Found 151 search results for keyword: label/Great Graphic

Great Graphic: Euro Forecast by Global Banks

2015-12-14

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2015-12-14

The dollar-euro is the most actively traded currency pair in the world.  It is often what is meant when people ask where is the dollar trading.   Dollar bullish sentiment prevailed in 2015, but many large banks doubt that it will continue in 2016.  This Great Graphic from the Wall Street Journal shows the euro forecasts … Continue...

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Great Graphic: A Divergence that Gives China a Headache

2015-12-11

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2015-12-11

China was instructed by the IMF that as an operational requirement for joining the SDR that the gap between the onshore and offshore yuan (CNY and CNH respectively) needed to close.  This was important for central banks to hedge.  The opposite is taking place. That is what this Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg depicts. The …

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Great Graphic: Divergence is Still the Euro Driver

2015-12-08

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2015-12-08

This remains one of my favorite Great Graphics that illustrate the divergence theme that I think is the main driver of the euro-dollar exchange rate.  Composed on Bloomberg, it shows two time series.  The first (white line) shows the German two-y...

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Great Graphic: Canadian Growth and Rate Expectations

2015-12-01

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2015-12-01

Canada reported its monthly GDP estimate for September, and at the same time, provided its first estimate of Q3 GDP.   The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows both time series. The monthly GDP is depicted by the yellow line and the quart...

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Great Graphic: Decline of U.S. Participation Rate Explained

2015-11-30

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2015-11-30

The decline in the labor force participation rate helps explain the substantial decline in the US unemployment rate over the past couple of years.  That decline has helped bring the Federal Reserve to the point that a December rate hike is thought to be extremely likely barring a significant disappointment at the end of the …

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Great Graphic: US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany

2015-11-25

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2015-11-25

This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg.  It shows two time series.  The yellow line shows the premium the US pays over Germany for two-year money.  The white line shows the premium the US pays over Japan for two-year money.   The premiums have risen sharply since mid-October and today are at new multi-year highs. … Continue...

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Great Graphic: Canadian Dollar and the Two-Year Rate Differential

2015-11-23

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2015-11-23

The Canadian dollar is more than a petro currency.    It is also subject to the same forces of divergence that have lifted the US dollar more broadly.  Since the beginning of the year, the US two-year yield has risen 26 bp while Canada's two-year yield has fallen almost 39 bp. This Great Graphic, created on …

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Canada: Monetary and Fiscal Updates This Week

2017-10-24

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2017-10-24

Divergence between US and Canada's two-year rates is key for USD-CAD exchange rate. Canada's 2 hikes in Q3 were not part of a sustained tightening sequence. Policy mix considerations also favor the greenback if US policy becomes more stimulative.

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How will Yellen Address Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy?

2017-08-25

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2017-08-25

Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues.

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Euro Flirting with Near-Term Downtrend

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

North American traders began the week by selling dollars. Euro is testing a downtrend off the year's high. DXY is testing its uptrend.

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NAFTA Trade Update

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

The trade tensions between the US and Canada set the Canadian dollar to lows for the year. The dollar's downside momentum against the Mexican peso has eased. The Canadian dollar looks attractive not against the US dollar but against the peso.

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State of Dollar Bull Market

2017-04-22

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2017-04-22

The dollar market is intact, despite the pullback here at the start of 2017. We have seen similar pullbacks in 2016 and 2015. Divergence remains the key driver.

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Euro’s Record Losing Streak Against the Yen

2017-04-15

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2017-04-15

Euro/Yen
The euro has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions against the yen. Interest rates, US and German in particular, seem to be the main driver. Technicals are stretched, but have not signaled a reversal yet.

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Dollar Index: The Chart Everyone is Talking About

2017-02-21

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2017-02-21

Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon.

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What is Good for the Dollar is Bad for Gold

2017-02-14

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2017-02-14

The Dollar Index is powering ahead, moving higher for the eighth consecutive session. Over the past 100 sessions, gold and the Dollar Index move in the opposite direction more than 90% of the time. The technical condition of gold is deteriorating.

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Trade is Trump’s Centerpiece

2017-02-01

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2017-02-01

Trans-Pacific Partnership
Investors are anxiously awaiting more details on the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities. Part of the challenge is that the cabinet represents a wide range of views and it is not clear where the informal power lies, or whose call is it. In terms of economic policy, trade is being given priority. It is seen as the key to the jobs and growth objectives.

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Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?

2017-01-27

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2017-01-27

US 10-year yield and US Dollar
Many are concerned that the dollar and interest rates have become decoupled. We are not convinced. Correlations, not to be eyeballed, are still robust.

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The Difference of an A and BBB for Italy

2017-01-14

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2017-01-14

Italian Bank Stocks
DBRS cut Italy's rating to BBB from A. It will increase the haircut on Italy's sovereign bonds used for collateral by Italian banks. It is not a mortal blow or a significant hit, but is not helpful, except to add pressure on Italy and further reduce its ability to respond to another shock.

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You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

2016-12-21

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2016-12-21

BISBCNR Index
Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis.

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BIS: A Paradigm Shift on Bond Yields?

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then.

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