Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice
Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies
Investing is about choices. Every investor faces the same challenge: how to grow wealth while controlling risk. Over the years, distinct approaches have proven effective, though none guarantee success. Some strategies require patience. Others demand discipline in timing and execution. A few provide stability and income. There is no right or wrong way to invest, …
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Overnight Funding Costs Signal Liquidity Strain
After years of abundant liquidity, U.S. overnight funding markets are beginning to show signs of strain. Interest rates on overnight repo agreements have climbed steadily this month as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance and the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Usage of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of excess liquidity, …
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Covered Call Strategies Gone Wild
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ … Continue...
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9-9-25 Gold, Jobs & the Fed: Axel Merk’s Market Outlook
From the Fed’s next move to the outlook for gold and gold miners, Axel Merk, CEO of Merk Investments, shares with Lance Roberts his take on today’s biggest market risks: The largest jobs revision ever, the Fed’s lagging response, why active management beats passive distortions, and how investors should think about risk, contrarian views, and the role of gold in their portfolios.
0:18 - Introduction of Alex Merk, CEO Merk Investments
2:01 -...
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9/12/25 Pullback Cancelled? We’re Setting Up For Year-End Rally
A correction in September would've set up a healthier base, but if it doesn’t happen soon, the odds of one fade as corporate buybacks return, funds stay underweight, and the seasonal push kicks in – setting $SPY / $QQQ up for a year-end rally.
In this Short video, I break it all down for you.
📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
#StockMarket #YearEndRally #SPY #QQQ #MarketOutlook
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9-12-25 The Essential Hierarchy of Money Goals
Where should your money go first? Too often, people skip ahead to investing or wealth strategies before laying the right foundation. Richard Rosso and Matt Doyle break down the essential hierarchy of money goals—a clear order of priorities to help you stay on track.
From emergency savings and debt reduction to investing, wealth protection, and legacy planning, this framework shows you exactly how to progress step by step.
By focusing on the right...
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Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data
The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned "Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing." wherein we stated: "Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come …
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Oilfield Servicers Find New Hope in AI Power Demand
Oilfield service companies are fighting an uphill battle after years of weak demand from traditional energy producers. A relentless multi-year decline in U.S. rig counts has resulted in beaten-down oilfield service companies turning to an unlikely new customer base: technology firms racing to power AI data centers. According to the WSJ, companies such as Solaris …
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9/11/25 When Most Sectors Bullish – Major Correction Risk Low
The Risk Range Report (link below) shows that most sectors have turned bullish. With only a few bearish signals left, the chance of a 20–30% correction is low.
In this short video, I show how this tool can help you spot danger before markets turn.
📉 The Risk Range Report: https://simplevisor.com/risk-range-report
📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
#StockMarket #MarketCorrection...
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9/11/25 There Ain’t No Inflation
Markets and the Fed keep talking about inflation, but what’s really happening? Lance Roberts previews the upcoming CPI, PPI reports, and real-world data to explain why the official numbers don’t always match what you're feeling. From wages and rents to energy prices--is inflation is truly under control, or just hiding in plain sight.
Discover how “disinflation” differs from “deflation,” why Wall Street’s narrative matters for stocks, and what it...
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Oracle Puts the AI Infrastructure Trade Back in Action
The AI infrastructure trade stagnated through August, with enthusiasm fading even after NVDA beat earnings and raised guidance. Investors shifted their focus to weakening economic data and looming Fed rate cuts, fueling the narrative that the AI boom had run its course. That changed yesterday, when Oracle reignited the trade with a blockbuster earnings call. …
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9/10/25 This Market Boom Isn’t Backed By The Data
The market’s rally is not supported by underlying economic data. Weak jobs, disinflation, and slowing demand raise real recession risks.
A recession doesn’t necessarily mean a financial crisis or a 50% market crash, but you have to be ready for one.
In this short video, I break down what a recession could actually look like.
📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
#StockMarket #Recession...
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9-9-25 Let’s Talk About A Correction
$SPY / $QQQ remain resilient and supported by strong money flows, underweight positioning, and short covering.
While an ~8% correction is possible due to stretched valuations and the gap from long-term averages, a major downturn looks unlikely this year.
In this short video, Lance Roberts explains what this means for investors.
📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
#MarketCorrection #SPY...
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9/10/25 Are We On the Edge of Recession?
Are we standing at the edge of a recession? Economic data is showing cracks: slowing job growth, weakening consumer spending, and tightening credit conditions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s policies continue to weigh on growth.
In this episode, Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key signals flashing caution, what they could mean for corporate earnings and market performance, and how investors should think about risk management in...
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Main Street Optimism Ticks Higher Despite Hiring Challenges
Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8. That reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101. Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump …
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9/9/25 The Best Way to Buy Bitcoin: Smart Investors Guide
Thinking about buying Bitcoin but not sure of the best approach? You’re not alone. With so many options—crypto exchanges, ETFs, custodians, and even payment apps—the path can feel overwhelming.
In this episode, we break down the smartest ways to buy Bitcoin while considering security, fees, custody, and long-term investing strategy. Should you buy directly on an exchange, use a crypto wallet, or stick to regulated investment vehicles like ETFs?...
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Healthcare Jobs Keep Labor Market Afloat: But For How Long?
The August jobs report clarified what many investors already suspect: the U.S. labor market is stalling. Outside of healthcare and social assistance, private-sector job creation has nearly flatlined this year. So far in 2025, the economy has added an average of 74,000 private-sector jobs per month. Stripping out the ~64,000 monthly additions from healthcare jobs, …
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9/8/25 Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing
NOTE: As of 10:50a CDT YouTube has yet to process this video sufficiently for us to edit or add time codes. We'll revise all of these as soon as YouTube allows.
Lance Roberts explores how the rise of passive index funds and ETFs has reshaped markets, leading to higher correlations across asset classes and eroding the traditional benefits of diversification. Once considered the cornerstone of portfolio risk management, diversification now struggles...
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9-8-25 Don’t Be Fooled By The Market: Jobs Report Signals Trouble
Friday’s jobs report revealed deeper cracks: a multi-month downtrend in employment, quality of hires is deteriorating, etc.
Since employment drives growth & earnings, any $SPY / $QQQ pop may be short-lived – disinflation & slowing growth still point to mounting risk for equities.
In this short video, I explain why Friday’s data could matter more than you'd think.
📺 Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...
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Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing
Diversification has been the backbone of "buy and hold" strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn't actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even further simplification of investing. The message was basic: "Buy a basket of assets, dollar cost …
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