Category Archive: 5.) The United States

SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 3 juin 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 27 mai 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 20 mai 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 6 mai 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 22 avril 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 15 avril 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 1 mars 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 18 janvier 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 11 janvier 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Jeudi 7 janvier 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

Lundi 4 janvier 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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United States: The ISM Conundrum

Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI. Falling below 50, this widely followed economic indicator continues its rapid unwinding.

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Latest Thoughts on the US Economic Outlook

The US economy is starting to show cracks from the ongoing trade war. While we do not want to make too much from one data point, we acknowledge that headwinds are building whilst US recession risks are rising.

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Real Estate Perfectly Sums Up The Rate Cuts

It’s only a confusing when you just accept the booming economy of the unemployment rate. From this perspective, 2018 was, and more so 2019 is, a downright conundrum. By all mainstream accounts, this just shouldn’t be happening.

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US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view somewhat.

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It’s Not Just the News That’s Fake–Everything’s Fake

What do we mean when we say corporate media is fake? We mean it's a carefully crafted con, a set of narratives, cherry-picked data and heavily massaged statistics (the unemployment rate, etc.) designed to instill the reader's confidence in a narrative that serves the interests not of the citizenry but of a select few pillaging the citizenry.

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What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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Our Ruling Elites Have No Idea How Much We Want to See Them All in Prison Jumpsuits

Even the most distracted, fragmented tribe of the peasantry eventually notices that they're not in the top 1%, or the top 0.1%. Let's posit that America will confront a Great Crisis in the next decade. This is the presumption of The Fourth Turning, a 4-generational cycle of 80 years that correlates rather neatly with the Great Crises of the past: 1781 (Revolutionary War, constitutional crisis); 1861 (Civil War) and 1941 (World War II, global war).

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Monthly Macro Monitor: We’re Not There Yet

I first wrote about the current economic slowdown a year ago and Jeff Snider actually started seeing signs of slowdown in the Eurodollar market as early as May 2018. So, the slowdown we’re in now certainly isn’t a surprise here at Alhambra. I think though that we often forget how long these things take to develop.

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Globally Synchronized, After All

For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered.

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