Tag Archive: balance of payments
Julius Bär’s Acket Talking Nonsense: Too Much Transparency on SNB Sight Deposits?
Julius Baer's Chief Economist Janwillem Acket argues that by publishing weekly sight deposits, the SNB is telling the market too much. George Dorgan responds that this hiding of economic data will need to happen also in trade data, in GDP data and even in the disclosure of Swiss company results. For Adam Button, this contradicts the people's desire of transparency.
Read More »
Read More »
Ex-Post FX Evaluation: Is the Swiss Capital Account Able to Neutralise the Persistent Current Account Surpluses?
(post written originally in March 2013)
We reckon that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will have issues maintaining the EUR/CHF floor in the longer term, because the expected yields on Swiss investments abroad will not be sufficiently higher than the yield on investments in Switzerland. Because of this insufficient risk-reward relationship, outflows in the capital account of the Swiss balance of payments will not cover the persistent Swiss current...
Read More »
Read More »
(1) What Determines FX Rates?
The effects of so-called “currency wars” and other central bank actions are small compared to the long-term impact made by these five catalysts, which include credit cycles, trade balance, differences in economic growth, and more.
Read More »
Read More »
(5) The Balance of Payments Model
The Balance of Payments is the sum of current and capital account. The Balance of Payments model states that a currency appreciate when the Balance of Payments is positive. We give an explanation in around 400 words, that clarifies the relationships.
Read More »
Read More »
(6.1) FX Theory: The relationship between Current Accounts Surpluses and the Carry Trade
The EUR/USD is going on its longest winning streak for a long time. Since May 27, it has improved from 1.2850 to 1.3396 and is approaching 1.34. What are the reasons?
Read More »
Read More »
Balance of Payments Crisis: Did the Fed Cause the Euro Crisis with Excessive Monetary Easing?
The Fed's excessive monetary easing QE2 caused an inflationary period, that created a balance of payments crisis during which the Eurozone members were obliged to introduce excessive austerity measures.
Read More »
Read More »
Swiss Current Account Surplus Rises from 8.5 percent to 13.5 percent of GDP
According to latest IMF data the Swiss current account surplus rose from 49 billion CHF in 2011 to 80 billion in 2012, this is from 8.5% of GDP to 13.5%. Details
Read More »
Read More »
What Ernst Baltensperger Got Wrong: Why SNB FX Losses Might Not Be Recovered By Income on Reserves
Opposed to Ernst Baltensperger, we think that the risk of losses on the SNB balance sheet and of an asset price bubble might be more important than the dangers of upcoming Swiss inflation.
Read More »
Read More »
Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves: Same Concept, Update February 2013
We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.
Read More »
Read More »
Japanese Currency Debasement, Part 1: Current Account and Japanese Bond Bears
In our first part on Japans currency debasement, we look on three aspects, government bond yields, current account balances and potential hyper-inflation which causes yields to rise strongly.
Read More »
Read More »
Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves. They are Both the Same Concept
We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.
Read More »
Read More »
The wonders of the FX universe
Dark matter may more commonly be associated with physics, space exploration and Professor Brian Cox, but, according to Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos, there’s a good chance that it’s becoming a recognisable force in the world of forei...
Read More »
Read More »
FX Theory: The Balance of Payments Model Explained in 400 Words
The balance of payments leads to many confusions because definitions vary. For example, the IMF’s definition is different from the usual or historical definition. Secondly, the relationship between the balance of payments and reserve assets is difficult to grasp, especially in the IMF definition. Thirdly the origin of “errors and omissions” is often unclear. Therefore …
Read More »
Read More »
Because They Knew What They Were Doing: The Parallels between European and SNB Leaders
Similarly as European leaders knew what they were doing with the euro, namely introducing a not feasible currency, Swiss National Bank did between 2005 and 2008, namely the absolutely wrong thing.
Read More »
Read More »
4 Different Solutions for the Euro Crisis: Can it Be the Northern Euro? A Discussion
The discussion about the future of the Euro: Among a Post-Keynesian, a European Etatist, an Austrian economist and an advocate of a Northern Euro on the French website www.atlantico.fr. The French paper is asking: “Sommet européen : créer un euro du Nord est-il le seul moyen de sauver l’Europe de l’austérité ?” Is the creation of …
Read More »
Read More »
IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012
This link on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …
Read More »
Read More »
Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?
Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012
Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »
Read More »
Read More »