Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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When Risk and Opportunity Become Personal

2021-11-25

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2021-11-25

The opportunity to lower our exposure to risk is always present in some fashion, but embracing this opportunity becomes critical when precarity and change-points rise like restless seas.

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When Everything Is Artifice and PR, Collapse Beckons

2021-11-23

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2021-11-23

The notion that consequence can be as easily managed as PR is the ultimate artifice and the ultimate delusion. The consequences of the drip-drip-drip of moral decay is difficult to discern in day-to-day life. It's easy to dismiss the ubiquity of artifice, PR, spin, corruption, racketeering, fraud, collusion and narrative manipulation (a.k.a. propaganda) as nothing more than human nature, but this dismissal of moral decay is nothing more than...

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The Fed’s Moral Hazard Monster Is About to Lay Waste to “Wealth”

2021-11-22

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2021-11-22

If the Fed set out to destroy the financial system, they're very close to finishing the job. If you set out to destroy markets and the financial system, your most important weapon is moral hazard, the disconnection of risk and consequence. You disconnect risk from consequence by rewarding those making the riskiest bets and bailing out gamblers whose bets went bad.

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Top 1% Gains More Wealth Than the Combined GDPs of Japan, Germany, UK, France, India and Italy, Bottom 50%–You Get Nothing

2021-11-18

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2021-11-18

Given that political power in America is a pay-to-play auction in which the highest bidder wins, how this incomprehensibly lopsided ownership of wealth plays out is an open question.

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Paging Isaac Newton: Time to Buy the Top of This Bubble

2021-11-16

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2021-11-16

Despite Newton's tremendous intelligence and experience, he fell victim to the bubble along with the vast herd of credulous greedy punters. One of the most famous examples of smart people being sucked into a bubble and losing a packet as a result is Isaac Newton's forays in and out of the 1720 South Seas Bubble that is estimated to have sucked in between 80% and 90% of the entire pool of investors in England.

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Look Out Below: Why a Rug-Pull Flash Crash Makes Perfect Sense

2021-11-15

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2021-11-15

It makes perfect financial sense to crash the market and no sense to reward the retail options marks by pushing it higher. An extraordinary opportunity to scoop up mega-millions in profits has arisen, and grabbing all this free money makes perfect financial sense. Now the question is: will those who have the means to grab the dough have the guts to do so?

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The Contrarian Trade of the Decade: The Dollar Refuses to Die

2021-11-14

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2021-11-14

Which is more valuable: Wall Street's debt/asset bubbles or the global empire? You can't have both, so choose wisely. The consensus makes sense: the U.S. dollar is doomed because the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will conjure trillions of new dollars out of thin air to prop up the status quo entitlements, monopolies, cartels and debt/asset bubbles, and since little of this issuance actually increases productivity, all it will accomplish is the...

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Eight Reasons Scarcities Will Increase Rather Than Evaporate

2021-11-09

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2021-11-09

Who knew it would be so easy? All we have to do is collect urine and we'll be flying our electric air taxi tomorrow! While the private-jet crowd is busy selling a future of 1 billion electric vehicles, 1 billion windmills, 1 billion solar arrays, hundreds of thousands of electric aircraft, thousands of new nuclear power plants and trillions more in "wealth" accumulating in their bloated ledgers, reality is intruding on their technocratic...

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One Solution to Soaring Food Prices: Start Your 2022 Garden Now

2021-11-08

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2021-11-08

There is a great deal of joy and satisfaction in gardening; benefits include saving money, eating healthier, sharing the bounty with others and reducing the derealization / derangement of modern life.

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Whistleblowers Torpedo Facebook and Pfizer: Who’s Next?

2021-11-07

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2021-11-07

If America's total dependence on corporate profits and stock market/housing bubbles is just fine because the bubbles just keep inflating, there's nothing left but rot.

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The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

2021-11-06

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2021-11-06

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed.

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What Does Taper Look Like From The Inside? Not At All What You’d Think

2021-11-05

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2021-11-05

Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era are changed on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace.

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Revenge of the Real World

2021-11-04

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2021-11-04

The status quo response would be amusing if the consequences weren't so dire. Rather than stare at empty shelves, you have two options for distraction: you can don a virtual-reality headset and cavort with dolphins in the metaverse, or you can trade various forms of phantom wealth that always go up (happy happy!) because the Fed.

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The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

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Will China Pop the Global Everything Bubble? Yes

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

The line of dominoes that is already toppling extends around the entire global economy and financial system. Plan accordingly. That China faces structural problems is well-recognized.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.

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Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

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2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

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GDP Red Flag

2021-10-31

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2021-10-31

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%.

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Santa’s Revenge: Everyone Front-Running My Rally, You Get Nothing

2021-10-30

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2021-10-30

Santa is generally a jolly fellow, but that doesn't mean he doesn't take pleasure in meting our well-deserved punishment to the greedy.

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