Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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ECB (Data) Independence

2018-09-15

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion.

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Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

2018-09-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-14

We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy.

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Global Asset Allocation Update – September 2018

2018-09-11

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-09-11

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That’s what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won’t affect the US. The most obvious example of that trend is the performance of US stocks versus the rest of the world.

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‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

2018-09-02

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-02

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are.

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Anticipating How Welcome This Second Deluge Will Be

2018-08-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-29

Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one to this tortured tool we know already who will be blamed for it.

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EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 1

2018-08-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 1 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff discuss the lost dollar decade and put into context the global dollar markets. They further dive into the shadow of the great financial crisis and liquidity …

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Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

2018-08-25

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-25

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August

2018-08-23

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-23

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

2018-08-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-18

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

2018-08-17

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-17

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 ’09, Q4 ’11, Q2 & Q3 ’14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different picture (2.8%).

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What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

2018-08-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-10

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists were sure that it was just the...

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Global Asset Allocation Update – (VIDEO)

2018-08-08

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-08

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-08-02

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-02

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-07-27

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-07-27

Note: This will be a short update. We are shifting the timing of some of our reports. The monthly Global Asset Allocation update will now be published in the first week of the month, aiming for the first of each month. I’ll put out a full report next week. The Bi-Weekly Economic Review is shifting to a monthly update, published on the 15th of each month.

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The Top of GDP

2018-07-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-07-26

In 1999, real GDP growth in the United States was 4.69% (Q4 over Q4). In 1998, it was 4.9989%. These were annual not quarterly rates, meaning that for two years straight GDP expanded by better than 4.5%. Individual quarters within those years obviously varied, but at the end of the day the economy was clearly booming.

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Mid-Year Global Update

2018-07-25

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-07-25

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2018-07-20

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-07-20

This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground. There were, as you’ll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the trade wars and the potential fallout. I would also note that at least some of the recent strength in the data is related to the tariffs.

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Mid-Year Global Markets Update

2018-07-19

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-07-19

Volatility returned to markets with a vengeance in the first half of this year. 2018 started off as an extension of last year when volatility was almost wholly absent. Stocks roared out of the starting gate, up almost every day until January 26th. And then – whoosh. What took nearly a month to gain took just 6 trading days to give back and then some.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – (VIDEO)

2018-07-14

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-07-14

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?

2018-07-13

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-07-13

When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true.

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