Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

Cool Video: Forces Driving the Dollar and Downplaying Claims Sterling is an Emerging Market Currency

From my remote location in Ocean Grove (next to Asbury Park of Bruce Springstein fame), I joined Martin Soong and Sir Jegarajah for a brief interview as the Asia session was about to begin the new week. A three-minute clip of the interview can be found here.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 29: USD is Offered in Quiet Start to the New Week

The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower.  The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%.  China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets re-opened from a two-day holiday at the end of last week. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 26: Investors Wrestle with Notion that More Covid Cases mean More Stimulus

It may be that a new surge in virus cases will elicit more policy support from officials, but the immediate focus may be on the economic disruption. The number of US cases is reaching records, and at least a couple of states are stopping their re-opening efforts. Several other countries, including parts of Australia, Japan, and Germany, are wrestling with the same thing, And some emerging markets, like Brazil and Mexico, have not experienced a lull.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 25: Contagion Growth and Calendar-Effect Saps Investor Enthusiasm

Given the huge run-up in risk assets this quarter, and the technical indicators warning of corrective forces, concerns over the new infections is pushing on an open door. The S&P 500 gapped lower yesterday and fell 2.6%, led by energy and airlines. The NASDAQ snapped an eight-day rally. Follow-through selling in the Asia Pacific region saw most markets fall at least 1%, with Korea and Australia seeing losses in excess of 2%.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 24: Risk Appetites Satiated for the Moment

Overview: The rally in risk assets in North America yesterday is failing to carry over into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Korea and Indonesia led the advances with more than 1% gain. China and Taiwan also gained. Japan and Hong Kong. Europe's Dow Jone's Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's gains (~1.3%) plus some and US stocks are heavy.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 23: Weebles Wobble but they Don’t Fall Down

Overview: After early indecision, investors ramped the demand for risk assets, encouraged perhaps by indications that the Trump Administration going to support at least another trillion-stimulus package. The NASDAQ rallied to new record highs, and the dollar got thumped across the board. However, in early Asia activity, Trump adviser Navarro seemed to have told Fox News that the US-China trade deal was over. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 22: Dollar Begins Week on Back Foot

Overview: Investors begin the new week, perhaps slowed a bit by the weekend developments and the growth of new infections. Equities are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance, though India bucked the regional trend and gained 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recovering from an early dip to four-day lows. US shares are trading higher after the S&P 500 closed below 3100 ahead of the weekend after reaching 3155.

Read More »

Marc Chandler on Economic recovery and Jackie On Chinese ADRs (Chinese)

Mr. Chandler of Bannockburn explains the economic recovery and consumer spending, as well as the Fed's effort to call on Congress to act sooner rather than later. Jackie expresses her own view on Chinese ADR's future on listing in the US.( Chinese)

Read More »

FX Daily, June 17: Correction Phase does not Appear Over

Overview:  Investors have not yet completely shaken off the angst that saw equities slide last week.  All equity markets in the Asia Pacific region, but Japan, edged higher today, including China, India, and South Korea, where political/military tensions are elevated.  Europe followed suit, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm near yesterday's highs. It has entered but not yet filled the gap created by the sharply lower opening on June 11.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 16: Correction Scenario Tested

Overview: Shortly after the US stock market opened sharply lower, the Federal Reserve announced that it's Main Street facility was up and running. US stocks never looked back. After the S&P 500 recouped its full decline, the Fed announced it would begin buying corporate bonds. Up until now, it had been buying representative ETFs. Stocks rallied further on the news before pulling back into the close. The rally in risk assets carried into Asia.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 15: Unwind Continues

Overview: The swing in the pendulum of market sentiment toward fear from greed began last week and has carried over into today's activity.  Global equities are getting mauled.  In the Asia Pacific region, no market was spared as the Nikkei's 3.5% drop, and South Korea's 4.7% fall led the way.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx  600 is recovering from a more than two percent early loss,  as it drops for the fifth time in the past six sessions.

Read More »

Cool Video: A Quick Review of the the FOMC and a Look to Next Week

Sometimes the news drives the price action, but sometimes the price action drives the news.  If the initial rally in US stocks after the FOMC meeting had been sustained and if the dollar had continued to decline, observers would drawing a different conclusion.  

Read More »

FX Daily, June 12: Licking Yesterday’s Wounds Today

Overview:  The nearly three-month rally in risk assets ended with high drama with a stomach-churning almost 6% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday. Follow-through selling was seen in the Asia Pacific region, but most markets recovered from their lows, and although losses were still recorded, the downside momentum seemed broken. The same holds true for Europe. Bourses opened lower but by mid-morning had moved higher (~1.4%) and US shares are trading...

Read More »

Marc Chandler, Chief Strategist at Bannockburn



Read More »

FX Daily, June 11: Are Risk Appetites Satiated, or Simply Taking the Day Off?

Many observers are attributing the sell-off in risk assets today to the Federal Reserve's pessimistic outlook, yet, as we note below, the Fed's median GDP forecast this year is better than many international agency forecasts, including the OECD's that was issued yesterday.  Moreover, some near-term trends were already in place.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 10: Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome

The pullback ins US shares yesterday has not derailed the global advance. Japanese and Chinese markets were mixed, the Hang Seng slipped, and Indonesia was hit with profit-taking, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain. It has fallen once past two and a half weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened higher but is falling for the third consecutive session.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 9: Profit-Taking Gives Turn Around Tuesday Its Name

Overview: The S&P 500 turning higher on the year was the last straw before an arguably overdue bout of profit-taking kicked-in and is the dominant feature today in the capital markets.  It began slowly in the Asia Pacific region. Equities were mixed, and Australia's 2.4% rally and the 1.6% gain in Hong Kong stood out.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off for a second day (~1.3%), and US stocks are trading heavily, warning that the S&P 500 may give...

Read More »

Cool Video: The Liquidity Hypothesis

Jackie Pang from Meigu TV called and wanted to talk about the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. In this nearly 4.5 minute clip that she posted here, she gave me plenty of time to explain what I make of it. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 5: Greenback Remains Soft Ahead of Employment Report, but Reversal Possible

The modest loss in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday did not signal the end of the bull run. All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, with the Hang Seng among the strongest with a 1.6% advance that brought the week's gain to around 7.8%. South Korea's Kospi was not far behind with a weekly gain of 7.5%.  In the past two weeks, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up nearly 10%. 

Read More »