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The ECB prolonged its bond purchases, which came unexpected for markets. Consequently the EUR/CHF lost nearly half of its big gains that it registered in the beginning of the week. The ECB expects lower inflation for longer, which makes the life for the SNB harder for longer.

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ECB: Dovish Taper or Hawkish Ease?

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Mario Draghi
Purchases increased for longer but at a lower level; overall, more purchases than anticipated. Euro spiked higher on the announcement, but has subsequently dropped 2 cents. Lower inflation forecast for 2019 shows scope for a further extension.

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Cool Video: Discussing the ECB on Bloomberg TV

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Marc Chandler
Tired of reading what analysts are saying? Here is a 4.3 minute video clip of my discussion earlier today on Bloomberg TV about the outlook for tomorrow's ECB meeting. The discussion covers various aspects of the ECB's decision.

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ECB and the Future of QE

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

ECB will likely extend asset purchases in full. It may modify the rules by which it buys securities. It may adjust the rules of engagement for its securities lending program.

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FX Weekly Preview: Focus Shifts toward Europe

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

Economic Events: Eurozone, Week December 05
US developments have driven the dollar rally and bond market decline over the past three weeks. Attention shifts to European politics and the ECB meeting. Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia meet but are unlikely to change policy.

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Short Summary on US Thanksgiving

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Turkey
Euro fell to new 20-month lows before steadying. The dollar extended its recovery against the yen. Emerging markets remained under pressure, and Turkey's central bank surprised with a 50 bp hike in the repo rate.

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Former CEO Of UBS And Credit Suisse: “Central Banks Are Past The Point Of No Return, It Will All End In A Crash”

2016-11-21

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2016-11-21

Remember when bashing central banks and predicting financial collapse as a result of monetary manipulation and intervention was considered "fake news" within the "serious" financial community, disseminated by fringe blogs? In an interview with Swiss Sonntags Blick titled appropriately enough "A Recession Is Sometimes Necessary", the former CEO of UBS and Credit Suisse, Oswald Grübel, lashed out by criticizing the growing strength of central banks...

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FX Daily, October 27: Rising Yields Continue to be the Main Driver

2016-10-27

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2016-10-27

FX Performance, October 27 2016 Movers and Shakers
The euro remains pinned near the seven-month low it recorded two days ago near $1.0850. It approached $1.0950 yesterday and has been confined to about a 15-tick range on either side of $1.0905 today. Against the yen, the dollar remains near the three-month high (~JPY104.85) also seen two days ago. New dollar buying emerged yesterday near JPY104.

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FX Daily, October 25: Germany IFO, Dollar Going Nowhere

2016-10-25

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2016-10-25

FX Performance, October 25 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar has been confined to extremely narrow ranges against the euro, yen, and sterling. To the extent that there is much action in the foreign exchange market, it is with the dollar-bloc and emerging market currencies.The Canadian dollar was whipsawed by comments from the Bank of Canada.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement in the Week Ahead

2016-10-24

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2016-10-24

opticalillusion
Fitch cut Italy's rating outlook to negative from stable, while DBRS left Portugal's rating and outlook unchanged. Europe and Canada's free trade negotiations broke down, but many seem to be making exaggerating the significance of the drama. Japan and Australia report inflation figures, and both are exceptions to the generalization that price pressures are rising in (most) high income countries.

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Great Graphic: Italian Banks and a German Bank

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

DB and Italian bank stocks have been moving in tandem. They suffer from fundamentally different problems. The euro has been selling off as the bank shares rebound.

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Cool Video: Double Bloomberg Feature–ECB and US Baby Boomers

2016-10-21

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2016-10-21

Double Feature
This afternoon I had the privilege of being on Bloomberg TV, with anchors Scarlet Fu and Matt Miller. I was joined by an old market friend Bob Sinche. We had a lively discussion (what did you expect?) on two issues. The first was on the ECB. At his press conference earlier today, Draghi indicated that the question of extending QE and tapering was not discussed.

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Draghi Says Nothing to Undermine Expectations of New Action in December

2016-10-20

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2016-10-20

Euro storm
Extending or tapering QE was not discussed, but means little in terms of what the ECB decides in Sept. Draghi said growth risks are on the downside and inflation has yet to enter a meaningful uptrend. Reiterates that abrupt end of purchases is unlikely.

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ECB: Dovish Hold

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Draghi will like emphasis inflation is the key to policy and ECB is committed using allow for its technical tools to achieve its legal mandate. Key decisions will be made in December. The more the euro rises against sterling, the greater the pressure for the euro to fall against the dollar.

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