Tag Archive: China
FX Daily, May 28: The Yuan Extends Gains, While Sterling’s First Close above $1.42 in Three Years Goes for Nought
The recovery of the US 10-year yield, so it is flat on the week near 1.61% coupled with month-end demand, is helping the US dollar firm. While the yen is bearing the burden on the week, with a 0.8% loss, the Antipodeans are leading the downside on the day.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 27: Narrow Ranges in FX Prevail Amid Month-End Considerations
Dollar demand linked to the month-end gave the greenback a bit of a reprieve, helped by firmer bond yields. Some momentum players may have been forced out of the euro and yen when the $1.22 and JPY109 levels yielded. However, follow-through dollar buying has been limited, and it has come back a little softer but broadly so.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 26: RBNZ Joins the Queue, while Yuan’s Advance Continues
The decline in US rates and the doves at the ECB pushing back against the need to reduce bond purchases next month have seen European bond yields unwind most of this month's gain. The inability of US shares to hold on to early gains yesterday did not deter the Asia Pacific and European equities from trading higher.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 25: Softer Yields Weigh on the Greenback
The decline in US 10-year rates to two-week lows below 1.59% is helping rebuild bullish enthusiasm for stocks and weighing on the US dollar. The NASDAQ reached two-week highs yesterday, and almost all the large markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though India struggled.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 24: China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured
The US dollar is firmer in the European morning after starting out with a softer bias in Asia Pacific turnover. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Swiss franc are heavy, but ranges are narrow, and consolidation seems to be the flavor of the day.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 19: Now What Does Bitcoin say About the Dollar and the US?
A setback in commodities and technology are roiling equity markets today. The inability of US equities to sustain yesterday's rally provided an initial headwind to trading in the Asia Pacific region today. Hong Kong and South Korea markets were closed for holidays, but most of the bourses fell, led by Australia, where the market tumbled nearly 2%, the most in almost three months as the drop in mining and energy took a toll.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 17: US and Europe may Announce Tariff Truce
There are two general developments as the busy week gets underway. First, despite accelerated price readings in the US (CPI, PPI, import prices, and University of Michigan survey), US rates are soft. The 10-year yield is near 1.61% after rising to 1.70% after the CPI surprise last week.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 14: Softer Yields = Softer Dollar
The surge in consumer prices reported on Wednesday saw rates jump and the dollar push higher. Stronger than expected producer prices yesterday, and news of wage increases (average 10%) at Mcdonalds and for 75,000 people Amazon wants to hire, saw rates ease and the dollar's upside momentum stall.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 13: Long Lost Bond Vigilantes Sighted, Gives Dollar Fillip
It is as if the bond vigilantes were pushed too far. US inflation is accelerating more than expected, and it cannot all be attributed to the base effect, and the Federal Reserve, to many investors, is tone-deaf. With powerful fiscal stimulus, nominal growth above 10%, and the economy re-opening, albeit unevenly, does the monetary accelerator need to be fully engaged?
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 12: The Dollar Stabilizes but Stocks, Not So Much
The markets remain on edge. Asia Pacific and US equities have yet to find stable footing, and inflation fears are elevated. The foreign exchange market has turned quiet as the dollar consolidates its recent losses.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 11: Stocks Slide but Little Demand for Safe Havens
The sell-off in US shares yesterday has triggered sharp global losses today, and there is no flight into fixed income as benchmark yields are higher across the board. Nor is the dollar serving as much as a safe haven. It is mostly softer against the major currencies.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, May 10: The Dollar Remains on the Defensive
Last week's cyberattack on the largest US gasoline pipeline continues to lift oil and gasoline prices. The June gasoline futures gapped higher to extend last week's 2.4% gain but has subsequently moved lower to enter the gap.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, April 26: Big Week Begins Quietly, with the Greenback Still Under Pressure
Overview: What promises to be a notable week has begun off quietly: the US, EMU, and South Korea report Q1 GDP. The eurozone also provides its first estimate of April inflation. Corporate earnings feature tech and financial firms. Equities are mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific region and Europe.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, April 20: Market has Second Thoughts about Timing of First Fed Hike
Overview: Even as US yields edge higher, the dollar struggles. With the 10-year Treasury yields now at 1.62%, nine basis points above last week's lows, the greenback has turned mixed against the major currencies. After briefly slipping below JPY108, the dollar has recovered to around JPY108.55.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, April 12: Capital Markets Look for Direction
Overview: Risk appetites have not returned from the weekend. Equities are heavy, and bond yields softer. The dollar is drifting lower in Europe. China's unusually candid admission of the shortcomings of its vaccine and record new cases in India saw all the equity markets in the region fall. Only South Korea and Taiwan escaped the carnage that saw the Indian market tumble 3.5%.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, April 5: Market Pushes First Rate Hike into 2022
Overview: Many financial centers in Asia and Europe remain closed for the extended holiday. Although several markets that were open were higher in the Asia Pacific region, India was an exception as a record contagion sent stocks down the most in five weeks. US futures are pointing higher, led by the Dow, while the NASDAQ lags.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, March 30: US Yields Push Higher, Lifting the Greenback Especially Against the Euro and Yen
The US 10-year yield is at new highs since January 2020, pressing above 1.77% and helping pull up global yields today. European benchmarks yields are up 4-5 bp, and the Antipodean yields jump 8-9 bp. The impact on equities has been minor, and the talk is still about the unwinding of Archegos Capital.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, March 29: Markets Look for Direction after Large Block Trade and Before Key Data
The large block trade (~$20 bln) before the weekend, apparently from a family office, continued to have ripple effects today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index barely noticed. It extended its pre-weekend rally of 1.3%, and only South Korea and Australia fell among the major markets.
Read More »
Read More »
FX Daily, March 16: Equities Firm, but Markets Tread Gingerly
Overview: Yesterday's new record highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial helped set the tone for today's advance in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a two-day decline, with other major markets rising today.
Read More »
Read More »
Looking Past Gigantic Base Effects To China’s (Really) Struggling Economy
The Chinese were first to go down because they had been first to shut down, therefore one year further on they’ll be the first to skew all their economic results when being compared to it. These obvious base effects will, without further scrutiny, make analysis slightly more difficult.
Read More »
Read More »