Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Greenback Slump Extended

2025-08-13

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2025-08-13

Overview: The US dollar is under pressure. The losses seen yesterday have been extended against nearly all the G10 currencies. It is also lower against all the emerging market currencies but the Turkish lira and Russian ruble. There were some murmurings the Fed cutting 50 bp next month, and Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested it may …

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RBA Delivers Dovish Cut, UK’s Labor Market Stabilizes, Attention now US CPI

2025-08-12

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2025-08-12

Overview: There were three highlights for today and two, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the UK's labor market update are behind us. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish cut after last month's hawkish hold. It signaled scope for two more rate cuts. The UK's labor market appeared to …

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Greenback Steadies Ahead of Tomorrow’s CPI

2025-08-11

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2025-08-11

Overview: With Japanese markets closed for Mountain Day and a quiet summer Monday in Europe, activity in the foreign exchange market is subdued. It may continue in North America today, ahead of tomorrow’s CPI. Most of the G10 currencies are in narrow ranges and +/- 0.2% against the US dollar. Emerging market currencies are mostly …

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US Tariffs Roil Gold Futures, while Greenback Steadies

2025-08-08

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2025-08-08

Overview: Most the dollar's late sell-off yesterday after the White House endorsed Stephen Miran to fill the remainder of Governor Kugler's term at the Federal Reserve has been recouped today. In mostly narrow ranges, the greenback is firmer against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar and sterling. The dollar is also trading with a …

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Anticipated BOE Rate Cut Doesn’t Prevent Sterling from Pushing Higher

2025-08-07

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2025-08-07

Overview: After selling off sharply last Friday, the US dollar consolidated on Monday and Tuesday before taking another leg lower yesterday. It remains under pressure today, though it has stabilized in late European morning turnover, though even a dismal German industrial production report was unable to deter the euro from rising to almost $1.17. It …

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Consolidative Phase Continues in FX Market as Key Events Loom

2025-08-06

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2025-08-06

Overview: The US dollar's July rally came to an abrupt end last Friday and continues to mostly consolidate as new developments are awaited. In particular, the nomination for Governor Kugler's successor on the Federal Reserve Board may trigger the next act in the drama, though the market now is considerably more comfortable with the idea …

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Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So

2025-07-31

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2025-07-31

No commentary on Friday but August monthly drops Saturday.  Daily commentary to resume Wednesday, August 6. Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more …

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Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session

2025-07-30

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2025-07-30

Overview:  Ahead of an important North American session, the US dollar has a slightly softer tone in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars are laggards, with small losses. The yen and sterling are the strongest with around 0.2-0.3% gains. The North American session features the Bank of Canada and FOMC …

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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow’s Key Events

2025-07-29

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2025-07-29

Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American participants can extend it. We suspect that the market will turn more cautious now, ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting outcome, where many still expect at least one dovish …

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Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro

2025-07-28

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2025-07-28

Overview: The US and EU struck a trade deal that is less onerous than threatened and reduces the uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. In May, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on most EU goods, and yesterday, agreed to 15% (including autos and pharma, but not metals). There seems to be some debate over whether …

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Chinese Yuan and Australian Dollar Reach New 2025 Highs

2025-07-24

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2025-07-24

Overview: With a US-Japanese deal in hand, and the prospects of an extended tariff truce between the US and China, many perceive some tail risks associated with the US foreign economic policy have diminished. This has encouraged the animal spirits and helped drive equity prices higher. The dollar is mixed. The uptick in Australia's PMI …

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Trade Deals Bolster Risk Appetites

2025-07-23

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2025-07-23

Overview: The US has struck a trade deal with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested the August 12 end of the US-China tariff truce will likely be extended next week. The dollar bloc leads the G10 currencies higher amid some creeping optimism, while the euro is the laggard, off about …

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Tokyo Returns and Yen Stabilizes after Yesterday’s Jump

2025-07-22

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2025-07-22

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The greenback is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside thinner traded New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone, the other currencies are mostly +/- 0.1%. Emerging market currencies are also mixed and mostly +/- 0.2%. The approaching August 1 expiration of the postponement of US "reciprocal tariffs" …

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Yen Jumps as Governing Coalition Loses Majority in Upper House

2025-07-21

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2025-07-21

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week with a softer bias, but it still needs to run the North American gauntlet, which has tended to be more constructive than other centers recently. As seemed likely, less than a year after losing its majority in the lower, the LDP and Komeito coalition lost its majority …

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Waller may be Alone in Advocating July Rate Cut, but it Weighs on the Greenback

2025-07-18

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2025-07-18

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against most G10 and emerging market currencies today. The dollar seemed to lose its bid late yesterday after Federal Reserve Governor Waller argued in favor a rate cut at this month's meeting, despite the TIC data that showed foreign investors bought more US securities in May than they …

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Trial Balloon to Fire Powell went over like a Lead Zeppelin

2025-07-17

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2025-07-17

Overview: A natural experiment of sorts unfolded yesterday. Heightened speculation, fanned in part by the White House itself, that after several threats, President Trump was going to fire Fed Chair Powell. Short-term rates fell but the curve steepened, the greenback sold off sharply, and stocks skidded lower. The main narrative is that seeing the carnage, …

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USD Steadies after Yesterday’s Surge, but Does it have Legs?

2025-07-16

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2025-07-16

Overview: The dollar has steadied today after yesterday's jump. Asia and Europe do not seem to be as enthusiastic about the dollar as North America seemed to be yesterday. President Trump indicated that sectoral tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals could be announced as early as August 1. He also said that there will be …

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Greenback Slips Ahead of June CPI

2025-07-15

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2025-07-15

Overview: The US dollar is trading somewhat heavier against the G10 currencies but the Scandis today, ahead of the US CPI report. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The last few CPI readings were softer than expected, but economists continue to look for firmer price pressures. Late yesterday, the US announced a 17% tariff …

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Market Recognizes US Tariff Threats as Negotiation Tactics and Sees Through New Front in Criticism of Powell

2025-07-14

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2025-07-14

Overview: The market has taken the US threat of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico in stride. Both currencies wobbled a little but are little changed as the North American session is about to start. Participants seem to recognize the threat as a tactic meant to increase the pressure to negotiate (i.e., make new …

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US Tariffs Unsettle the Markets while the UK’s May GDP Unexpectedly Contracted

2025-07-11

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2025-07-11

Overview: The US 35% tariff on Canada and President Trump's threat to have a 15%-20% universal tariff rather than 10% provides today's disruption. A tariff letter for the EU is awaited but seeing how the US treated Canada and Brazil (with whom the US has a trade surplus) warns of the risk to Europe. That …

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