Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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The morning technical report for August 18, 2022ForexLive Video

2022-08-18

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The US data was a better than expectations with initial jobless claims coming down to 250K for the current week and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index shoing a positive 6.2 vs -5.0 estimate. That data is in stark contrast to the Empire data released on Tuesday (-31.3). The USD has seen mostly up and down action.  The EURUSD, GBPUSD moved up to test falling 100 hour MAs and moved back down keeping the bias more to the downside. The USDJPY...

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Nasdaq technical analysis, watch this next price magnet

2022-08-18

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Watch the full Nasdaq technical analysis at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/nq-technical-analysis-must-see-key-levels/

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AUGUST 17: AUDUSD sharply lower but tests support target areaForexLive Video

2022-08-17

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The AUD is the weakest of the major currencies today with the AUDUSD leading the way. However, the fall to the downside has approached a lower swing area and the 50% retracement of the move up from the July swing low to the August swing high.  Buyers are leaning against the area and taking some profits against support is helping to stall the fall.

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The USD moves a bit higher after the US retails sales. What technical levels are in play?

2022-08-17

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The headline retail sales data was a little weaker than expected but the other components showed stronger underlying sales. That moved the USD a bit higher. In the morning video report I take a look at the 3 major pairs: USDJPY EURUSD GBPUSD and outline the key technical levels in play, the bias and the targets and explain why they are important.   Please give a thumbs up or thumbs down. Your feedback is also appreciated.  Good fortune with...

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Markets Look for Direction

2022-08-17

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2022-08-17

Overview: The biggest development today in the capital markets is the jump in benchmark interest rates.  The US 10-year yield is up five basis points to 2.86%, which is about 10 bp above Monday’s low.  European yields are up 9-10 bp.  The 10-year German Bund yield was near 0.88% on Monday and is now near 1.07%.  Italy’s premium over German is near 2.18%, the most in nearly three weeks.  Although Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by Japan’s 1.2%...

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Bitcoin technical analysis and trade idea followup

2022-08-17

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This is a follow up to a trade idea discussed and monitored on: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-and-trade-idea-follow-up-respect-the-20-day-ema/ A pullback now should touch the 20EMA on the BTCUSD daily timeframe. This isn't the first time the price has touched the 20 EMA, as the video shows. Previous pullbacks crossed it down. This pullback that missed it is significant. We wouldn't adjust trade if not....

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EURJPY finds sellers near the 200 hour MA, 38.2% and trend line resistance.

2022-08-16

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The EURJPY rallied to the upside today but could not sustain momentum above after finding resistance against the 200 hour MA, a downward sloping trend line and the 38.2% of the move down from the July 21 high. Sellers leaned against those levels as risk could be defined and limited against the area. It also tilted the bias back to the downside with risk being a move back above the cluster of resistance.

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GBPUSD moves to a new high. Extends toward resistance target near 1.2100.

2022-08-16

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The GBPUSD has pushed higher and trades above a key swing area near 1.2064 and now looks toward the 1.2100 level. The 200 hour MA looms above 1.21216. Close support at 1.2064 area for buyers looking for more upside. Sellers want to see 1.21000 level hold resistance now.

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USDJPY breaks above the 100/200 hour MAs tilting the bias higher in the short term

2022-08-16

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The USDJPY moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs today, shifting the bias more to the upside (blue and green lines). The price has the 50% of the recent range as the new upside target now. Close ris is 134.314 and the 200 hour MA as well. Traders will not want the price to move back below the 200 hour MA if the buyers are to keep control.

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EURUSD moves down to test the high or the lower extreme and finds buyers

2022-08-16

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The EURUSD moved down to test the high of a swing area between 1.0096 and 1.0121. The low reached 1.0122 and bounced modestly higher. That low was equal to the August low as well.    The 50% retracement of the range since July 14 is close topside resistance that would now need to be rebroken if the buyers are to take back more control. That level comes in at 1.01597.  There is a swing area at 1.0144 to 1.0151 ahead of that level.

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Greenback Remains Firm

2022-08-16

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2022-08-16

Overview: After retreating most of last week, the US dollar has extended yesterday’s gains today. The Canadian dollar is the most resilient, while the New Zealand dollar is leading the decline with a nearly 0.75% drop ahead of the central bank decision first thing tomorrow. The RBNZ is expected to deliver its fourth consecutive 50 bp hike. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well, led by central Europe. Equities in Asia Pacific and Europe...

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China Disappoints and Surprises with Rate Cut

2022-08-15

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2022-08-15

Overview: Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though Chinese and Hong Kong markets eased, and South Korea and India were closed for national holidays. Despite new Chinese exercises off the coast of Taiwan following another US congressional visit, Taiwan’s Taiex gained almost 0.85%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are paring the pre-weekend rally. Following disappointing data...

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Bitcoin technical analysis update, BTCUSD 24047.44 ▼

2022-08-15

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You can follow how an experienced trader thinks and plans a short trade on bitcoin here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bitcoin-technical-analysis-bulls-might-be-giving-up-soon-20220813/ The above includes of ongoing monitoring and updates, and also provide a technical analysis snapshot for the crypto king. Specifically here, you can see where potential profit taking can be executed, that are in line with the technicals. Trade...

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AUDUSD trades between technical levels that just make sense. What do I mean?

2022-08-15

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Technical levels work because a lot of traders see them and use them to define and limit risk. If you can find multiple reasons near different technical tools, you have a low risk trading opportunity to lean and see what happens without risking much.  Those are trades you should look for each and every day.   "Risk a little. to make more than a little." In this video, I outline what I mean using the AUDUSD as the basis for the low...

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A technical look at the major currency pairs to start the US trading week

2022-08-15

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The USD moved higher as concerns in China and Europe from slower growth lead to risk-off sentiment to start the week.    The EURUSD and GBPUSD moved lower, moving below key MA levels. The USDJPY fell more recently on the back of weaker Empire manufacturing data. The USDCAD is a big mover to the upside helped by sharply lower oil prices.  The AUDUSD is falling on risk off and slower China.

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BTCUSD 24816.27 technical analysis update for 15 Aug

2022-08-15

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Bitcoin technical analysis update for 15 Aug: Following another "fakie" above the recent high and the 25k mark, bitcoin is testing the diagonal line, now acting as support. Watch for 4 hour candles to close above the recent high or below the VWAP (purple line). The stop loss of the original trade idea, presented in the video at the top of this page, is still active and has not been reached, despite the recent rally. When trading crypto,...

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Is the Dollar’s Month-Long Pullback Over?

2022-08-14

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2022-08-14

The bullish dollar narrative was fairly straightforward. Yes, the US main challengers, China and Russia, have been hobbled in different ways by self-inflicted injuries. Still, the driver of the dollar was the expected aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve.

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The weekend forex technical report for the week of August 15, 2022

2022-08-13

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In this video, I preview the upcoming week in the forex market with the focus on the major currencies vs the USD.

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Bitcoin technical analysis and shorting BTCUSD close to $24500 since bulls might be giving up soon.

2022-08-13

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Today's daily candle, while closing only in apx 4 hours, is now showing a sign that bulls are NOT about to break the presented channel to the upside, following this 4th attempt to do so, on the daily timeframe. Even if we had a coin flip for this trade, the reward vs risk merits to short BTCUSD here. Why? Because the stop loss is half the take profit target for the first part of this trade plan, and only 25% of the profit target of the 2nd part,...

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Week Ahead: More Evidence US Consumption and Output are Expanding, and RBNZ and Norges Bank to Hike

2022-08-13

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2022-08-13

After two-quarters of contraction, many still do not accept that the US economy is in a recession. Federal Reserve officials have pushed against it, as has Treasury Secretary Yellen. The nearly 530k rise in July nonfarm rolls, more than twice the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey, and a new cyclical low in unemployment (3.5%) lent credibility to their arguments. If Q3 data point to a growing economy, additional support will likely be...

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