Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Where are the Opportunities in a Market Sell-off? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-25

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DESCRIPTION: (4/25/22) Markets broke support of the consolidation range on Friday, leading to a sharp sell-off. Lower market futures this morning would indicate a re-test of March lows. While frustrating, markets remain over-sold, and we're looking for some kind of impetus for a counter-trend reflexive rally. Overall sentiment is very negative, and positioning by professional traders is also quite light, suggesting overall market psychology is very...

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Why You Should Buy What Everyone Hates

2022-04-25

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(4/25/22) Markets have essentially gone nowhere since the first of the year. Will Netflix' crackdown on password sharing backfire (after promoting the idea early on...)? Disney's Wokeness cost $34-B in earnings; Twitter now considering Musk's bid to buy. Markets have already had it rough--companies below the surface are struggling; Why Markets are under pressure; why monetary policy takes so long to be felt; why you should buy what everyone else is...

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The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly Secure Act 2.0

2022-04-22

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(4/22/22) Jerome Powell's comments on inflation and interest rates are taking on a harsher tone; have we reached "peak inflation?" How inflation is affecting financial planning and stock market performance; planning for future realities instead of past performances; why many are leaving retirement to return to work. Financial distress is here to stay. Food & Bacon, a preview of our next event; Secure Act for Retirement 2.0:...

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Lance’s Best Bets for Investing Today | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-21

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(4/21/22) The Major Cap companies' earnings reports are just part of the overall investing picture. The S&P is setting up to rally to previous highs, but because the Fed is about to start hiking rates, we're expecting continued pressure on equity prices. The NASDAQ is over-sold, like the S&P, but still trading below its 50-DMA. Tech stocks have been under more pressure, lately. A lift to the S&P will also drag the NASDAQ up, as well....

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The Invisible Market Crash

2022-04-21

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(4/21/22) Despite the positive headline news from big market players, there's been a literal market crash below the surface. Markets have essentially made no progress since last Fall, and valuations remain unreasonably high. Quantitative Tightening is The Next Thing. How demographics are affecting housing supply & demand dynamics. The effects & consequences of Quantitative Tightening; how to harness inflation with i-Bonds. Adventures with...

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Here’s What to Look for In Earnings Reports | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-20

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(4/20/22) A 2-million subscriber deficit for Netflix triggered a warning by the streaming service on Tuesday--the first such alarm for Netflix in a while. Interesting to notice how other streaming subscription services will report, as too many providers cannibalize one another's audiences. Stocks, however, are shaking off that bad news, with futures turning around this morning. The post-tax-day market behavior was as expected. Markets are in a good...

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Would You Rather Pay Tax Now or Later (when they’re higher)

2022-04-20

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(4/20/22) The Q1 Earnings Parade continues; the conundrum for Netflix, bundling vs a la carte--it's an issue of too many providers for a paucity of quality content. What's really important this earnings season is what companies will be saying about forward guidance. A 20% correction is not impossible. QE vs QT: Quantitative Easing did not cause inflation--"free" money from the Government did. You wanna avoid paying taxes, or make money?...

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Are markets Setting up to Rally, or More Selling to Come? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-19

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(4/19/22) Markets continue to consolidate along recent set of lows; trading below the 50-DMA, providing some overhead resistance. This, combined with the most negative investor sentiment in 30-years, and the market hasn't really done much since September '21. Over the last few weeks, markets have been on a sell-signal, and declining. Over the new few weeks, markets are likely to work off over-bought conditions, triggering a money flow buy-signal,...

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Is a Bear Market Lurking?

2022-04-19

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(4/19/22) Does an inverted Yield Curve necessarily mean the Recession is over? (No.) The problem in trying to predict onset of a bear market--we don't usually know until 9-months or so later. Bear markets are fast and fierce; bull markets last longer. Negative investor sentiment generally correlates with market bottom. The Fed has not yet begun to taper! Why more people are using Google to diagnose illnesses; Acceptance of Risk is key to planning...

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MEDICARE: Avoiding Pitfalls & Permanent Penalties

2022-04-14

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When should you sign up for Medicare? Understanding the Alphabet Soup of Medicare Part-A, B, & D How the significance of the passage of time can affect your Medicare Premiums What's the best plan for you? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP _________ ➢ Watch The Real Investment Show LIVE every morning on our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow...

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Watch This BEFORE You Set Stop Losses | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-04-14

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(4/14/22) Wednesday's market action provided a good example of how to best implement stop losses in your portfolio. When the market breaks below a moving average, there is sometimes a market bounce, and an improperly placed stop loss would cut you out of that rally. Wait for confirmation that the break of the 50_DMA is legit. Pay attention to sell signals relative to the market's over-sold or over-bought conditions. The retest and failure of the...

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How We’re Dealing with Inflation Squared

2022-04-14

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(4/14/22) How does the math of inflation, deflation, and recession work? What if Elon Musk buys Twitter? CPI & PPI: How American's are coping w highest inflation in 40-years (taking credit card debt); Dealing with the realities of inflation; the drag on the economy & what really causes recession. Corporate earnings reporting: Big Banks; why this time IS a little different--and that's not good. Expectations for .5% Fed rate hike. 1:35 -...

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Will an Over-sold Market lead to a Bounce? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-13

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(4/13/22) Markets are back on a sell-signal, and getting back to an over-sold condition, suggestive of a bounce. Coming on the heels of the hottest inflation print since 1981, markets are working to hold support at the 50-DMA. This pattern is not just confined to the S&P 500; International markets are continuing into a very negative downtrend, Emerging Markets have performed terribly this year,. In fact, International and Emerging Markets have...

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The Tax Man Cometh

2022-04-13

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(4/13/22) Big Banks lead off the next round of Q-1 earnings reports with a confounded perspective of heightened earnings expectations with haltered profit margin forecasts. Are valuation declines a risk for later in the year? Last-minute tax tips and a gentle correction of our host...but wait, there's more corrective action to be heard. How Elon Musk triggered Twitterers. Inflation is causing demand destruction in housing and used cars. The...

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Interest Rates’ Effect on Investor Psychology | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-12

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(4/12/22) The recent surge in interest rates must be viewed in context: This IS one of the largest draw downs in Bond prices--and rate hikes--in quite some time. But rates are only back where they were in 2019--pre-Pandemic shutdown: Houses were selling (there was a "shortage") and consumers were spending. Post-pandemic, home buyers are "being shut out" because of current rates (at the same 2019 levels); what's the difference?...

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Rising Fuel Prices – Did Biden Go Too Far?

2022-04-12

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(4/12/22) The Easter holiday weekend gives you three days to file your 2021 Tax Return, due this year on April 17. Lance Market commentary and CPI Preview. How Joe Biden has run afoul of environmentalists as he contorts to control the rising fuel price fiasco he caused. The Millennial Narcissism epidemic, and how market metrics affect investor psychology; the substitution effect; just because interest rates are, doesn't necessarily mean they'll go...

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Light Trading Ahead of Easter | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-11

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(4/11/22) This will likely be a much-lighter trading week, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and Easter. Markets have been in an orderly decline following the recent rally; markets are holding support right at the 50-DMA. If that level can be sustained, markets will be primed to rally again. However, sell-signals have been triggered from a fairly high level, so more correctional action is also possibility. Markets are continuing in a month-long...

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Why Everyone is Obsessed with Recession

2022-04-11

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Earnings season is about to re-convene: What companies say about forward looking guidance will be key. This is a holiday-shortened trading week with Good Friday. We've been in a major bear market, despite what the main stream media says. What does it mean when everyone is talking about Recession? A discussion of Yield Curve(s) behaviors; how you know we're at the peak of a business cycle. The problem with lagging indicators. King Richard & Will...

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What is a Retirement Plan?

2022-04-09

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(4/8/22) What corporations are saying about inflation & future earnings. Creativity in the Peep-dom: Richard discovers alternatively-flavored marshmallow Peeps; Wal-art's $100k truck drivers. Annuities in retirement; where's the target on target-dated funds (on your back). How to Quell Retirement Fears vs reaching retirement goals; what is the real definition of "retirement plan?" Achieving retirement nirvana vs under-funded plans....

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How Interest Rates Really Respond to the Fed | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-07

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(4/7/22) How do interest rates respond to Fed dynamics? Meeting minutes from the latest FOMC confab reveal a majority of Fed members favor an accelerated tapering of the Fed's balance sheet, and schedule of rate hikes--leading to Wednesday's sell-off. Historically, previous rate hikes and balance sheet lightening resulted in counter-intuitive movement in actual interest rates. Using the 10-year Treasuries as a proxy, it's interesting to note...

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