Tag Archive: China

Hard to Be Sterling

2021-09-29

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2021-09-29

Overview: Energy prices pulled back late yesterday, but it offered little reprieve to the bond market where the 10-year benchmark yields in the US, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland reached new three-month highs.  November WTI traded to almost $76.70 before reversing lower and leaving a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick in its wake. 

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Soaring Energy Prices Lift Yields, Weigh on Equities and the Greenback Pops

2021-09-28

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2021-09-28

Overview: Rising energy prices and yields are helping lift the US dollar and weighing on equities.  November WTI has pushed above $76, while Brent traded above $80, and natural gas is up for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has risen by about 25%. 

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Weekly Market Pulse: Not So Evergrande

2021-09-27

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2021-09-27

US stocks sold off last Monday due to fears over the potential – likely – failure of China Evergrande, a real estate developer that has suddenly discovered the perils of leverage. Well that and the perils of being in an industry not currently favored by Xi Jinping. He has declared that houses are for living in not speculating on and ordered the state controlled banks to lend accordingly.

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Taper, No Tantrum

2021-09-23

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2021-09-23

Overview:  The market's reaction to the FOMC statement was going according to our script, with the dollar backing off on a buy rumor sell the fact type of activity until Powell provided an end date for the tapering (mid-2022) before providing a start date (maybe next month).  This spurred a dollar rally. 

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What to Expect When You are Expecting

2021-09-22

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2021-09-22

Overview: The markets have stabilized since Monday's panic attack but have not made much headway.  China and Taiwan returned from the extended holiday weekend.  Mainland shares were mixed. Shanghai rose by about 0.4%, while Shenzhen fell by around 0.25%.

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Ever Grand

2021-09-21

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2021-09-21

Overview: Coming into yesterday's session, the S&P 500 had fallen in eight of the past ten sessions.  It closed on its lows before the weekend and gapped.  Nearly the stories in the press blamed China and the likely failure of one of its largest property developers, Evergrande. 

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Risk Appetites Didn’t Return from the Weekend

2021-09-20

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2021-09-20

Overview: Investors' mood did not improve over the weekend, and the lack of risk appetites are rippling through the capital markets today.  Equities have tumbled, yields have backed off, and the dollar is well bid.  Hong Kong and Australia led the sell-off in the Asia Pacific region, off 3.3% and 2.1%, respectively. 

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FX Daily, September 15: China Disappoints, but the Yuan Remains Strong

2021-09-15

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2021-09-15

The sixth decline of the S&P 500 in the past seven sessions set a negative tone for equity trading in the Asia Pacific region, and the poor Chinese data did not help matters.  News that China's troubled Evergrande would miss next week's interest payment weighed on sentiment too.

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Is it Really all about US CPI?

2021-09-14

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2021-09-14

Overview:  The markets are in a wait-and-see mode, it appears, ahead of the US CPI figures, as it absorbs bond supply from Europe and monitors the potential restructuring of China's Evergrande.  A new storm may hit US oil and gas in the Gulf before recovering from the past storm and helping to underpin prices.

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How (Not) to Win Friends and Influence People

2021-09-13

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2021-09-13

Overview:  There are two big themes in the capital markets today.  The first is the ongoing push of the Chinese state into what was the private sector.  Today's actions involve breaking Ant's lending arms into separate entities, with the state taking a stake.  This weighed on Chinese shares and Hong Kong, where many are lists. On the other hand, Japanese markets extended their recent gains.

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Don’t Make a Fetish Out of What may be a Minor Change in the Pace of ECB Bond Buying

2021-09-09

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2021-09-09

Overview: Yesterday's retreat in US indices was part of and helped further this bout of profit-taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index ended an eight-day advance yesterday and fell further today. Japanese indices, which had set multiyear highs, fell for the first time in nine sessions. Hong Kong led the regional slide with a 2.3% decline as China's crackdown on the gaming industry continued. 

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What’s Real Behind Commodities

2021-09-08

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2021-09-08

Inflation is sustained monetary debasement – money printing, if you prefer – that wrecks consumer prices. It is the other of the evil monetary diseases, the one which is far more visible therefore visceral to the consumers pounded by spiraling costs of bare living. Yet, it is the lesser evil by comparison to deflation which insidiously destroys the labor market from the inside out.

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FX Daily, August 17: Antipodeans and Sterling Bear Brunt of Greenback’s Gains

2021-08-17

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2021-08-17

Overview:  Concern about the economic impact of the virus and new efforts by China to curb "unfair" competition among online companies has triggered a dramatic response by investors.  A lockdown in New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of Australia signaling it will respond if the economic fallout increases sent the Antipodean currencies sharply lower.

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Markets Look for Direction, Currencies in Narrow Ranges

2021-08-12

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2021-08-12

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued today as investors wrestle with the rising virus, the shifting stance of several central banks, and a more tense geopolitical backdrop.  Equity markets are struggling today. 

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Rising Rates Underpin the Greenback

2021-08-11

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2021-08-11

Overview: The US dollar remains firm ahead of the July CPI release, and even though Chicago Fed Evans demurred from the hawkish talk, the market is getting more comfortable with the idea of a rate hike next year. 

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Gold’s Flash Crash and Limited Follow-Through Greenback Gains

2021-08-09

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2021-08-09

Overview:  A flash crash saw gold drop more than $70 an ounce in early Asia. Silver was dragged lower too.  The precious metals have stabilized at lower levels, but it signals a rough adjustment to a higher interest rate environment as a hawkish BOE and strong US employment data suggest peak monetary stimulus is at hand. 

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls

2021-08-05

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2021-08-05

Overview: US interest rates and the dollar turned higher following comments by the Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida, who appeared to throw his lot with the more hawkish members. The dollar recovered from weakness that had seen it fall to almost JPY108.70, its lowest level since late May, and lifted the euro to $1.19. 

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Greenback Softens amid Stronger Risk Appetites to Start August

2021-08-02

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2021-08-02

Overview: Risk appetites snap back after easing in the waning hours last month. The MSCI Asia Pacific equities jumped back after dropping 1.8% last week for the second week in a row. Japan's Topix and China's CSI 300 rose by more than 2%, and Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia gained more than 1%. 

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FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde

2021-07-22

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2021-07-22

Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan's markets are closed today and tomorrow.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's rally, and with today's ~0.8% gain, it is up on the week.

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FX Daily, July 21: Did Japan Deliver a Fait Accompli to the US?

2021-07-21

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2021-07-21

Overview:  The biggest rally in US equities in four months has helped stabilize global shares today.  In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, China, and Australian markets advanced.  Led by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 1.35% near the middle of the session. 

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