Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, May 30: Italian Reprieve, Euro Bounces, Trade Tensions Rise

2018-05-30

by

2018-05-30

After what could be described as a 15-sigma event yesterday in the Italian bond market, a reprieve today has seen the euro recover a cent from yesterday's lows. While the political situation in Italy is worrisome, many observers suspect that the new banking rules exacerbated the illiquidity that explains outsized moves.

Read More »

EURUSD corrects to 100 hour MA and stalls

2018-05-30

by

The EURUSD corrected to the 100 hour MA and stalled. Is that the peak for the correction?

Read More »

What Happened Monday?

2018-05-29

by

2018-05-29

Italian politics dominated Monday's activity. Initially, the euro reacted positively in Asia to news that the Italian President had blocked the proposed finance minister. A technocrat government would be appointed to prepare for new elections.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Political Crises in Europe Rivals Economic Data and Trade to Drive Capital Markets

2018-05-28

by

2018-05-28

The end of the Greek assistance program that allowed them to keep their primarily official creditors whole, and the broad expansion in the eurozone, was supposed to usher in a new period of convergence. Monetary union was once again feted as a success, and some observers were forecasting a substantial increase in the euro as a reserve asset.

Read More »

Trade Like A Pilot and You Will Never Crash

2018-05-25

by

My favorite question to ask new traders is this: What do you do when you make a mistake in trading? The answer to that question tells you everything you need to know whether they’re going to make money. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

2018-05-25

by

2018-05-25

The euro and sterling were sold through yesterday's lows in Asia, but rebounded in Europe, with the help of mildly constructive data in the form of the German IFO and details of UK Q1 GDP. The IFO climate measure matched the April reading and thereby snapped a five-month slide. The expectations component slipped, but the current assessment improved.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 24: Greenback Pushes Lower

2018-05-24

by

2018-05-24

The US dollar is pulling back after recording new highs for the year against the euro and sterling. The greenback is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the Canadian dollar. It is also softer against most of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is the Turkish lira. Yesterday's 300 bp rate hike could only stem the rot momentarily and the lira's 2.3% decline today, wipes out 2/3 of the annual rate increase.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 23: Dollar and Yen Surge, European Data Disappoints

2018-05-23

by

2018-05-23

The US dollar has extended its gains against most of the major currencies. Momentum, positioning, and divergence continue to drive it. The euro briefly traded a little below $1.17, an important technical area and has enjoyed a bounce in late morning turnover in Europe.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk

2018-05-23

by

2018-05-23

The Swiss National Bank's decision in January 2015 to remove the cap on the Swiss franc (floor on the euro) that it has set at CHF1.20 is seared into the memory of a generation of foreign exchange participants. It is not exactly clear where the euro bottomed in the frenzied activity that followed the SNB's surprise move. Bloomberg records the euro's low near CHF0.8520.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 21/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

2018-05-22

by

2018-05-22

USD/CHF, May 15
The USDCHF pair reaches the key support 0.9955 now, and as we mentioned in our last report, breaking this level will confirm completing the double top pattern that appears on the chart, to rally towards our negative targets that begin at 0.9900 and extend to 0.9850. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, unless the price managed to rally upwards to breach 1.0055 level and...

Read More »

Italy Defies Gravity and Risk to Fiscal Rectitude

2018-05-22

by

2018-05-22

Italian asset markets continue to fare better than many expected. The political uncertainty following the March election has been followed by confidence that the Five Star Movement and the (Northern) League will be able to put together a government in the coming days. If so, Italy would have taken half the time Germany did to cobble a government together after inconclusive elections.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Power

2018-05-21

by

2018-05-21

There are several trends in the capital markets at a high-level. The euro and yen's decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks. Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower.

Read More »

Marc Chandler Says Fed Has Little Choice But to Continue to Hike Rates

2018-05-21

by

May.21 — Marc Chandler, senior vice president at Brown Brothers Harriman, discusses currencies, Federal Reserve monetary policy and the outlook for markets. He speaks with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Read More »

FX Daily, May 18: EUR/CHF Continues the Collapse

2018-05-18

by

2018-05-18

The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady. There have been a number of sustained trends in the markets that we have been monitoring. The euro, for example, has fallen each day this week. It recorded its low for the year on Wednesday near $1.1765.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 17: US Rates Edge Higher, while Dollar Turns Mixed

2018-05-17

by

2018-05-17

The Britsh pound was a cent from yesterday's lows on a press report that claimed the UK cabinet had agreed on seeking to stay in the customs union with the EU beyond the two-year transition period. The report suggested that the UK wanted to still negotiate other trade deals, which would seem to be a Trojan Horse.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 16: US Yields Soften After Yesterday’s Surge

2018-05-16

by

2018-05-16

The US dollar is mixed today after the Dollar Index rose to new 2018 highs yesterday.  It is being driven by rising US rates, which also punishes short dollar positions. The US 10-year yield rose seven basis points yesterday to nearly 3.10%.  It is consolidating near 3.06% now.  Many see the yield rising toward 3.20%, which would match the mid-2011 high.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 15: Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback

2018-05-15

by

2018-05-15

US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.  Asian equities fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific shedding 0.8%, the most in nearly a month, snapping a three-day advance. China and India were able to buck the regional move. China's economic data was mostly softer than expected and is consistent with a gradual turn in the cycle as the Lunar New effect fades.

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 14/05/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

2018-05-15

by

2018-05-15

USD/CHF, May 15
The USDCHF pair provided positive trading yesterday to test 1.0000 level and settles around it, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish overview will remain valid, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while breaching 1.0000 followed by 1.0055 levels represent the key to regain the main bullish trend again. Expected trading range for today is between 0.9920 support and 1.0055 resistance.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

2018-05-14

by

2018-05-14

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Fed Can Look Through the Data Easier than the ECB and BOJ

2018-05-14

by

2018-05-14

Geopolitical issues will continue to bubble below the surface for the capital markets. The fallout from the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran has apparently helped lift oil prices in the face of the rising dollar, which often acts as a drag. In the coming days, the US will take the symbolic step of moving its embassy to Jerusalem.

Read More »