Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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Special Edition: Markets Under Pressure (VIDEO)

2018-10-15

What does Alhambra Investments think about the 1300 point drop in the Dow Jones Average this week? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has some thoughts.

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A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

2018-10-05

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-10-05

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND ROUT!!!! was re-energized and away went interest rates.

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China’s Industrial Dollar

2018-10-03

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-10-03

In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven.

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Make Your Case, Jay

2018-09-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-28

June 13 sticks out for both eurodollar futures as well as IOER. On the surface, there should be no bearing on the former from the latter. They are technically unrelated; IOER being a current rate applied as an intended money alternative. Eurodollar futures are, as the term implies, about where all those money rates might fall in the future. Still, the eurodollar curve inverted conspicuously starting June 13. That was the day of the prior “rate...

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Eurodollars & Global Deflation Risk W/ Jeff Snider | Expert View | Real Vision™

2018-09-26

by Jeffrey P. Snider

Is the global economy poised to enter another deflationary cycle? Jeff Snider, head of global research and chief investment strategist at Alhambra Partners, believes that we have never enjoyed a true recovery from the global financial crisis – but instead, have merely bounced between cycles of deflation and reflation. In this piece, Snider unpacks the …

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Monthly Macro Monitor – September 2018

2018-09-25

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-09-25

Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun shares his opinions of the economy and market based on the most recent economic reports.

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Downslope CPI

2018-09-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-16

Cushing, OK, delivered what it could for the CPI. The contribution to the inflation rate from oil prices was again substantial in August 2018. The energy component of the index gained 10.3% year-over-year, compared to 11.9% in July. It was the fourth straight month of double digit gains.

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ECB (Data) Independence

2018-09-15

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-15

Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion.

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Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

2018-09-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-14

We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy.

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Global Asset Allocation Update – September 2018

2018-09-11

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-09-11

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That’s what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won’t affect the US. The most obvious example of that trend is the performance of US stocks versus the rest of the world.

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‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

2018-09-02

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-09-02

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are.

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Anticipating How Welcome This Second Deluge Will Be

2018-08-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-29

Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one to this tortured tool we know already who will be blamed for it.

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EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 1

2018-08-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 1 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff discuss the lost dollar decade and put into context the global dollar markets. They further dive into the shadow of the great financial crisis and liquidity …

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Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

2018-08-25

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-25

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August

2018-08-23

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-23

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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What’s Hot Isn’t Retail Sales Growth

2018-08-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-18

Americans are spending more on filling up. A lot more. According the Census Bureau, retail sales at gasoline stations had increased by nearly 20% year-over-year (unadjusted) in both May and June 2018. In the latest figures for July, released today, gasoline station sales were up by more than 21%.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2018

2018-08-17

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-17

The Q2 GDP report (+4.1% from the previous quarter, annualized) was heralded by the administration as a great achievement and certainly putting a 4 handle on quarter to quarter growth has been rare this cycle, if not unheard of (Q4 ’09, Q4 ’11, Q2 & Q3 ’14). But looking at the GDP change year over year shows a little different picture (2.8%).

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What Chinese Trade Shows Us About SHIBOR

2018-08-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-08-10

Why is SHIBOR falling from an economic perspective? Simple again. China’s growth both on its own and as a reflection of actual global growth has stalled. And in a dynamic, non-linear world stalled equals trouble. Going all the way back to early 2017, there’s been no acceleration (and more than a little deceleration). The reflation economy got started in 2016 but it never went anywhere. For most of last year, optimists were sure that it was just the...

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Global Asset Allocation Update – (VIDEO)

2018-08-08

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-08

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-08-02

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-08-02

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

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