Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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The Fed and GDP: Week Ahead

2022-07-23

by Marc Chandler

2022-07-23

The outcome of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting on July 27 is the most important event in the last week of July. After a brief flirtation with a 100 bp hike after the June CPI accelerated, the market has settled back to a 75 bp move. The Fed funds futures are pricing about a 10% chance of a 100 bp hike. The market anticipates that after the second 75 bp hike, the Fed will most likely return to a 50 bp hike in September. Fed...

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Dismal EMU Flash PMI on Heels of First ECB Rate Hike since 2011

2022-07-22

by Marc Chandler

2022-07-22

Overview: The euro is over a cent lower from yesterday’s peak, pressured by the drop in the flash PMI composite below 50 for the first time since early last year. More generally, the flash PMIs have shown the global economic momentum is waning, and the bond markets have responded accordingly. The US 10-year yield is flirting with 2.80%, its lowest level in more than two weeks. European yields are 15-20 bp lower and the spread between Italian and...

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Italian Politics Complicate the ECB’s Task

2022-07-21

by Marc Chandler

2022-07-21

The appetite for risk seen earlier this week is fading. Yesterday’s US equity gains helped lift most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region, but China’s CSI 300 fell 1.1%, giving back most of this week’s gains as credit issues from the property sector haunt sentiment.

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Calm before the Storm?

2022-07-20

by Marc Chandler

2022-07-20

The biggest rally in the S&P 500 in three weeks helped lift global equities today. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose for the third consecutive session, the longest streak this month. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up for a fourth day and is at its best level since mid-June.

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The Dollar is on its Back Foot

2022-07-19

by Marc Chandler

2022-07-19

The dollar’s downside correction continues today, helped by hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and unnamed sources who have played up the chances of a 50 bp hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

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