Category Archive: 9a) Buy and Hold

(10/5/22) A very strong rally on the S&P has added 6.3% over the past couple of days, which places the MAC-D very close to triggering a buy signal. However, this doesn't necessarily preclude a bit of a pullback, which would create an opportunity to add a little more exposure to stocks. One item to note: Market Volatility has been subdued during this entire bear market, but in September showed a strong pickup in activity. The last couple of...

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(10/5/22) With home prices falling at the fastest pace since The Great Depression (and the resulting ramifications for the real estate market and the economy), one wonders whether the Fed is really paying attention. The VIX is moving up as selling pressure increases; watch for "performance chasing" by fund managers and portfolio managers. There is no indication the Fed is near pivoting on its inflation-fighting gambit. Markets are...

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(10/4/22) The extreme over-sold and negative conditions that exist in the market are very similar to what se saw back in June, which resulted in a subsequent 17% rally. Jim Cramer called The Bottom...again and again. All of these elements are creating a squeeze on short plays, and elevation in prices. All we need now is for Cramer to call the bottom. Again. Our take: Be careful. We're set up for a decent rally with a target of 3,800 or 3,900. But...

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(10/4/22) Will companies be able to pass along increased costs to consumers? As the prelude to earnings season begins to rev-up, CEO confidence is down; what will their outlooks reveal? Has the bounce begun? The short squeeze we predicted has arrived; expect rally to 3,800 to 3,900; Q3 GDP could provide some life to markets. While 70% of companies surveyed by KPMG say ESG has improved their earnings, 59% are pausing or reversing their ESG stance....

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(10/3/22) Stocks wrapped up September by selling off to new lows for the year, begging the question: Are markets ready for a rally? Markets are extremely deviated from long term means, which historically tend to be opportunities for reflexive rallies, which equal opportunities to reduce risk. Markets are over-sold from their 200-DMA; we think markets will rally back to the 3,800 or 3,900-level on the S&P, re-testing the down trend on the...

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(10/3/22) Don't let a bear market force you into making bad investing decisions. When will the real risk of recession occur? Any rally back to 4,000 is a good opportunity to "fix" your portfolio. When will the Fed begin to taper rate hikes? Today's special, un-scheduled Fed Governors meeting; dealing with recession fatigue; the real risk will be in 2023; the lagging effect of Fed rate hikes; Why are American's already tired of recession?...

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(9/30/22) Thursday was a rotten-apple day in a tumultuous week for the markets; recapping Hurricane Ian damage. Financial storms for the Dollar & Bond Markets: All gains from the last 10-years have been eliminated. The 60/40 allocation is the most painful ever. Why the Treasury market gets no respect; if you have cash on hand, begin putting together a list of target stocks to buy when the timing is right. Moving from Cali to Texas; when...

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(9/30/22) The Bond Market is in the biggest bear mode in history; Lance and Michael discuss the role of Bonds as investors struggle with loss of ability to manage risk. What is a Bond? What is a Coupon? The difference between equities & bonds is in the return of principal. Why Buy Bonds; how is the rate calculated? What is the real yield? The lower risk in bonds: no loss of principal. The Fed is manufacturing recession. 0:17 - Solutions for...

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