Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback jumps and settles above 0.9726 as tariffs gets delayed

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

USD/CHF daily chart, August 14
USD/CHF is trading off 2-month lows below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). US equity markets are rising sharply as US tariffs are to be delayed to December 15. The news was perceived as risk-on, sending safe-haven CHF, JPY and gold down.

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FX Daily, August 13: Investors Remain on Edge

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

Overview:  The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation.  Global equities remain under pressure.  Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain. 

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback under pressure below 0.9700 as sellers challenge June lows

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

USD/CHF daily chart, August 13
CHF is up as Wall Street indices start the week in the red. The level to beat for bears are at the 0.9675 and 0.9660 levels.

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FX Daily, August 12: Yen Remains Bid, While Macri’s Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

Overview: China again tried to temper the downside pressure on the yuan, and this appears to be helping the risk-taking attitude. Many centers in Asia were closed today, including Japan and India, though most of the other equity markets advanced modestly, including China, Korea, and Australia. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened firmer but is staddling little changed levels unable to stain any upside momentum.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback stable near 0.9755 as US stocks recover

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

USD/CHF daily chart
The demand for the Swiss franc decreases as Wall Street indices are gaining strength. The level to beat for bulls are at 0.9790 and 0.9815 level.

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Yes, the Dollar is Above CNY7.0, but No, the Sky is Not Falling

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

The world's two great powers are at loggerheads. Chinese nationalism meet your sister, US nationalism. Import substitution strategy of Made in China 2025 meet your cousin Make America Great Again. Paradoxically, or dialectically, the similarities are producing divergent interests that extend well beyond economics and trade policy.

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FX Daily, August 7: Three Asian Central Banks Surprise Investors

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

While investors keep a watchful eye on the dollar fix in China (a little firmer than projected) and tensions with the US, two other developments compete for attention. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the central banks of India and Thailand surprised the market with lower rates. The RBNZ cut by 50 bp, India by 35 bp, and the fact that Thailand cut at all was unexpected.

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FX Daily, August 6: Markets Stabilize with Help of CNY Fix in Muted Turnaround Tuesday

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies is dominating the capital markets.  The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to Asian trading after the US equities and yields plummeted on Monday.  The VIX surged to 25%, doubling in the past week.

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Cool Video: The implication of CNY7.0+

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

President Trump's tweets last week announcing the end of the tariff truce signaled a new phase in the US-Chinese tensions.  China responded as did investors.  I was fortunate to have been invited to the Bloomberg set to discuss the issues of the day.

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Calling China a Currency Manipulator Is a Toothless Move, Says Bannockburn’s Chandler

2019-08-06

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Aug.05 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the U.S. calling China a currency manipulator and China’s possible reaction. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: China Open.”

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Market Expects U.S. Retaliation, Escalation as Yuan Weakens: Chandler

2019-08-05

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Aug.05 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the market implications of China letting the yuan slip to its lowest level in more than a decade. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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FX Daily, August 5: China Strikes Back

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

Overview:  Chinese officials took the US tariff hike quietly last week but struck back today.  The PBOC fixed the dollar higher (CNY6.90), which it has not done, and will halt imports of US agriculture. The dollar shot through CNY7.0 to finish the mainland session a little above CNY7.03 and CNH7.07 for the offshore yuan. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The Dog Days of August are Upon Us

2019-08-05

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2019-08-05

The die is cast. To defend the uneven expansion and ward off disinflationary forces, monetary authorities will provide more accommodation. The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut in more than a decade and stopped unwinding its balance sheet two months earlier than it previously indicated (worth $100 bln of additional buying of Treasuries and Agencies).

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August Monthly

2019-08-04

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2019-08-04

After falling against all the major currencies in June, the US dollar rebounded in July. The Dollar Index finished the month at new two-year highs with the Fed’s suggestion it was engaged in a mid-course correction rather than a sustained easing cycle. The dollar also appeared buoyed by the extent of the dovishness by the ECB and the heightened risks that the UK leaves the EU at the end of October without an agreement.

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Brexit Update

2019-08-03

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2019-08-03

The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stands and some key dates going forward. 

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What’s the trade after Trump’s surprise China tariffs

2019-08-03

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Adam Button from Forexlive.com talks about the outlook for markets after US President Donald Trump shocked markets by announcing a 10% tariff on all untariffed Chinese goods effective Sept 1. Just minutes after the announcement, Button appears on BNNBloomberg to talk about what's next. Aired Aug 1, 2019.

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What’s the trade after Trump’s surprise China tariffs

2019-08-03

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Adam Button from Forexlive.com talks about the outlook for markets after US President Donald Trump shocked markets by announcing a 10% tariff on all untariffed Chinese goods effective Sept 1. Just minutes after the announcement, Button appears on BNNBloomberg to talk about what’s next. Aired Aug 1, 2019.

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