Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will Upside Pricing Be Limited?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-12

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(12/12/22) Remember the Big Short Squeeze we predicted way back in September? Negative sentiment and extra off-side positioning by investors was what was needed for the markets, and that has all played out as we thought. However, concern over the level of "overboughteness" in the rally, and proximity of triggering a MACD sell signal, have primed investors for profit-taking and risk reduction. What has been needed in December was sloppy...

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The Fed’s “Controlled Demolition” of the Economy

2022-12-12

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(12/12/22) What will CPI say? comparing the end of November to the end of December; CPI movement. FOMC meeting on Wednesday; emails asking about getting in to 10-Yr Treasuries; you've missed that boat. Looking ahead to CPI and inflation in The 12-days of Christmas = $45,523, up 10-1/2%. household inflation is much higher than CPI. Why is there such a disconnect? Price Inflation/Shrinkflation; why prices may not come down as rapidly (or as much) as...

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The Problem with Private REIT’s

2022-12-08

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(12/8/22) The problem with Private REIT's: Things are great until they aren't; what happens when investment funds "gate" distributions: You can't get your money out. Blackstone investors want their money back, thanks to falling real estate prices & contagion. Blackstone is another domino in a string with FTX and UK pension funds as the Fed pulls liquidity from markets. Could Blackston trigger a Fed pivot? The Greed Cycle: Too much...

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Is It Too Late to Buy Bonds?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-08

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(12/8/22) Getting lots of emails inquiring whether now is a good time to buy bonds, and this is not surprising, given bonds' terrific rally over the past few weeks. Bonds are now more than two standard deviations above their 50-DMA, with an extremely over-bought MACD signal. We believe there is still a little more upside in the Bond ETF, TLT, to about 114. The further the market gets about the 50-DMA, the more difficult it will be for prices to...

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Could Blackstone Trigger a Fed Pivot?

2022-12-08

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(12/8/22) Will the Fed provide clarification of future plans at next week's meeting? There's still downside risk to markets; could Santa Claus skip Broad & Wall this year? Markets need to hold upward trend; Bonds' miserable year...until now. The Double-dog Dare: Evaluating investment opportunities; the problem with private investments is liquidity. Is the risk worth the return? The problem with Private REIT's: Things are great until they...

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Three Ideas to Tackle Financial Ghosts.

2022-12-08

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2022-12-08

Is money distress part of your life? Do the dollars & cents of poor decisions past sneak up on you and rattle around your house like chains? What if I could provide three ideas to tackle 2022’s financial ghosts and put them at rest for good?

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Christmas Shopping Tips & Year-end Planning

2022-12-07

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(12/22/22) The Fed is now turning its attention to Financial Conditions as its campaign of rabid rate hikes continues unabated. Caution is the watch word for investors heading into the end of the year. A review of December Market history; why we've been reducing risk and taking profits; why we navigate the markets, not "time" the markets. Layoffs are coming after Christmas. A review of our market investing strategies going into the New...

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Will Wall St. See Santa this Year? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-07

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(12/7/22) Mutual Fund distributions and end of year repositioning is weighing on markets during the first half of December, as we predicted. Markets are perched right on the 100-DMA, holding support for the time being. Very typical for this time of the year, and this is what generally sets-up for the much-touted "Santa Claus Rally" at the end of the year. Will Santa stop at Broad & Wall this year?? There's no guarantee, but all of the...

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Fed Focus on Financials (12/7/22): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Advisor…

2022-12-07

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Nutty Predictions for 2023

2022-12-06

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(1/2/23) Could the corporate oliogarchs conspire to create a "Manhattan Project" for the development of a new energy source? Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2023. Might the EU Army rise up to force a complete union of Europe? Could one country completely ban all meat production by 2030? Don't laugh as we review the outrageous predictions for 2023 from the minds at Saxobank. 0:00 - Nutty New Year's Predictions Hosted by RIA...

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Will A Hawkish Fed Return Next Week? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-06

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(12/6/22) Markets took a tumble back below the 200-DMA as the Fed's own market whisperer, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, published comments that the Fed may not only hike rates more aggressively, but are nowhere near a pivot or pause in their monetary policy. The potential for more rate hikes in 2023 sent markets lower. The reality is that the Fed is still raising rates and reducing liquidity. The recent rally was predicated on slowing...

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The Problem with The Fed is The Fed

2022-12-06

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(12/6/22) The Fed is hell-bent on continuing the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in 40-years. There is no hint of Fed softening or relenting, reinforced by comments published in the WSj to knock down spending, hiring, and inflation; Christmas shopping progress & supporting small businesses: The Houston gasoline station with Full Service pumps; how Nick Timiraos killed the market. What happens when rates rise, employment falls, and...

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Markets Break Following Fed Speech | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-05

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(12/5/22) Markets broke above the 200-DMA following last week's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which included somewhat dovish language. But markets moderated somewhat on Thursday, touching the 200-DMA and then sold-off. Encouraged by a stronger-than-expected Payrolls Report, markets broke back through the 200-DMA, but rallied again and essentially closed un-changed. All of these gyrations provided a successful test of the 200-DMA. If...

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What a Weak Dollar Means for the Markets

2022-12-05

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(12/5/22) Welcome to the first, full-week of trading for December, and the first test of the 200-DMA; the Fed rate hikes will continue until morale declines: The Fed does not like market rallies. Look for revisions next year in jobs numbers being reported now; watch the Dollar. Mutual fund and Portfolio repositioning is part of the rally in bonds; there is nothing from the Fed of a pending pivot, but markets continue to anticipate such. Will...

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The 43-Flavors of Medicare Advantage

2022-12-02

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(12/9/22) Why does Jerome Powell want you to lose your job? The nuttiness that is Janet Yellen, and those poor, underpaid folks at Goldman. There are 43 different Medicare Advantage offerings this year: How do you choose? Who's better at accepting mortality and making more rational investing decisions: Men or Women? SEG-1: Expecting a Soft Landing SEG-2:Medicare vs Medigap planning for 2023 Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning,...

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Why Does Jerome Powell Want You to Lose Your Job?

2022-12-02

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(12/3/22) Getting in the Christmas Spirit, Market Commentary, and Jobs Report preview & Fed strategy: Why does Jerome Powell want you to lose your job? Putting kids to work (and saving); 2023 RIA preview; positive savings aspects of Secure Act 2.0; Recession vs Stagflation & Tax Planning for 2023; 'tis the season for Rosso's Razzle-dazzle Eggnog; working side-gigs and SEP's; why every retirement account should have a Roth component; it's...

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Is the Fed Worried About Over-tightening? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-01

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(12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to...

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What’s Jerome Powell Afraid of?

2022-12-01

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(12/1/22) Is the Bull Market back? Fed Chairman Powell's somewhat dovish stance on Wednesday rallied markets to an over-3% gain, begging the question: What is Jerome Powell afraid of? Meanwhile, Markets have been consolidating for the past 6-months, and so remain. What markets DIDN'T hear was that rate hikes will continue at a slower pace, but WILL continue. Concerns about over-tightening overshadowed other issues, like the price-wage spiral, and...

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All Eyes on Powell | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-30

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(11/30/22) A bevy of Economic reports could move markets today, but the biggest factor may well be what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has to say this afternoon. Personal Spending and the second estimate of Q3 GDP are released this morning. Powell's speech is the last public commentary before the Fed moves into a two-week blackout period ahead of their December 14 FOMC meeting, at which the next interest rate announcement will be made. Questions hoped...

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All I Want for Christmas is a Gift of Stocks

2022-11-30

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(11/30/22) The US beats Iran in World Soccer, and markets gird up for the last Fed speech of the year by Jerome Powell; that will be the big market mover today, in addition to economic releases of Q3 CPI and Home Sales; We looks at the concept of stock gifting for Christmas, along with the tax implications, qualified charitable donations, and end of year IRA contributions; other end-of-year hurdles include Required Minimum Distributions, and the...

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