Tag Archive: Commitment of Traders

Key Chart Points Hold and the Dollar’s Rally Stalls Ahead of the Weekend

2023-05-19

by

2023-05-19

Overview: Hawkish comments from Fed officials and the first decline in continuing unemployment claims below 1.8 mln in two months boosted US rates and the odds of a June rate hike rose to about 37%. This represents a near tripling of the probability in the past week. It has been a trend with the odds rising in 9 of the past 11 sessions. The two-year note yield has risen for the past five sessions coming into today for a cumulative gain of about 35...

Read More »

FX Daily, August 24: Markets Prove Resilient to Start New Week

2020-08-24

by

2020-08-24

New virus outbreaks in Europe and Asia are not adversely impacting the capital markets today. Global equities are firmer. Some reports suggesting the US ban on WeChat may not be as broad as initially signaled helped lift Hong Kong shares, but nearly all the markets in the region traded higher.

Read More »

Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures

2020-08-10

by

2020-08-10

With the media playing up the US dollar's negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case.

Read More »

COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

2020-05-01

by

2020-05-01

Federal Reserve: Liabilities & Capital, 1984-2019
As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Euro Bulls Stir but Hardly Shaken

2018-06-02

by

2018-06-02

Euro has fallen 10.5 cents since mid-February. Net speculative longs in the futures market remain near record. Gross long euros have actually increased over the past month.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Has Position Adjustment Begun in Treasury Futures?

2018-02-28

by

2018-02-28

This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows the net large speculative positioning in the 10-year note futures over the past five years. They began last year with a huge next short position of more than 400k contracts.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Bears Very Short US 10-Year Ahead of CPI

2018-02-16

by

2018-02-16

The US reports January CPI figures tomorrow. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings that pushed yields higher and unhinged the stock market. This Great Graphic comes from Bloomberg and is derived from data issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Read More »

Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts

2017-12-17

by

2017-12-17

Concentration of Traders in the CFTC COTs
Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming. Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets. Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions. Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history. ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts. Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table). "If history is still reliable,...

Read More »

COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

2017-09-15

by

2017-09-15

Crude Oil, Jan 2006 - Jun 2017
Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 29): Speculators Make Minor Position Adjustments, but Like that Aussie

2017-09-04

by

2017-09-04

swiss franc
The net speculative CHF position has fallen from 2K short to 1.8K contracts short (against USD). Speculators did not make any significant adjustment to gross positions, which we define as 10k or more contracts in the currency futures, during the CFTC reporting week ending August 29.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 22): Sterling Bears Press, but Too Much?

2017-08-28

by

2017-08-28

The net speculative CHF position has risen from 1.2K short to 2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators continued to amass a significant short sterling position in the futures market. In the CFTC reporting week ending August 22, speculators added 11.7k contracts to the gross short position, lifting it to 107.4k contracts.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 15): Speculators Add to Sterling and Peso Shorts, While Cutting Euro and Canadian Dollar Longs

2017-08-21

by

2017-08-21

The net speculative CHF position has fallen from -1.4K short to -1.2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators made several significant position adjustment in the CFTC reporting week ending August 15, that included an escalation of aggressive rhetoric by the US and North Korea.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 01): Speculators Press Ahead with Dollar-Bloc Currencies, but Hesitate with Euro and Yen

2017-08-07

by

2017-08-07

The net speculative CHF position has risen from -1.5K short to 1.4K contracts long (against USD). In the CFTC reporting week ending August 1, speculators in the futures market continued to build long exposure in the dollar-bloc currencies. In the three sessions after the reporting period closed, the dollar-bloc currencies have traded heavily.

Read More »

U.S. Treasuries: Not Really Wrong On Bonds

2017-08-06

by

2017-08-06

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US Treasury market, and often differences can be striking. The most prominent example was, of course, October 15, 2014.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 25): Speculators Continue to Pour into Australian and Canadian Dollar Futures

2017-07-31

by

2017-07-31

swiss-franc-july-31
The net speculative CHF position has risen from -3.7K short to -1.5K contracts short (against USD). Speculators were active in the currency futures in the CFTC reporting week ending July 25. In particular, speculative sentiment continues to be drawn to the Canadian and Australian dollars.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 18): Speculators short CHF against USD again

2017-07-24

by

2017-07-24

swiss-franc-july-24
The net speculative CHF position has changed from -0.2K long to 3.7K contracts short (against USD). Since the beginning of May the Canadian dollar has been the strongest of the major currencies. However, until the most recent CFTC reporting week ending July 18, speculators in the futures market were net short.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 11): Speculators Switch to CHF Long against USD

2017-07-17

by

2017-07-17

swiss franc july 17
The net long CHF position has risen from 0.1K short to 0.2K contracts short (against USD). Speculators are long EUR against both USD and CHF. We wonder how long this will be the case, given that we expect Euro zone inflation to fall under 1% from December 2017 onward.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 04): Speculators Still Dollar Negative

2017-07-10

by

2017-07-10

swiss franc july 10
The net short CHF position has fallen from 4.7k short to 0.1k contracts short (against USD). Speculators in the futures market made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending July 4, despite it being a holiday-shortened week.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 27): Speculators Scramble to Cover Short Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso Futures

2017-07-03

by

2017-07-03

swiss franc july 03
The net short CHF position has risen from 3k short to 4.7k contracts short (against USD). Speculators bought back previously sold Canadian dollar and Mexican peso futures positions in dramatic fashion in the CFTC reporting week ending June 27.

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions (as of June 20): Surge in Positioning amid Currency Contract Roll

2017-06-26

by

2017-06-26

swiss franc june 26
The net short CHF position has fallen from 14.5 short to 3K contracts short (against USD). The expiration of the June contracts and the roll into September positions appears to have boosted activity in the currency futures, and may obscure the signaling effect. Of the 16 gross positions we track, speculators add to exposure in all but four positions. There speculators covered gross short Swiss franc, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollar...

Read More »