Tag Archive: China

FX Weekly Preview: The Macro Backdrop at the Start of the Second Quarter

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year. The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical. The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it may not be several more months.

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Blocher and the People That Ruined the EU

Last weekend, European leaders gathered in Rome for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They discussed, not for the first time, how to get the EU back on track. And they told each other they are still committed to the Union and believe in its future. (We’ve heard that one before, too.)

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TIC Analysis of Selling

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It was supposed to be a big deal, the kind of rebuke reserved for disreputable leaders of...

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Durable Goods After Leap Year

New orders for durable goods (not including transportation orders) were up 1% year-over-year in February. That is less than the (revised) 4.4% growth in January, but as with all comparisons of February 2017 to February 2016 there will be some uncertainty surrounding the comparison to the leap year version.

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SNB Spent $68 Billion On Currency Manipulation In 2016

While Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with China for manipulating its currency, he appears to have recently figured out that over the past 2 years Beijing has been spending hundreds of billions in dollar to strengthen, not weaken, the Yuan and to halt the ~$1 trillion in capital flight from China.

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Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never be interpreted as standalone procedures related solely to some unknown policy stance. That is particularly true given that we know what their stance is and has been – neutral.

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Pressure, Sure, But From Where?

It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official explanation is an obvious whitewash, one so haphazard that I doubt it will ever be referred to again outside of ridicule.

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Digital Gold – For Now Caveat Emptor

Bitcoin surpasses gold price - a psychological and arbitrary headline. Royal Mint blockchain gold asks you to trust in the UK government. Royal Canadian Mint and GoldMoney blockchain product asks you to trust in government and the technology, servers, websites etc of the providers. Invest in a gold mine using cryptocurrency - but wait until 2022 for your gold and trust the miners that it is there. Blockchain and gold will likely make a "good...

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Trump: Unilateralism or Isolationism?

Many who think that the US is becoming isolationist are wrong. The thrust is now more about unilateralism. Unilateralism can lead to the US being more isolated.

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FX Daily, March 16: Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike. News that the populist-nationalist Freedom Party did worse than expected in the Dutch elections also helped underpin the euro, which rose to nearly $1.0750 from a low close to $1.06 yesterday.

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China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.

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China Starts 2017 With Chronic, Not Stable And Surely Not ‘Reflation’

The first major economic data of 2017 from China was highly disappointing to expectations of either stability or hopes for actual acceleration. On all counts for the combined January-February period, the big three statistics missed: Industrial Production was 6.3%, Fixed Asset Investment 8.9%, and Retail Sales just 9.5%.

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Trump Administration Modifying Stance on Way to G20

Confrontation with China has been dialed down. Criticism of the Fed has been walked back. There is less talk about the dollar. Employment data has been embraced.

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Time, The Biggest Risk

If there is still no current or present indication of rising economic fortunes, and there isn’t, then the “reflation” idea turns instead to what might be different this time as compared to the others. In 2013 and 2014, it was QE3 and particularly the intended effects (open ended and faster paced, a bigger commitment by the Fed to purportedly do whatever it took) upon expectations that supposedly set it apart from the failures of QE’s 1 and 2. This...

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Same Country, Different Worlds

To my mind, “reflation” has always proceeded under false pretenses. This goes for more than just the latest version, as we witnessed the same incongruity in each of the prior three. The trend is grounded in mere hope more than rational analysis, largely because I think human nature demands it. We are conditioned to believe especially in the 21st century that the worst kinds of things are either unrealistic or apply to some far off location nowhere...

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US Trade Skews

US trade statistics dramatically improved in January 2017, though questions remain as to interpreting by how much. On the export side, US exports of goods rose 8.7% year-over-year (NSA). While that was the highest growth rate since 2012, there is part symmetry to account for some of it.

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China And Reserves, A Straightforward Process Unnecessarily Made Into A Riddle

The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of the forex timepiece.

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Importance of Hiding Gold Creatively and Securely If Taking Delivery

Why gold retains value? Interesting unknown gold facts. "Prepare your jaws for a sizeable drop!" History, finite, rare and peak gold. "It is beautiful to look at...". 'Heavy metal' - Thud sound of a gold bar (kilo). 'Going for gold' - Olympic gold medals to Chelthenham 'Gold Cup'.

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China Net Imported 1,300t Of Gold In 2016

For 2016 international merchandise trade statistics point out China has net imported roughly 1,300 tonnes of gold, down 17 % from 2015. The importance of measuring gold imports into the Chinese domestic gold market – which are prohibited from being exported – is to come to the best understanding on the division of above ground reserves in and outside the Chinese domestic market.

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FX Daily, February 14: Markets Showing Little Love on Valentines

Corrective pressures are gripping the major capital markets today.The Dollar Index's nine-day advancing streak is being threatened by the position adjustment ahead of Yellen's testimony later today. Despite record high closes in the main US equity markets yesterday, Asia could not follow suit. It tried to initially, and recorded new highs since July 2015, but sellers emerged and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed marginally lower on the lows of the...

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