Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Self-Inflicted Wounds in Europe and Japan Help the Greenback Shrug Off the Drag of Lower Rates

Overview: The dollar is bid. What makes its performance standout is that it is taking place as US rates have fallen. The US 10-year yield is near 4.20%, the lowest in more than two months. The two-year yield is near 4.67%. It has fallen every session this week for a cumulative decline of more than 20 bp. It is not so much that constructive developments took week, but that Europe and Japan are suffering from self-inflicted injury. Macron's call for...

Read More »

Dollar Comes Back Bid

Overview: The dollar fell alongside US rates yesterday after the softer than expected CPI. The move on both rates and the dollar were pared after the FOMC meeting which held rates steady as widely expected, but the median dot now anticipated one cut this year rather than three. The dollar has recovered more ground today and is trading with a slightly firmer bias G10 currencies. However, trading is quiet and mostly narrow ranges have dominated....

Read More »

Greenback Remains Firm, Still Driest Towel on the Rack

Overview:  The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets re-opened from...

Read More »

Euro Sold After EU Parliament Elections and Macron’s Gambit

Overview:  With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to...

Read More »

The Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of the Employment Report

Overview: The dollar is little changed against the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report. It has been trading heavier than we expected given that two more G10 central banks cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve.

Read More »

The Euro Remains Firm Ahead of the First Time the ECB will Cut Rates Before the Federal Reserve

Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, ahead of tomorrow's employment report. The ECB meeting and President Lagarde's press conference are main events today. There is little doubt that it will cut rates today and do so ahead of the Federal Reserve for the first time. The ECB's forward guidance may be the key to the market's reaction. That said, the euro is in the upper end of its recent range, near $1.09. The Mexican peso, which was crushed...

Read More »

Yen Unwinds Yesterday’s Gains, while the Mexican Peso and Indian Rupee Stabilize

Overview: The foreign exchange market is calmer today than Monday and Tuesday, and the dollar is mixed. The yen, which rallied, yesterday, has given back most of its gains and the wage data gave the market second thoughts about next week's BOJ meeting. The Mexican peso, which has been sold aggressively in the face of the strong election showing of the Morena party and allies, is the strongest currency today, though the greenback is holding above...

Read More »

Dollar Recovers from Yesterday’s Slide, but Slumps Against the Yen

Overview: The dollar's losses scored after yesterday's disappointing ISM manufacturing report were extended initially in Asia Pacific turnover earlier today before it recovered. The recovery has stretched the intraday momentum indicators, warning against expected strong follow-through dollar buying in North America, without fresh impetus.

Read More »

Election Results Lift India But Weigh on Mexico

The dollar has returned from the weekend with a better bid tone. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are marginally firmer. The market seems reluctant to extend the euro or Canadian dollar upticks ahead of the central bank meetings this week, though, ironically, sterling's 0.25% decline leads the major currencies. Election news is a key driver today.

Read More »

Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing...

Read More »

Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?

Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10 currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for the...

Read More »

Stocks and Bonds Retreat; Greenback Extends Recovery but Little Changed Ahead of North American Session

Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10 currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states' CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most emerging...

Read More »

The Greenback is Mostly Softer

Overview: The dollar initially extended its pre-weekend and yesterday's heavier tone before finding a better bid in the European morning. Still, as North American dealers return to their posts the dollar is still mostly softer against the G10 currencies, but it is little changed to slightly firmer against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, but the South African rand is softer ahead of their election, the Mexican peso is...

Read More »

Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend

Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday...

Read More »

After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer

Overview:  The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is...

Read More »

UK CPI Disappoints

Overview: A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a firmer than expected UK CPI reading have allowed the New Zealand dollar and sterling to show resilience in the face of the US dollar's broadly firmer tone. And even there, the Kiwi and pound have seen their early gains pared. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies today and has fallen to a new 12-month low against the euro. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Central...

Read More »

Jump in Japanese Bond Yields Fails to Lift the Yen

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. Most of the G10 currencies are +/- 0.1% against the dollar. The crash that took the of Iran's president and foreign minister may have helped lift gold to new record highs ($2450), the impact seems more muted, as poor weather rather than foul play, seems to be main narrative. July WTI reached nearly $80, its best level since May 1 but is hovering around unchanged levels (~$79.50). Canadian markets are...

Read More »

The Dollar Continues To Recover

Overview: The dollar's recovery begun yesterday has extended into today's activity. The greenback is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies, but the Indian rupee and Mexican peso. The BOJ did not reduce its bond buying at today's operation and the market sold the yen on the news. After reaching JPY153.60 yesterday, the greenback is near JPY156 now. New initiatives to support the beleaguered property market was not...

Read More »