Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Divergence: Norway and Sweden

2016-09-30

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2016-09-30

Twins
Sweden has one of the weakest of the major currencies this year. Norway has one of the strongest of the major currencies this year. The key driver is divergence of monetary policy and that divergence is likely continue into next year.

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FX Daily, September 29: Dollar Quietly Bid, while Market is Skeptical of OPEC Deal

2016-09-29

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2016-09-29

FX performance, September 29 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow. A notable exception today is the yen's weakness. While the majors are mostly off marginally and now more than 0.3%, the yen is 0.75% lower. That puts the greenback at a six-day high (~JPY101.75) at its best.

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Quick Look at Why the September Jobs Data will Likely Be Strong

2016-09-29

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2016-09-29

There are several economic data points that suggest a healthy gain in jobs in September. College educated unemployment is 2.5% with high school graduate unemployment at 5.5%. The jobs report we expect is consistent with a Fed hike in December.

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Great Graphic: Growth in Premiums of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

2016-09-29

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2016-09-29

Cumulative Premium Increases for Covered Workers with Family Coverage
Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements. Rents and medical services. Due to the differences the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets, typically lags behind core CPI.

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FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Mostly Firmer, but Going Nowhere Quickly

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

FX Performance 2016, September 28 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week. It is within well-worn ranges. Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. In terms of monetary policy, both Draghi and Yellen speak today. The former is behind closed doors with a Germany parliamentary committee.

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Great Graphic: Stocks and Bonds

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

US 10-year yield and S&P 500
The relationship between the change in Us 10-year yields and the change in the S&P 500 has broken down. The 60-day correlation is negative for the first time since late Q2 2015. It is only the third such period of inverse correlation since the start of 2015.

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FX Daily, September 27: US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

2016-09-27

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2016-09-27

FX Performance September 27, 2016
Since the monetary assessment meeting, the EUR/CHF is trending downwards. Sight deposits indicate that the SNB is intervening 0.9 bn per week. We emphasized that the preferred intervention corridor is between 1.08 and 1.0850. The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso. The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the...

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FX Daily, September 26: Dollar Mixed while Stocks Slide to Begin Last Week of Q3

2016-09-26

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2016-09-26

FX Performance September 26, 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro, yen and Swiss franc are higher, while the dollar-bloc and sterling are softer. The moving element here is not so much the greenback, which serving more as a fulcrum, but idiosyncratic, country-level developments.

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Great Graphic: Nearly Five-Month Uptrend in the Dollar Index Set to be Tested

2016-09-26

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2016-09-26

US Dollar Index, September 26, 2016
DXY has been holding an uptrend since early May. It looks set to be tested near-term and technical indicators suggest it may not hold. Here are the two scenarios of penetration.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics to Overshadow Economics in the Week Ahead

2016-09-25

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2016-09-25

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left. There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead. The main focus for most investors will be on several political developments. The first US Presidential debate is wild card, in the sense that the outcome is unknown. In recent weeks, the polls have drawn close. In early August, Nate Silverโ€™s fivethirtyeight.com, the gold...

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FX Daily, September 23: It is Friday and the Dollar is Firmer Again

2016-09-23

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2016-09-23

FX Performance September 23, 2016 Dukascopy Movers and Shakers
As Nassim Taleb instructed, we should not be fooled by randomness. If you see six red results in a row at a roulette table, do not conclude the game is rigged. If you flip a coin, and it is tails six consecutive times, the contest is not necessarily rigged.

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FX Daily, September 22: Swiss Franc Strongest Currency Again

2016-09-22

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2016-09-22

Movers and Shakers, September 22,
Once again the Swiss Franc was the strongest. The EUR/CHF depreciated to 1.0875. As said yesterday, the reasons: the Fed and the strong Swiss trade balance.

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FX Daily, September 21: BOJ Can’t Weaken Yen, Fed keeps Rates Unchanged, CHF Stronger

2016-09-21

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2016-09-21

The EUR/CHF accelerated its decline since yesterday's strong Swiss trade balance data. The second reason was certainly the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged. We know that the Swiss Franc has similar "counter-dollar" status as gold.

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FX Daily, September 20: The Swiss Franc Continues To Rise.

2016-09-20

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2016-09-20

Movers and Shakers, September 20
The trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not. The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued. And the franc continues to appreciate.

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FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Begins Important Week on Softer Note

2016-09-19

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2016-09-19

The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings. The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of the weekend, but investors continue to see a low probability of a Fed hike this week.

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Great Graphic: Median U.S. Income per Presidents

2016-09-19

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2016-09-19

How Median Income Changed Under Each President
Median household income was higher in 2015 than in 2008, but still below 1999 peak in real terms. The bottom fifth of households by income have just recouped what was lost. Income growth did best under (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, including for top 5%. Origin of strong dollar policy means it will not be used as a trade weapon and it hasn't since Bentsen.

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FX Weekly Preview: Punctuated Equilibrium and the Forces of Movement

2016-09-18

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2016-09-18

Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.

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FX Weekly Review, September 12 – 16: U.S. Dollar Resilience Despite Hawkish ECB and bad ISM

2016-09-17

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2016-09-17

The dollar was surprisingly strong this week. This despite a more hawkish ECB, bad U.S. economic data in the ISM surveys.

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Speculators continue reducing Euro shorts

2016-09-17

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2016-09-17

Speculators are reducing their net short Euro positions, since Draghi's comments on inflation. Apparently not only against the dollar but also against the Swiss Franc. This also means that the euro zone may be target real money (like purchases of stocks, real estate and bonds) instead of Switzerland.

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Yellow Lights are Flashing

2016-09-16

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2016-09-16

Bonds are not rallying despite poor US data. Greater chance that Trump gets elected than the Fed hikes next week. Berlin may be more important than Bratislava.

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