Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, March 1: Animal Spirits Roar Like a Lion to Start the New Month

2021-03-01

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2021-03-01

Overview:  Equities and bonds jump back.  Most Asia Pacific markets advanced 1.5-2.5% after the regional MSCI benchmark dropped 3.65% before the weekend and 5.3% last week.  The recovery in European stocks was even more impressive. 

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FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support

2021-02-26

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2021-02-26

A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage exposure (convexity hedging), also play a role.

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FX Daily, February 24: Equities Try to Stabilize and Low Short-Term Rates Help Keep the Dollar on the Defensive

2021-02-24

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2021-02-24

Overview:  The sharp recovery in US shares yesterday that saw the S&P 500 snap a five-day slide failed to carry into Asia Pacific trading earlier today.  All the markets fell save India and Singapore.  Losses were led by a 3% drop in Hong Kong as the first increase in the stamp duty (financial transaction tax) since 1993 was announced (0.13% from 0.10%). 

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FX Daily, February 23: Dramatic Market Adjustment Continues

2021-02-23

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2021-02-23

Overview:  Rising rates continue to spur a rotation and retreat in stocks.  Yesterday the NASDAQ sold-off by nearly 2.5% while the Dow Industrials eked out a minor gain.  Equities are mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region while Japanese markets were on holiday. 

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FX Daily, February 22: Stocks Wilt under Pressure from Rising Yields

2021-02-22

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2021-02-22

Higher interest rates, driven by inflation expectations, is forcing an adjustment to equity markets.  The S&P 500 is poised to gap lower today following slides in the Asia Pacific region and Europe. Japanese and Taiwanese indices advanced by steep losses were seen in China, Hong Kong, and India.

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FX Daily, February 19: Equities Stabilizing While the Greenback Remains Under Pressure

2021-02-19

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2021-02-19

Overview: The bond and equity markets are trying to stabilize ahead of the weekend.  The dollar remains under pressure.  In the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong, China, and South Korean markets advanced, but most markets could not overcome the profit-taking pressures.

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FX Daily, February 18: Markets Chill

2021-02-18

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2021-02-18

The bout of profit-taking in equities continued today, and most markets in Asia Pacific and Europe are lower. China's markets re-opened but struggled to sustain early gains. However, the Shanghai Composite rose by about 0.5%, and a smaller increase was recorded in Taiwan and an even smaller gain in Australia.

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FX Daily, February 17: Follow-Through Dollar Buying after Yesterday’s Reversal Tests the Bears

2021-02-17

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2021-02-17

Overview:  After reversing higher yesterday, the US dollar sees follow-through gains today, leaving the euro around a cent lower from yesterday's highs. Sterling's surge is also being tempered. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well. 

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FX Daily, February 16: Greenback Remains Heavy

2021-02-16

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2021-02-16

The equity rally appears undeterred by the rise in interest rates or the surge in oil prices.  Led by Tokyo and Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities advanced.  China, Taiwan, and Vietnam markets remain closed. After gapping higher yesterday and extended the gains in early turnover today, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating.

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FX Daily, February 15: Sterling Continues to Run Higher and US Winter Storm Gives Oil Another Boost

2021-02-15

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2021-02-15

US and Greater Chinese markets are closed today, but the markets are moving. Equities are bid. The Nikkei led the Asia Pacific region with a 2% gain and pushed above 30000 for the first time since 1990.

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FX Daily, February 12: Animal Spirits Start the Weekend Early

2021-02-12

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2021-02-12

Profit-taking weighs on equity markets, and the dollar is trading higher ahead of the weekend. Most Asia Pacific markets are still closed for the holiday, but Victoria's snap lockdown dragged Australian shares lower.

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FX Daily, February 11: Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX

2021-02-11

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2021-02-11

Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unable to sustain the gap higher opening to new record levels and reversed lower and fell to new three-lows. The settlements were just inside Tuesday ranges, though the Dow Industrials set a record close. Yet, there was spillover to equity trading in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today.

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FX Daily, February 10: China’s Expansion Does not Prevent Deflation

2021-02-10

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2021-02-10

Despite a soft close in US indices yesterday, global shares are on the march again today.  Led by China and Hong Kong, most large markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced today.  Officials gave approval for a new game from Tencent, which helped lift the Hang Seng.

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FX Daily, February 9: Players are Not Buying Everything Today

2021-02-09

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2021-02-09

The rally of US benchmarks to new record highs helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today, but the bulls are pausing in Europe, and there has been little follow-through buying of US shares.  Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia did not participate in today's regional advance led by a 2% rally in China's main indices.

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FX Daily, February 8: Limited Follow-Through Dollar Selling to Start the Week

2021-02-08

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2021-02-08

Overview: The US dollar has drifted higher against the major currencies and most of the freely accessible emerging market currencies, paring the losses seen before the weekend in response to the disappointing employment report. Easing pressure from the pandemic as the surge in cases after the holidays may also be encouraging risk-taking to extend the global equity rally.

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FX Daily, February 05: Position Squaring Weighs on the Dollar Ahead of the Jobs Report

2021-02-05

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2021-02-05

Overview:  While equities continue to march higher, the dollar is softer amid position squaring ahead of the US jobs data.  Gold has stabilized after yesterday's shellacking.  Estimates for US nonfarm payrolls appear to have been creeping higher, encouraged by the ADP, PMI, and weekly initial jobless claims.

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FX Daily, February 4: Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too

2021-02-04

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2021-02-04

Overview:  The euro has been sold through $1.20 for the first time since December 1 and has now given back roughly half of the gains scored from the US election (~$1.16) to the early January high (~$.1.2350).  More broadly, the greenback is bid against most of the major currencies, with the Australian dollar more resilient after reported record iron ore exports and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. 

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FX Daily, February 3: The Greenback Remains Resilient as the Bulls Drive Equities Higher

2021-02-03

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2021-02-03

Equities have charged higher, and the greenback is mostly firmer.  News that Draghi may become Italy's next Prime Minister has boosted Italian bonds.  The PBOC unexpectedly drained liquidity, and this may have deterred buying of Chinese stocks, a notable exception in the regional rally.

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FX Daily, February 1: Markets Snap Back

2021-02-01

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2021-02-01

Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.

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FX Daily, January 29: Please Stay Seated, the Ride is not Over

2021-01-29

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2021-01-29

Powerful corrective forces continue to grip the market. After a large rally to start the New Year, the correction is punishing. Most Asia Pacific equities markets were off again today to bring the week's loss to 2.5% to 5.5% throughout the region. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is a little more than 1% lower on the day. 

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