Tag Archive: Brent Oil

The Six Major Fundamental Factors that Determine Gold and Silver Prices

Gold and silver are the most complicated assets to price. Stocks, currencies, commodities mostly depend on their fundamental data, supply and demand. Gold and silver, however, are priced indirectly.

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CHF Is No Safe-Haven, but a Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth

In our view the Swiss franc is not a pure Safe-Haven, but a "Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth". Global investors want to participate via the purchase of safe Swiss multi-nationals in global growth. This means inflows into Swiss franc denominated assets. Together with the big Swiss trade surplus, this implies a stronger franc. China stands for global economy, its slowing growth has a negative influence on the profits of Swiss multi-nationals...

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U.S. Energy Independence versus the rise of Chinese household and industrial oil demand

(Originally written in 2012) We maintain that our claim that US energy independent by EIA are misleading. On the contrary, import costs for foreign oil will be the same in 2020 as today

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Futures Market and Brent / NYMEX Divergence

The U.S. “Oil Trade Deficit” Narrows

2013-08-06

by George Dorgan

2013-08-06

The United States trade balance has strengthened to a deficit of only -34.2 bln USD in June 2013. This is nearly half the record-high trade deficit of 62 bln. $ in August 2008 and not too far from record-lows of 26 bln. $ in July 2009, when oil was really cheap. In the first six … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices

2013-04-11

by George Dorgan

2013-04-11

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

by George Dorgan

2013-01-26

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Will Chinese Consumption Growth Drive Oil Prices too High for U.S. Energy Independence or Will Shale Production Costs to be Too High?

Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

by George Dorgan

2012-12-20

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012. January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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Gold, CHF, Brent Arbitrage Trading after Negative CS, UBS Interest Rates

2012-12-01

by George Dorgan

2012-12-01

Credit Suisse and UBS will charge negative interests for cash clearing clients above a threshold. Last year such news was worth 250 bps, on December 3 only 28 bips. One remembers August 26, 2011, when UBS only spoke of negative interests and consequently EUR/CHF rose from 1.1420 to 1.1688. At the time FX traders …

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Seasonal Factors on Oil

Evidence from simple tests supports perhaps some belief that crude oil tends to have strong and weak months of the year, Q4 is often the weakest quarter and Q1 and Q2 the best.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

by George Dorgan

2012-11-12

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry December 3, 2012 …

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

by George Dorgan

2012-10-11

As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

by George Dorgan

2012-08-07

updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

by George Dorgan

2012-07-04

updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI: Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI

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