Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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What key levels are in play for the EURUSD ahead of the US jobs report

2023-06-02

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As the market awaits the US jobs report, the EURUSD has positioned itself between key moving averages. On the topside the 100 day moving average and 38.2% retracement of the range since the April high is resistance near 1.0811. On the downside the 200 hour moving average 1.07312 and the 100 hour moving average 1.07151 would need to be broken to increase a bearish bias. The current price trades between the levels at 1.0763. Flip a coin. That is what...

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US Debt Ceiling Drama Ends with a Whimper, Focus on US Jobs and Fed

2023-06-02

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2023-06-02

Overview: Another bizarre US debt-ceiling episode is over. President Biden will sign the bill that was approved by the Senate late yesterday. It is a bit anticlimactic for the market, for which the US jobs data is the key focus now. Outside of the fiscal drama, the Federal Reserve leadership has effectively push against market expectations for a hike later this month. The odds were around 70% earlier this week, and ahead of the jobs report, is...

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Bitcoin buyers are holding more control. What would change that technical view?

2023-06-01

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The price of bitcoin is trading above its 100 day moving average and 38.2% retracement. Buyers are holding to control above those technical levels.

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US dollar making new session lows versus the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.

2023-06-01

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Run to the downside for the greenback. What are the charts telling us? The USD is making new session lows versus the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD and NZD.  The greenback is the weakest of the major currencies now. The JPY was the weakest at the start of the US session. The AUDUSD is the biggest mover with a change of 1.09% on the day. For a technical look at some of the currency pairs running including the EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD, watch the video.

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AUDUSD is testing it’s a 200 hour moving average.

2023-06-01

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A move - and close - above the 200 hour MA would be the first since May 11. The AUDUSD is testing at 200 hour moving average of 0.65467. The high price reached 0.6548, and backed off on the first look. The current price is trading at 0.6537. The price of the AUDUSD is not trade/closed above it's a 200 hour moving average since May 11. A break - and close above - would give buyers more confidence, and tilt the short-term bias in favor of the...

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Buyers in the GBPUSD are making a play away from the 38.2% of the May trading range

2023-06-01

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Above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 1.24493. The buyers in the GBPUSD are making a play to the upside from a technical perspective in trading today. The pair has been able to get above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range at 1.24493. There was a dip after the ADP jobs report that took the price back toward that level but support buyers came in, and or forcing the price to new session highs. The next key target comes...

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The sellers in the USDJPY are making a technical play

2023-06-01

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The price remains below its 100 hour moving average, and is also below its 200 hour moving average. Despite the better ADP data and steady but strong initial jobless claims, the USDJPY is moving lower. Yields are also now in negative territory with the 2-year yield down around 1 basis point and the 10-year down -3.1 basis points. Technically, the USDJPY has been able to stay below its 100-hour moving average at 139.99, and although trading above...

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We are in a new trading month and the EURUSD is trying to bounce despite strong US data

2023-06-01

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ADP and claims not bad today ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. The EURUSD has been trying to rebound on the 1st trading day of the new trading month. Yesterday on the last trading day of the month, the price of the EURUSD moved to a new month low for May before rebounding. That perhaps gave the dip buyers some encouragement today, but the pair still had trouble above its 100 hour moving average. The price has seen moves above the 100 hour moving...

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Dollar Steadies After Fed’s Push Back

2023-06-01

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2023-06-01

Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated to be the next vice-chair, pushed back against it. His views are thought to reflect the Fed's leadership. Philadelphia Fed's Harker, who is a voting member of the FOMC also backed a pause. This is not quite what we expected when we suggested the US interest rate adjustment was complete or nearly...

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USDCAD finds support against the downside moving average target and bounces

2023-05-31

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USDCAD moved lower and tested the 200 hour MA target on the downside. Buyers stalled the fall. The price moved back higher. That move to the upside took the price back to the 100 hour MA where sellers are now leaning. So buyers against the 200 hour MA below. Sellers are leaning against the 100 hour MA. Traders will be looking for the next shove outside that area for the next bias clues.

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USDCHF moves above the midpoint of 2023 range and 100 day MA. BULLISH.

2023-05-31

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The USDCHF is up sharply today extending above a swing area on the daily chart between 0.9081 and 0.91015. The break above that area then targeted a dual technical level on the daily chart defined by the 50% midpoint of the 2023 trading range, and the 100-day moving average. Both of those levels come in at 0.91297. That key level has also been broken increasing the bullish bias on the daily chart. It has also set the level as a close risk level...

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NZDUSD moves to the lowest level since November 2022. What next?

2023-05-31

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NZDUSD price breaks below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 low. The NZDUSD yesterday moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022. That level comes in at 0.60242. The low price yesterday reached 0.6024. Today, the price moved below that 50% level, and it opened the door for further selling. The current prices trading to a new session lower 0.5987. Risk on a daily chart is a move back above the 50% retracement. Stay...

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GBPUSD buyers had their shot. They missed. What next?

2023-05-31

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The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday but could not sustain momentum and get above the 38.2% retracement of the May trading range. The inability to extend above that level was a big failure for the buyers. The sellers are back in control.  The price decline today has taken the pair below the 100-hour moving average, but the price has rebounded.  The 200-hour moving average at 1.23872 is now close risk. If the sellers can keep the lid against that...

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USDJPY trades between hourly moving average levels. Await the next shove.

2023-05-31

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The USDJPY is trading in a fairly narrow up-and-down trading range today. The low to high trading range is 75 pips. The average of the last 22 trading days (around a month of trading), is 117 pips. Technically looking at the hourly chart below, the price low in the late Asian session approached the rising 200-hour moving average at 139.299 and found willing support buyers. The low price reached 139.307. The USDJPY price had not traded below the...

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EURUSD trendline stalls the fall in trading today. What next?

2023-05-31

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The EURUSD fell to the lowest level since March 20 in training today. The low price extended to 1.0658. The declines erased the rebound gains from yesterday. The low price yesterday reach 1.06718 before rebounding to an intraday high of 1.07474. The move higher to the price above the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above), but fell short of the falling 200-hour moving average target (green line in the chart above). In trading...

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Debt Ceiling Progress, Weak Chinese and Japanese Data, and Soft EMU CPI, Sends the Dollar Higher

2023-05-31

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2023-05-31

Overview: The US budget agreement passed a House committee vote by 7-6 and the bill is scheduled to be voted on by the entire House today before the Senate take it up with the idea of passing it Monday. The procedural step plus the weakness of China and Japanese data and soft CPI figures from Europe has lifted the greenback against all the major currencies. The euro and Australian dollar have been sold to new lows, while the dollar holds ever so...

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AUDUSD made a break to the downside last week. What now?

2023-05-30

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Last week, AUDUSD took a downward turn, breaching the boundaries of a pre-established "red box" with a lower range of 0.6564 - 0.6572. This deviation from the swing area appeared to fortify the confidence of sellers, culminating in a further dip to a low of 0.64898 last Thursday. Although a slight correction has been witnessed since then, in today's trading the high of 0.65587 still fell short of revisiting the aforementioned swing area...

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S&P index trades above and below unchanged. Key MA looms below.

2023-05-30

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The S&P index managed to close above its 100-week moving average last week for the first time since August, a feat that, although achieved by a slim margin, hands more control to buyers. In today's trading, the index hit a new peak since the week of August 15, at 4231.10, before retracting into negative territory with a low of 4201.95. Notably, this is still above the current week's 100-week moving average of 4198.84. If the index can maintain...

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USDCAD sellers tried to extend below 50% but finds buyers

2023-05-30

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The USDCAD sellers tried to extend below the 50% of the move down from the March high on the 4-hour chart today, but could not keep the momentum lower. The price has moved back above that level, and the buyers are more in control. Can they stay above the midpoint level at 1.35808?

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GBPUSD breaks (and stays) above 200 hour MA today

2023-05-30

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The GBPUSD is surging to the upside in trading today, and in the process has seen the price extend above its 200-hour moving average at 1.23905. The high price has reached up to 1.2446 so far. That level took the price of the pair, just above a swing area high at 1.24454, but fell just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 10 high at 1.24493. The price has backed off (seller's leaning against the 38.2% retracement) with the...

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