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Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Danthine: SNB would end franc cap once it raises interest rates

2013-08-11

by George Dorgan

2013-08-11

Jean Pierre Danthine Swiss National Bank SNB

It was obvious already at the latest SNB Monetary Policy Assessment, the SNB is becoming more and more hawkish. At the forefront is its ueber-hawk Jean-Pierre Danthine, the person responsible for the overheating Swiss housing market. He has now announced: SNB would end franc limit once it raises interest rates The Swiss National Bank will …

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Jordan 1999 paper: Why Switzerland should never peg to the Euro

SNB Q2/2013 Composition of Reserves

2013-08-02

by George Dorgan

2013-08-02

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. here the newest data Total Balance Sheet and Liabilities The total balance sheet size decreased from 511 bln. …

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Debt Reduction, the new Financial Cycle, an Important Driver of EUR/CHF

In this analysis we describe why the long-lasting financial cycle of debt reduction is one key driver of the EUR/CHF exchange rate. We claim that EUR/CHF can rise more strongly only when the competitiveness of the European periphery increases. When this happens, then debt will be reduced and both public and private deficit spending will stop.

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A Nationalization of Swiss Foreign Assets? SNB Owns 56% of Swiss Net International Investment Position

Net International Invest Position Switzerland

The SNB currently owns 56% of the Swiss net international investment position (“NIIP”). In the year 2007 this number was only 12%. Is the central bank implicitly nationalizing the Swiss international companies?

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Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

2013-07-30

by George Dorgan

2013-07-30

UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. … Continue reading »

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Why the SNB will not Imitate Hong Kong, but Potentially Singapore

Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years

2013-07-17

by George Dorgan

2013-07-17

The Swiss ZEW investor sentiment has risen to 4.8 by 2.6 points, news that do not influence markets. More interesting is the following: Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years * Majority see no change in euro/franc for next 6 months (Reuters) – The Swiss National Bank will most … Continue reading »

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Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency

SNB Inflation Forecasts of June 2012 and of September 2012

At the end of May, SNB president Jordan admitted that the EUR/CHF floor will not raised (here also cited by Bloomberg): “We cannot arbitrarily manipulate our currency. In an even worse crisis situation this would be disastrous and counterproductive. The floor must be legitimized. The current minimum exchange rate is realistic and has helped the Swiss economy.”

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SNB Monetary Assessment June 2013: Very risk-averse, nearly hawkish tone

2013-06-21

by George Dorgan

2013-06-21

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivered a, for her standards, very hawkish monetary assessment with the focus on the risks in the financial sector. This does not come as a surprise for us. Each time, after the United States has recovered from a crisis – just like now – inflation and risks increased in Switzerland. …

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Thomas Jordan, Präsident des SNB-Direktoriums

2013-06-20

by Thomas Jordan

SNB-Präsident Thomas Jordan über den US-Steuerstreit und die Entwicklung des Frankens.

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Danthine’s Latest Statements Imply that SNB Might Remove Cap in 2014

2013-06-11

by George Dorgan

2013-06-11

SNB Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine is undoubtedly the most hawkish member of the governing board, an opposite personality to the rather interventionist and Keynesian hedge fund manager Philip Hildebrand. Danthine has perfectly understood that times for the SNB might get hard again in 2014. Jean-Pierre Danthine has made some comments recently: – Swiss franc stays …

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SNB to Follow the Bank of Japan? Part1

2013-06-04

by George Dorgan

2013-06-04

ISM Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing May 2013 YoY

Questions to George Dorgan Is there any chance that the SNB or other central banks could follow the BOJ and just depreciate the currency? George Dorgan: What did the BoJ do? Monetary easing and talk down the yen in a mercantilist style. A central bank is able to talk down a currency only if there … Continue reading »

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Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

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CHF as Funding Currency: Where is the Carry Trade, Bob Savage?

Swiss Franc Put/Call Ratio, Futures Volumes, Open Interest etc.

SNB Q1 Results: Bottom-Fishing Cheap Yen, Increases Equity Share with Gains and Margin Debt

2013-04-30

by George Dorgan

2013-04-30

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q1/2013 With the strong results of 11.2 billion francs, the SNB reduced the …

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