Tag Archive: Bank of Japan

FX Weekly Preview: Yellen at Jackson Hole

2016-08-22

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2016-08-22

Lastly, a brief word about next week. I will not post my usual piece on macro considerations on Sunday. Here, though, is a brief thumbnail sketch of the top five things I will be watching: Yellen at Jackson Hole at the end of next week: To the extent that she shares her assessment of the economy, I would expect to largely echo the broad sentiment expressed by NY Fed President Dudley.

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The Need for Higher Wages: Lots of Thunder, No Rain

2016-08-18

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2016-08-18

Major central banks and many economists are calling for higher wages. However, they are reluctant to offer proposals to strengthen those institutions who's goal is to boost labor's share of national income. The advocates are more interested in boosting prices than in lifting aggregate demand or addressing the disparity of income and wealth.

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Stupid is What Stupid Does – Secular Stagnation Redux

2016-08-17

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2016-08-17

Which country, the United States or Japan, have had the fastest GDP growth rate since the financial crisis? Due to Japan’s bad reputation as a stagnant, debt ridden, central bank dependent, demographic basket case the question appears superfluous. The answer seemed so obvious to us that we haven’t really bothered looking into it until one day we started thinking about the demographic situation in the two countries.

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FX Daily, August 15: Dollar Eases to Start the New Week

2016-08-15

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2016-08-15

The US dollar closed the pre-weekend session well off its lows that were seen in response to the disappointing retail sales report. It has been unable to sustain the upside momentum, and as North American dealers prepare to return to their posts, it is trading lower against most of the major currencies. The notable exceptions are the Scandi-bloc, which are consolidating last week's gains, and sterling, which remains pinned near $1.29.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thoughts on the Significance of Ten Developments

2016-08-14

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2016-08-14

The GDP deflator may be just as important as overall growth for BOJ considerations and the possibility of fresh action next month. Falling UK rates and a weaker pound are desirable from a policy point of view. Dudley's press conference may be more important than FOMC minutes. Two German state elections that will be held next month comes as Merkel's popularity has waned.

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Great Graphic: Bullish Emerging Market Equity Index

2016-08-10

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2016-08-10

Liquidity rather than intrinsic value seems to be driving EM assets. MSCI EM equity index looks constructive technically. The chart pattern suggests scope for around 13% gains from here.

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FX Weekly Preview: Light Economic Calendar Week Allows New Thinking on Macro

2016-08-07

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2016-08-07

Policy outlook is clear: ECB and BOJ review next month, FOMC still looking for opportunity. Inventory cycle making quarterly US GDP forecasting difficult, but it looks like re-acceleration still the more likely scenario than recessions. Why didn't European bank stress tests results have more impact?

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Negative Consumer Financing Rates in Germany, Soon More Negative in Switzerland?

2016-08-07

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2016-08-07

Things are increasingly upside down in the brave new centrally planned world: thanks to negative deposit rates central banks have put an explicit cost on saving, while in various instances, such as taking out a mortgage in Denmark and the Netherlands, the bank actually pays the borrower, thus rewarding living beyond one's means.

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666: The Number Of Rate Cuts Since Lehman

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

BofA's Michael Hartnett points out something amusing, not to mention diabolical: following the rate cuts by the BoE & RBA this week, "global central banks have now cut rates 666 times since Lehman."

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FX Daily, August 04: The BOE Owns Today, but Tomorrow is a Different Story

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

The Swiss Franc appreciated today against the euro. Given that the Bank of England started monetary easing, this slight appreciation is unexpectedly weak - reason was probably intervention. The SNB intervention level should be around 1 billion francs. Numbers revealed in next week's sight deposits.

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FX Daily, August 03: Consolidation Featured

2016-08-03

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2016-08-03

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses. The greenback's upticks have thus far been shallow and unimpressive, except perhaps against the New Zealand dollar, which is off 0.8% ahead of next week's RBNZ meeting. Softer than expected labor cost increase reinforces the conviction that a 25 bp rate cut will be delivered next week.

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Abe’s Fiscal Policy: More of the Same

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Japan's fiscal stimulus if smaller than it appear and is unlikely to boost the economy as much as officials may think. The problem in Japan is not that interest rates are too high or that pubic investment is too weak. The risk is that the yen strengthens further, and we suggest the dollar may fall toward JPY94.60.

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No Big Thoughts, but Several Smaller Observations

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

Notable that as the CRB Index moves lower, MSCI emerging market equities have done well. European banks are retreating after the stress test results. Tokyo elected its first women governor as this seem to be in part a sign of protest against Abe.

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FX Daily, July 29: Kuroda Hesitates, Yen Advances, Focus Turns to Europe and North America

2016-07-29

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2016-07-29

Main events: Far Lower GDP Growth due to higher inflation and bigger trade deficit. Yen and Swissie advance and weaker dollar. Swiss economy remains on track based on the KOF economic barometer.

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Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tomorrow Promises to be Tumultuous

2016-07-28

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2016-07-28

Japan reports on labor, consumption, inflation and industrial output before the BOJ meeting. ECB reports inflation and Q2 GDP and the results of the stress test on banks. US reports first look at Q2 GDP.

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Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500 percent Inflation

2016-07-28

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2016-07-28

After today's uneventful Fed announcement, all eyes turn to the BOJ where many anticipate some form of "helicopter money" is about to be unveiled in Japan by the world's most experimental central bank. However, as Nomura's Richard Koo warns, central banks may get much more than they bargained for, because helicopter money "probably marks the end of the road for believers in the omnipotence of monetary policy who have continued to press for further...

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FX Daily, July 26: Strange Day: Yen Soars , Swissie Falls

2016-07-27

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2016-07-27

The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical.

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FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.

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The Central Planning Virus Mutates

2016-07-20

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2016-07-20

Readers are probably aware of recent events in Japan, the global laboratory for interventionist experiments. The theories of assorted fiscal and monetary cranks have been implemented in spades for more than a quarter of a century in the country, to appropriately catastrophic effect.

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