Tag Archive: Currency Movement

FX Daily, October 24: Flash PMIs Disappoint Despite Negative Interest Rates

2019-10-24

by

2019-10-24

Overview: As the UK awaits the EU's decision on its request, disappointing flash PMI readings Japan, Australia, and Germany have filled the news vacuum. Sweden's Riksbank retained a hawkish tone while keeping rates on hold, and Norway's Norges Bank also stood pat. The market expects Turkey to deliver a rate cut, while the ECB meeting is Draghi's last at the helm.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 23: Markets Lack Much Conviction, Await Fresh Developments

2019-10-23

by

2019-10-23

Overview: UK Prime Minister Johnson is neither dead in a ditch as he said he would prefer to be than request an extension of Brexit, nor will the UK leave the EU at the end of the month. Yesterday's vote rejected the attempt to fast-track the legislation needed to support the divorce agreement. It all but ensures that such a delay will be forthcoming.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 22: Trudeau will Lead a Coalition Government in Canada, while the UK’s Johnson Fights Another Day

2019-10-22

by

2019-10-22

Overview: Bismark is said to have warned that laws were like sausages, and to respect them, one ought not to see how they are made. The UK had a non-binding referendum more than three years ago, and although it won by 52%-48% and the party leaders committed to adhering to the results, it still cannot figure out how to leave.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Soft, but Stage is being Set for Turn Around Tuesday

2019-10-21

by

2019-10-21

Overview: The UK's departure from the EU remains up in the air as a new attempt to pass the necessary legislation through Parliament continues today. Many market participants seem to remain optimistic that Prime Minister Johnson's plan will ultimately succeed. After slipping to $1.2875 initially, sterling briefly pushed through $1.30, which had held it back last week.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 17: EU-UK Deal Sends Sterling and the Euro Higher

2019-10-17

by

2019-10-17

Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific is consolidated after gaining for the past four sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 16: Fickle Market Tempers Enthusiasm

2019-10-16

by

2019-10-16

Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-$50 bln of US agriculture goods over two years, makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same time, Hong Kong is becoming another front in the US-Sino confrontation.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 15: Non-Disruptive Brexit Hopes Remain Elevated

2019-10-15

by

2019-10-15

Overview: Ideas that a Brexit deal may be close is helping to firm sterling, while soft Chinese PPI offset the spike in food prices to show the weakness of the world's second-largest economy. Minutes from the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this month kept a door open to a rate cut before the end of the year.  Japan returned from holiday, and the Nikkei gapped higher, and its nearly 1.9% advance led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...

Read More »

FX Daily, October 10: Setback for the Greenback

2019-10-10

by

2019-10-10

Conflicting headlines about US-China trade whipsawed the markets in Asia, but when things settled down, perhaps, like the partial deal that has been hinted, net-net little has changed. Asian equities were mixed, with the Nikkei, China's indices, and HK gaining, while most of the others slipped lower. The 0.9% gain in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to lift European stocks, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is near the week's lows.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 9: Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

2019-10-09

by

2019-10-09

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 7: Markets Unsettled to Start the Week

2019-10-07

by

2019-10-07

Overview: The global capital markets are uneasy as the risks that have dominated investors' concerns--trade and Brexit--remain front and center today. Expectations are low that this week's talks between the US and China will lead to a breakthrough or will be sufficient to postpone further the next round of tariff increases set for next week. 

Read More »

FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

2019-10-04

by

2019-10-04

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 3: Shades of Q4 18?

2019-10-03

by

2019-10-03

Overview:  Disappointing economic data again drove US equities lower, which in turn carried into Asia Pacific activity. Losses were recorded throughout the region, with the notable exception of Hong Kong. The Nikkei and Australia's ASX were off by 2%. After its largest losing session of the year (-2.7%) yesterday, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to trade heavily.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 2: Greenback Shows Resiliency, Stocks Don’t

2019-10-02

by

2019-10-02

Shockingly poor ISM data sent shivers through the market on Tuesday and hand the S&P 500 its biggest loss in five weeks and took the shine off the greenback. The S&P 500 reached a five-day high before reversing course and cast a pall over today's activity.  All the markets were lower in Asia Pacific, with China and India closed for holidays.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 1: Dollar Jumps to Start New Quarter

2019-10-01

by

2019-10-01

Overview: The US dollar is rising against nearly every currency today as global growth concerns deepen. Japan's Tankan Survey showed large manufacturers confidence is a six-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 25 bp as widely expected and kept the door open for more. The final EMU PMI ticked up from the flash, but it is still at a seven-year low.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 30: A Busy Week Begins Quietly

2019-09-30

by

2019-09-30

Overview: As the quarter ends, the capital markets are mixed. Equities in Asia Pacific were heavier, except in Hong Kong and Australia, while shares were mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed through the European morning. US shares are trading firmer. Benchmark 10-year bond yields are 2-3 basis points higher, though Australia's bond yield was up seven basis points.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 27: Markets Limp into the Weekend with the Euro Languishing at New Lows and Sterling under Pressure

2019-09-27

by

2019-09-27

Overview: Equities remain under pressures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lower today, though Chinese and Australian shares were firmer. It is the second consecutive week the benchmark has fallen. European equities are firmer, but not enough to offset the losses earlier this week and are set to snap a five-week advance.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm

2019-09-26

by

2019-09-26

Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday's disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is that it is a black box: is difficult to verify and lends itself to misuse as a catch-all explanation.  Nevertheless, the rise in US equities yesterday helped...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 25: Risk Appetite Stymied: Dollar Recovers while Stocks Slide

2019-09-25

by

2019-09-25

Overview:  Global equities and fixed income reacted to the large moves yesterday in the US when the 10-year note yield fell eight basis points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.85%.  Investors have focused on three separate developments and two of which came from President Trump's speech at the UN.  He dismissed the likelihood of a short-term trade deal with China and was critical of the large social media platforms.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 24: UK Supreme Court Deals another Defeat to Johnson

2019-09-24

by

2019-09-24

Overview: A fragile calm hangs over the capital markets today.  Equities in Asia Pacific were narrowly mixed.  Japan, China, and HK advanced. India saw some profit-taking after a two-day surge in response to the unexpected corporate tax cuts but recovered in late dealings. European shares are recovering after posting its largest loss in a month yesterday (-0.8%). US shares are trading firmer in Europe.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 23: Dreadful European Flash PMI Drags the Euro Lower

2019-09-23

by

2019-09-23

Overview: The critics who claim the ECB's policy response was disproportionate got a rude shock today with the unexpected weakness revealed by the flash PMI. The euro looks to re-visit the lows set recently near $1.0925. Sentiment has also been eroded by the poor South Korean export figures. Asia Pacific equities moved lower, though Tokyo markets were closed. Indian equities, however, continue their pre-weekend surge.

Read More »