Tag Archive: China

FX Daily, January 22: Faltering Friday

2021-01-22

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2021-01-22

Fear that social restrictions may have to be broadened and extended is helping spur a wave of profit-taking and de-risking, which has also been encouraged by disappointingly high-frequency data. The equity rally seemed to falter a bit in the US, as the S&P 500 eked out a minor 0.03% gain yesterday.

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FX Daily, January 20: The Dollar Slips to New Lows against Sterling and the Mexican Peso

2021-01-20

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2021-01-20

Global equities are moving higher today. Led by continued strong buying of Hong Kong shares, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new highs. The Hang Seng is up 6% this year and is approaching the 2019 record high. Australia's shares set a new record today. Japan and Taiwan bucked the trend.

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FX Daily, January 19: Even When She Speaks Softly, She’s Yellen

2021-01-19

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2021-01-19

Overview: The animal spirits are on the march today.  Equities are mostly higher, peripheral European bonds are firm, and the dollar is mostly softer. After posting the first back-to-back decline this year, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index bounced back today, led by a 2.7% gain in Hong Kong (20-month high) and a 2.6% rise in South Korea's Kospi. 

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FX Daily, January 18: US is on Holiday, but the Dollar has Legs

2021-01-18

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2021-01-18

Overview: The new week has begun like last week ended.  Equities are a bit heavy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second session, its first back-to-back loss since before Christmas.  China and Hong Kong were the notable exceptions, perhaps helped by stronger than expected GDP. 

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FX Daily, January 15: The Greenback is Finishing the Week with a Firm Tone

2021-01-15

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2021-01-15

The US dollar is firm against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are resilient. For the week, sterling and the yen appear poised to eke out small gains, while the Scandi's are the weakest performers with around a 1% decline.

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FX Daily, January 14: Markets are Subdued Despite Impeachment and Record Chinese Trade Surplus

2021-01-14

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2021-01-14

Overview:  The capital markets are becalmed today. There does not appear to be much reaction to the news that the House of Representatives impeached President Trump an unprecedented second time with greater bipartisan support than previously (10 GOP voted with the Democratic majority). 

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FX Daily, January 13: PBOC Sends Signal as Market Looks Past Impeachment Vote

2021-01-13

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2021-01-13

The US dollar is regaining ground lost in yesterday's setback against the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception. It was toying with the $1.37 area, perhaps helped by the Governor of the Bank of England signal that there still are hurdles to adopting negative interest rates, which the futures market is still discounting for as soon as midyear.

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FX Daily, January 11: Greenback Extends Recovery

2021-01-11

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2021-01-11

Julius Ceasar is said to have "crossed the Rubicon" on January 10, 49 BCE, taking the 13th Legion into Rome, defying orders from the Senate, and precipitating the Roman Civil Wat that marked the end of the republic and the birth of the empire.

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FX Daily, January 08: Can the Dollar Find Traction Even if the Employment Data Disappoint?

2021-01-08

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2021-01-08

The global equity rally picked up this week as it closed in 2019. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained today and is up in nine of the past 10 sessions. It has fallen only in one week since the end of October. South Korea's Kospi led today's advance with a nearly 4% rally on the back of talks that were later played down between Hyundai and Apple. 

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

2021-01-07

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2021-01-07

Overview:  After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week.  The euro's three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. 

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FX Daily, January 6: High Drama Weighs on the Greenback and Lifts Yields

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

Overview:  One of the two Georgia Senate contests remains too close to call, but the market appears to be pricing in a Democrat sweep.  The 10-year yield has punched above 1% but has offered the greenback little support.  Yesterday, the dollar-bloc currencies rose to highs since early Q2 2018 and are extending those gains today. 

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Seizing The Dirt Shirt Title

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

China PMI, 2010-2020
In mid-December 2019, before the world had heard of COVID, China’s Central Economic Work Conference had released a rather startling statement for the world to consume. In the West, everything was said to be on the up. Central banks had responded, forcefully, many claimed, more than enough to deal with that year’s “unexpected” globally synchronized downturn.

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FX Daily, January 04: Rising Equities and Slumping Dollar Greet the New Year

2021-01-04

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2021-01-04

Overview:  The first day of the New Year, but it feels a lot like last year.  The dollar is under pressure, and equities are higher.  Outside of Japan and Malaysia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended last week's 3.6% gain. It has not rallied for seven consecutive sessions.

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The Dollar’s Evolving Outlook

2020-12-23

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2020-12-23

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.  In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year.  It is the largest of the capital markets.  Trends in the currency market can last for years.  

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FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

2020-12-17

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2020-12-17

Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar.  Equity markets are moving higher.  Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February.

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This Global Growth Stuff, China Still Wants A Word

2020-12-16

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2020-12-16

Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality.Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and...

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FX Daily, December 15: The Bulls are Emboldened

2020-12-15

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2020-12-15

The S&P fell for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, the longest losing streak of the quarter, and this seemed to encourage profit-taking in the Asia Pacific region today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped for the second consecutive session, and even confirmation of the Chinese recovery failed to lift the Shanghai Composite. 

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FX Daily, December 14: Brexit Deal Hopes Lift Sterling

2020-12-14

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2020-12-14

The fact that the UK and EU negotiators are still talking is seen as a constructive development and has spurred a sharp bounce in sterling.  It traded below $1.3150 before the weekend and is pushing above $1.3400 in the European morning. 

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FX Daily, December 10: Brexit and US Stimulus are Unresolved as Attention Turns to the ECB

2020-12-10

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2020-12-10

Overview:  US threats to break-up Facebook and the stalled stimulus talks spurred profit-taking in US shares yesterday and is dampening enthusiasm today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third time this week, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed. 

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FX Daily, December 9: Hope Burns Eternal

2020-12-09

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2020-12-09

The market is hopeful today. The Johnson-von der Leyen dinner is seen as evidence that both sides see one more opportunity, and sterling is among the strongest currencies today. Hopes of a $900 bln+ fiscal stimulus package in the US helped stir animal spirits and lift US stocks to record highs yesterday.

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