Category Archive: 4) FX Trends
FX Daily, February 5: Markets Extend Recovery, but Look for a Pause
Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher and surged 1.5% yesterday, the most since in six months, helping set the stage for a continued recovery in global equities, and stoked risk appetites more broadly. An experimental antiviral treatment is to begin clinical testing. All of the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced, with Japan, China, and Singapore gaining more than 1%.
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FX Daily, February 4: Relief Rally Fueled by Liquidity not Peak in Coronavirus
Overview: The combination of the rally in US shares yesterday and the continued efforts of China to inject liquidity helped lift sentiment today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slide, and many markets jumped more than 1%. Led by energy and materials, Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is posting broad gains and is up over 1% in late morning turnover.
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February Monthly
The global capital markets were roiled in recent weeks by the new virus that jumped species in China. It is contagious during the incubation periods and appears similar though more aggressive than SARS in 2003-2004. And China is larger and significantly more integrated into the global political economy.
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FX Daily, February 3: Inauspicious Start to the Year of the (Flying) Rat
Overview: The Year of the Rat is off to an inauspicious start as apparently a fly rat (a bat) virus has jumped to humans. China's markets re-opening amid much fanfare, and the Shanghai Composite dropped 7.7%, which is about what the futures in Singapore had anticipated. Several other markets in the region (Japan's Nikkei, Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand) fell by more than 1%.
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FX Daily, January 31: Stocks Finishing on Poor Note, while the Dollar and Bonds Firm
Overview: It was as if the World Health Organization's recognition of that the new coronavirus is an international health emergency was the catalyst that the markets needed. US equities recovered smartly and managed to close higher on the session. However, the coattails were short, and follow-through buying of US shares fizzled.
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FX Daily, January 30: Contagion Impact not Peaked, Weighs on Risk Appetites
Overview: The ongoing concerns about the geometric progression of the new coronavirus continues to swamp other considerations for investors. Risk continues to be unwound, as the World Health Organization meets to decide if this is indeed a global health emergency. Several large equity markets in Asia were hit particularly hard.
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FX Daily, January 29: Escaped from a Crocodile’s Mouth, Entered a Tiger’s Mouth
Overview: This colorful Malay saying captures the spirit of the animal spirits. Narrowly escaping an escalation of a trade war between the world's two largest economies, the outbreak of a deadly virus has spurred moves, especially the sell-off in stocks and rally in bonds, for which many investors seemed ill-prepared. Even though the virus contagion has not peaked, the recovery in US equities yesterday points to a break the fear and anxiety.
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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead and Why the FOMC Meeting may not be the Most Interesting
The week ahead is arguably the most important here at the start of 2020. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meet. The US and the eurozone report initial estimates of Q4 19 GDP. The eurozone also reports its preliminary estimate of January CPI. China returns from the extended Lunar New Year celebration and reports its official PMI. Japan will report December retail sales and industrial production.
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FX Daily, January 24: Coronavirus Hits Asia Hardest, Europe and the US Resilient
Overview: The new coronavirus in China has moved into the vacuum left by the US-China trade agreement and clear indications that the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve are on hold as investors searched for new drivers. The World Health Organization refrained from calling it a public health emergency even though China has dramatically stepped up its efforts to contain the new virus.
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FX Daily, January 23: ECB’s Strategic Review and the Coronavirus Command Investors’ Attention
The spread of the coronavirus and the lockdown in the epicenter in China has again sapped the risk-taking appetite in the capital markets. Asia is bearing the brunt of the adjustment. Tomorrow starts China's week-long Lunar New Year celebration when markets will be closed, which may have also spurred today's drama that aw the Shanghai Composite tumbled 2.75%, bringing the week's loss to 3.2%, the most in five months.
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SNB’s Jordan: Franc exchange rate is important in relation to Swiss monetary conditions
Negative rates are a necessity. Negative rates have side effects, SNB trying to minimise those side effects. Balance of risks is tilted to the downside. SNB conducts independent monetary policy, does not follow the ECB. But needs to take international environment into account.
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FX Daily, January 22: Fragile Stability in Capital Markets even as SARS Comparisons Grow
Overview: The S&P 500 lost less than 0.3% yesterday, even as the first case of the Wuhan Virus was found in the US. The relative subdued US reaction may have helped stabilize the capital markets today. Nearly all the major markets in the Asia Pacific regions rose, including more than a 1% gain in Hong Kong and South Korea. European shares are posting small gains near midday.
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FX Daily, January 21: New Respiratory Illness Saps Risk-Taking Appetites
The spread of a new respiratory illness in China has spurred a wave of profit-taking in equities and risk assets more generally. All of the markets in the Asia Pacific region tumbled, with Hong Kong hit the hardest (-2.8%) after posting a key reversal yesterday. The sell-off continued in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.8% in late morning turnover, led by consumer discretionary, materials, and energy.
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FX Daily, January 20: Stocks Stall while the Dollar Remains Bid
Overview: The new week is off to a quiet start as the US celebrates Martin Luther King's birthday, and investors look for a fresh focus. Hong Kong and Indian markets were suffered modest declines while most of the other large Asia Pacific markets edged higher. European stocks are trading a little lower, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is threatening to end a four-session advance. Most benchmark bond yields around half a basis point in one direction or...
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FX Weekly Preview: Central Bank Meetings Featured
The US dominated the news stream at the start of 2020. The spasm in the US-Iran confrontation has quickly subsided. The much-heralded US-China Phase 1 trade deal has been signed. The US has completed the ratification process of the US Mexico Canada Free-Trade Agreement. The early signs from the economic entrails suggest the world’s largest economy continue to enjoy a record-long, even if not robust, expansion.
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The market is search for a new theme. Here is where to watch
The themes of 2019 were 1) the US-China trade war 2) Brexit 3) Central bank easing. With the signing of the phase one deal and with central banks easing close to the finish line (the BOE, RBA and some EM central banks are still in play), the market suddenly finds itself without a theme.
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The market is search for a new theme. Here is where to watch
The themes of 2019 were 1) the US-China trade war 2) Brexit 3) Central bank easing. With the signing of the phase one deal and with central banks easing close to the finish line (the BOE, RBA and some EM central banks are still in play), the market suddenly finds itself without a theme. LET’S … Continue...
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FX Daily, January 17: China and the UK Surprise in Opposite Directions
Overview: Helped by new record highs in the US, global stocks are moving higher today. Nearly all the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced and the seventh consecutive weekly rally is the longest in a couple of years. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs and appears set to take a four-day streak into next week. US shares are trading firmly.
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FX Daily, January 16: Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed
Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week. US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed.
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FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry
News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push into risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance today, with only Australian equities among the large regional markets able to sustain upticks.
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