Tag Archive: Currency Movement

Investors Find Hope in the Fog of War

2026-03-10

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2026-03-10

The markets have put much stock in President Trump’s signal that the war on Iran may be nearly over. News today suggests that the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked and several European countries have committed more military hardware to defend the UAE. In the fog of war, public pronouncements are part of the war … Continue...

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Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100

2026-03-09

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2026-03-09

The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil producers to shut down output due to limited storage capacity. Sulfur and urea supplies are also being disrupted, as is natural gas and …

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War Continues to Roil the Markets

2026-03-06

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2026-03-06

The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen, where the JPY158 level is coming under pressure. Still, the yen, despite Japan’s reliance on imported oil and refined products is the …

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War-Driven Markets

2026-03-05

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2026-03-05

The Gulf War continues rage. China has reportedly told top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline. The disruption is beginning to impact shipments of fertilizer, chemicals, aluminum, as well as natural gas and oil fuels. In the next few days, several countries will reportedly run out of storage capacity and will have …

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Nervous Consolidation Featured after the Asia Pacific Equity Rout was Extended

2026-03-04

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2026-03-04

The dollar is trading a little softer today, but the tone is one of nervous consolidation. The market is digesting reports that Iran has reached out to negotiate the end of the war. The fog of war continues to cast a heavy pall over the markets, though there is a hope that the war can … Continue reading...

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The Dollar is the Only Game in Town

2026-03-03

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2026-03-03

If this is World War 3, the world wants dollars. The greenback is broadly higher but hardly anything else is. Other safe haven, like gold, the Swiss franc, and US Treasuries are lower. Equity markets have been sold off and the rally in oil is taking a toll on bond markets. The Middle East war is … Continue reading »

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Dollar Jumps on War, but Treasuries are No Safe Haven

2026-03-02

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2026-03-02

There is one fundamental driver today and that is the Middle East war. After finishing last week on a soft note, the greenback has rallied. It is up by 0.5% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar, which often performs relatively better in a strong US dollar environment is off the … Continue...

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PBOC Steadies the Yuan, Denmark Calls Snap Election, Greens’ Win the UK Special Election

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

The US dollar is mostly softer today as North American participants enter the fray. Trading remains quiet and the general consolidative tone continues amid a relatively quiet news stream. Although US and Iranian talks are set to continue next week, the market remains on edge. There are three developments to note. First, the PBOC abolished the …

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Yen and Yuan Gains Featured in Quiet FX Market

2026-02-26

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2026-02-26

In a reversal of fortunes, the Japanese yen is the only G10 currency that is gaining on the dollar through the European morning. Yesterday, it was the only G10 currency to have weakened against the greenback. Still, the general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. The notable exception is the Chinese …

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Yen and JGBs Sold on New BOJ Nominees While Japanese Stocks Rally to Record Highs

2026-02-25

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2026-02-25

The dollar was initially sold during President Trump’s State of the Union Address. However, against most of the G10 currencies, it remains within the well-worn ranges, which may be reinforced by a busy option expiration schedule, we discuss below. There are two notable exceptions. First, is the Japanese yen, which sent to more than two-week …

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Yen Slides on a Double Whammy

2026-02-24

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2026-02-24

The US dollar is mostly slightly firmer against the most of the G10 currencies but largely confined to its recent ranges. The yen is the notable exception. Beijing announced it is sanctioning more Japanese companies with military ties and put others on a watch-list, which no doubt will have a cooling effect. At the same … Continue...

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When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done

2026-02-23

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2026-02-23

The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure earlier today in the Asia Pacific session, in which Tokyo was closed for a national holiday. It clawed its way back in Europe and is now narrowly … Continue reading...

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Tariff Decision Day?

2026-02-20

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2026-02-20

The US dollar is trading mostly firmer but quietly in what could be a volatile North American session. It is not just about the US data, of which there is plenty—including the PCE deflator and the first look at Q4 GDP, the preliminary February PMI and the University of Michigan’s final February reading on consumer … Continue reading...

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FX Market Awaits North American Leadership

2026-02-19

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2026-02-19

The North American market took the dollar lower on Tuesday, and there was little follow through selling. Yesterday, the dollar as bid in North America and rather than resist, European more than Asia Pacific operators have extended the greenback’s gains. The somewhat more hawkish FOMC minutes sat the US two-year yield recover to session highs …

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US Dollar is Mostly Firmer, amid Weak Conviction

2026-02-18

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2026-02-18

The US dollar was sold to new session lows against several currency pairs late in the North American afternoon yesterday, but there has been little follow-through today. The greenback is firmer against most of the G10 currencies today in subdued activity. The highlight includes an unexpected dovish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand …

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UK Unemployment Rises and Private Pay Increases Slow to Five-Year Lows, Pulling Sterling Lower

2026-02-17

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2026-02-17

The US dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies. A healthy reception to Japan’s five-year bond auction helped extend the rally in JGBs, and despite the lower yields, the yen’s roughly 0.25% advance puts it atop the G10 performer today. Ahead of what is expected to be a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of …

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Japanese Data Disappoint and Sends Yen Lower, While the Greenback Consolidates more Broadly

2026-02-16

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2026-02-16

In subdued foreign exchange turnover, the dollar enjoys a firmer bias against most G10 currencies amid on broadly consolidative tone. The US markets are closed for President’s Day, while Chinese markets are closed for the week to celebrate the Lunar New Year. Disappointing Japanese data, including Q4 GDP and December industrial output weighed on the …

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The Dollar is Firm Ahead of January CPI

2026-02-13

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2026-02-13

The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies ahead of the US January CPI. The week began with news that Chinese officials were encouraging de-risking from US Treasuries. Helped by stronger than expected January employment data, the greenback pared its losses. Separately, and counter-intuitively, the Japanese yen and Japanese bonds have rallied in the …

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Consolidation Featured after Yesterday’s Big FX Moves

2026-02-12

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2026-02-12

The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation after yesterday’s stronger than expected January jobs data injected volatility into dollar trading. The news stream is light and tomorrow the US reports January CPI. Japan’s markets re-opened after yesterday’s holiday and extended the yen’s recovery marginally and the JGB rally. As JPY152 …

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US Jobs Data Due while the Confrontation with Iran is Approaching a Climax

2026-02-11

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2026-02-11

The US dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies. The powerful short squeeze continues to lift the yen, though Japan was on holiday today. Defying expectations, the yen, and Japanese bonds have rallied since the LDP’s sweeping electoral victory. The combination of a stronger yen and lower yields may look like a classic sell …

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