Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice
12-9-25 Bear Case for 2026: Valuations, Mean Reversion & Credit Stress
Markets are dangerously overextended and priced for perfection going into 2026.
In this short video, I explain why elevated valuations, mean reversion, and rising credit stress could make 2026 far riskier than investors expect.
đșFull episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Read More »
Read More »
12-9-25 Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves
Debt can reshape a family, fracture relationships, and derail financial goals â especially when fraud or addiction is involved. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address the importance of protecting your credit and financial future, and share four âgood enoughâ financial moves to simplify money management without sacrificing results...strategies to cut through the noise and help you stay on track with less time, less stress, and fewer decisions....
Read More »
Read More »
Is Japan In A Death Spiral?: A Contrarian Take
A day doesn't seem to go by without a market pundit asserting that Japan is in a monetary and fiscal death spiral. It's easy to come to such a conclusion given: Based on those stats and others, it's easy to see why many think it's only a matter of time before Japan's economic system collapses. … Continue reading »
Read More »
Read More »
12-8-25 Bull Case for 2026: Liquidity, Fed Cuts & Market Support
Despite all the loud, extreme narratives, the market outlook for next year is neither all-bull nor all-bear.
In this short video, I outline the bull case for 2026, where rising liquidity, Fed cuts, and expanding consumer credit tilt the outlook toward a stronger 2026.
đșFull episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Read More »
Read More »
12-8-25 Bullish Case or Bearish Backdrop? The Real Market Setup for 2026
Lance Roberts looks at both sides of the Market Cycleâthe bullish liquidity-driven momentum and the bearish fundamental weaknesses. With support and resistance levels tightening around the S&P 500, and the Fed meeting, economic data, and major earnings directly ahead, investors must prepare for a market that could swing in either direction in 2026.
0:00 - INTRO
0:18 - Markets Set up for Santa Claus Rally
5:30 - Expect Sloppy Trading This Week...
Read More »
Read More »
1 Million Layoffs
U.S. employers have announced over 1 million layoffs this year, the highest annual total since the pandemic-era collapse in 2020. November alone saw more than 71,000 layoffs announced, keeping pressure on sectors from technology to telecoms even as the equity market pushes higher. The post below, courtesy @KobeissiLetter, details some of this year's announcements. …
Read More »
Read More »
The DPI Link To Margin Debt
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income (DPI). Here is Simon's point. "Yet, where history does raise a red flag is if … Continue reading...
Read More »
Read More »
Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop
đ At a Glance đŹ Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? đ© Email: [email protected]đŠ Follow & DM on X: @LanceRobertsđ° Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next weekâs issue! đïž … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
12-5-25 Why Fed Cuts Could Make the Dollar Stronger, Not Weaker
Fed rate cuts arenât inherently bearish for the dollar $DXY. By supporting economic growth and boosting $SPY / $QQQ, they attract foreign capital that strengthens the currency.
In this short video, MIchael Lebowitz and I discuss why easing supports growth, pulls in foreign capital, and ultimately contradicts the constant dollar-debasement narrative.
đșFull episode: -iyGgj0
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...
Read More »
Read More »
Jobs Data From Alternative Sources May Drive Fedâs Next Move
With the federal government shutdown delaying critical economic reports, the official jobs data remains incomplete. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the September jobs report. However, the October report, originally expected earlier this month, remains in limbo, potentially permanently. The reason is due to the shutdown, as the BLS was unable to …
Read More »
Read More »
5x Leverage Is Too Much Says The SEC
Wall Streetâs financial engineers thought they had found yet another way to turn financial markets into casinos. The gimmick this time is with 3x, 4x, and even 5x leveraged ETFs tied to individual stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SEC just ruled against these new proposals, apparently drawing the line at 2x leverage as the rules state. …
Read More »
Read More »
12-4-25 Why Markets Are Nervous About a New Fed Chair
Markets are reacting to the rising odds of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair. His pro-growth, lower-rate stance raises concerns that inflation might not get enough attention.
In this short video, Michael Lebowitz & Lance Roberts discuss why investors worry about inflation being underweighted and why one chairâs vote still doesnât decide Fed policy.
đșFull episode: -iyGgj0
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...
Read More »
Read More »
12-5-25 Roth Conversions, Money Rules & Financial Wellness: What Actually Works?
Richard Rosso breaks down a study that modeled hundreds of thousands of retirement scenarios to determine which Roth conversion strategy performs best over a 10-year period:
âą Staying in a traditional IRA/401(k) and taking RMDs
âą A one-time Roth conversion
âą A gradual, multi-year conversion strategy
RIA Advisorsâ Financial Guardrails are timeless principles for building lasting wealth and protecting your financial future. Rich also shares...
Read More »
Read More »
12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end?
For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus frameworkâone where dissent has been rare and the Chairâs view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down:
0:00 - INTRO
0:19 - ISM Report...
Read More »
Read More »
Natural Gas Prices: Weather, Data Centers And LNG
As we share below, courtesy of FinViz, natural gas prices have risen by over 50% since late October. Moreover, natural gas prices, approaching $5, are at three-year highs. The primary cause of the recent price surge is increased heating demand driven by colder-than-expected winter weather, which is resulting in greater-than-average inventory draws. Per the EIA, …
Read More »
Read More »
Year-End Financial Planning Checklist: 7 Steps to Maximize Your Wealth Before December 31
The end of the year tends to sneak up on people. One minute itâs late summer; the next, youâre staring at a calendar and wondering how to wrap up your financial goals before the deadline hits. A thoughtful approach can make a measurable difference in what you keep, what you owe, and how prepared you …
Read More »
Read More »
12-3-25 Anyone Can Spot a Market Cycle But Few Can Survive It
Identifying market cycles is easy; surviving them is the hard part. Long-term cycle narratives often break investors emotionally.
In this short video, I explain why focusing on shorter, manageable timeframes leads to better decisions and fewer mistakes.
đșFull episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Read More »
Read More »
12-3-25 Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?
What exactly are Trump Accounts, and who qualifies under the new expansion backed by Michael and Susan Dellâs $6.25 billion donation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff break down how the Dell Deal works, which families benefit, and why this initiative could reshape financial planning for millions of children.
If youâre a parent, grandparent, or financial planner, this is essential information about how these accounts may impact a childâs financial...
Read More »
Read More »
Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending
Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fedâs liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! In our articles QE Is … Continue...
Read More »
Read More »
Black Friday Sales Results
Based solely on Black Friday sales data, the holiday shopping season may be decent despite poor consumer sentiment. According to Adobe Analytics, which draws data from over one trillion retail site visits, Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year. Per MasterCard's SpendingPulse, retail sales, including online and in-store …
Read More »
Read More »
























