Tag Archive: Animal Spirits

666: The Number Of Rate Cuts Since Lehman

BofA's Michael Hartnett points out something amusing, not to mention diabolical: following the rate cuts by the BoE & RBA this week, "global central banks have now cut rates 666 times since Lehman."

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BofA: To Save Markets Central Banks Just Made Inequality And Populism Even Worse

There is a large dose of irony to the post-Brexit market response: while on one hand stocks have soared and as of today the S&P500 has already recouped more than half its post-Brexit losses (the SPX sank 5.7% peak-to-trough since the referendum and has since bounced 3.5%) an even sharper reaction has been observed in bonds.

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Visualizing “The 5000 Year Long Run” In 18 Stunning Charts

In the long run, as someone once said, we are all dead, but in the meantime, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett provides a stunning tour de force of the last 5000 years illustrates long-run trends in the return, volatility, valuation & ownership of financi...

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The Global Monetary System Has Devalued 47 percent Over The Last 10 Years

Authored by Paul Brodsky via Macro-Allocation.com, We have argued the inevitability of Fed-administered hyperinflation, prompted by a global slowdown and its negative impact on the ability to service and repay systemic debt. One of the most political...

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Silver is on Fire

  The Prices of Gold and Silver Drift Apart Another interesting week, in that the price of silver separated from the price of gold. The former went no nowhere, while the latter gained over 4.5%. We get the trading thesis, that if the precious metals ...

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Chinese Dragon: Breathing Credit Fumes

Economic forecasting, no matter how complex the underlying model may be, is essentially about extrapolating historical trends. We showed last week how economic models completely fail to pick up on structural shifts using Japan as an example. On the other hand, if an economy doesn’t really change much, as in the case of Australia over the last thirty years, model “forecast” are generally quite accurate.

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Circulus in probando

In the latest semi-annual Keynesian incantation spewed out by the world’s best pseudo-scientists, we learn that growth has been too slow for too long and that in itself is the cause of slow growth. First, they promote debt-funded consumption because ...

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The History of Financial Cycles



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Balance Sheet Recession becomes mainstream, four years too late



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El-Erian: The New Normal



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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves. They are Both the Same Concept

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

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Helicopter Money against Animal Spirits and our Critique

The newest paper by McCulley and Poszar "Helicopter Money: or how I stopped worrying and love fiscal-monetary cooperation" presents fiscal policy and monetary policy along these two criteria

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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Post Keynesians



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Debt, the Financial Cycle Determinant between 2011 and 2017

Between 2011 and 2017, the reduction of debt , the hunt on the rich and investment into countries with low debt will become the main rational expectation and the determinant of the next financial cycle.

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week of October 1

  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   If the third quarter was about the reduction of tail-risk by official actions, then Q4 will be about the limitations of the policy response. It will pose a challenging investment climate after what turned out to be a favorable performance in Q3. Equities generally did well. The US …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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11) Monetary & Fiscal Policy



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