Category Archive: 7a) Government Bonds

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

My articles My site About me My books
Follow on:LinkedIN Twitter Seeking Alpha CFA Society EconomicBlogs

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Government bond yields by country and maturity

Private, Financial, Government Bond Debt

For us the five major drivers of government bond yields are: Inflation expectations and inflation: The by far most important criterion. High inflation expectations must be compensated via higher bond yields. The main driver behind inflation expectations is the wage development, this is the form of inflation that typically persists. Price inflation follows inflation expectations with a certain lag. Wealth: The higher the wealth of a country, the...

Read More »

History of European Bond Yields

Two additional criteria important for Emerging Markets: High foreign debt, a weak net investment position and a current account deficit increases government bond yields.

Read More »

High German Pay Rises: The End of the German Bunds Bubble

2013-05-30

by George Dorgan

2013-05-30

Yesterday’s German CPI has given a first insights of what is coming these years: German inflation. For years excessive risk averseness put pressure on German yields. Most recently, energy prices helped to push down inflation and on German yields possibly for a last time. But many ignore that the main reason for inflation are rising …

Read More »

9c) Bonds

This page is the top page for several articles on bonds.

Read More »

Are German Bunds finally heading for the big slide ?

2012-09-14

by George Dorgan

2012-09-14

Citibank judges that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not need a peg anymore. The EUR/CHF exchange rate would be now over 1.20 even if exposed to the free market. Yesterday we showed that the upward move in the EUR/CHF is just the behavior of some euphoric Forex traders. In the meantime we see a completely … Continue reading »

Read More »

German Schatz turns negative again

2012-07-18

by George Dorgan

2012-07-18

Government bond yields under 1% July 18th

After the first time End May, the German Schatz turns negative: German June 2014 Schatz Average Yield -0.06% vs 0.10% on June 20 Swiss Eidgenossen 2yrs still at -0.4%

Read More »

Spread Swiss Eidgenossen vs. German Bund to see further gains

2012-06-29

by George Dorgan

2012-06-29

The spread between the Swiss government Eidgenossen bond against the Germany 10yrs. Bund will see further gain in the future, after the Euro summit opened the door for ESM direct financing of banks. Differences between EFSF and ESM explained

Read More »

The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?

2012-06-20

by George Dorgan

2012-06-20

In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.

Read More »