Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

The Greenback Firms to Start the New Week, Stocks Slide

2022-09-19

by

2022-09-19

Overview:  The busy week is off to a slow start as Japan is on holiday and the UK and Canadian markets are closed to honor Queen (Australia will commemorate with a holiday on Thursday). Nevertheless, the sell-off in equities continues and the US dollar is firm. Most of the large markets in Asia fell. India is a notable exception. Its benchmark rose for the first time in four sessions, helped by bank shares and Infosys. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for...

Read More »

The Dollar may Stabilize Ahead of the FOMC

2022-09-18

by

2022-09-18

Verbal intervention proved sufficient to keep the US dollar below JPY145, but the greenback gained broadly. It rose to new two-year highs against the dollar-bloc and Chinese yuan ahead of the weekend and to levels against sterling not seen since 1985.

Read More »

No One Wants a Recession, but Central Banks are willing to Take the Risk to Demonstrate Anti-Inflation Resolve

2022-09-17

by

2022-09-17

The week ahead is busy. Three G7 central banks meet, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. In addition, Japan and Canada report their latest CPI readings, and the flash September PMI are released.  There are three elements of the Fed's meeting that are worth previewing. First is the interest rate decision itself and the accompanying statement. Ironically, this seems to be the most straightforward. Even before the August...

Read More »

The Dollar Heads into the Weekend Well Bid

2022-09-16

by

2022-09-16

Overview:  The dollar is well bid. It has risen to new two-year highs against the dollar bloc and Chinese yuan. Aided by worse than expected retail sales, sterling, on its anniversary of leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism fell to its lowest level since 1985. This fits into the broader risk-off move. The S&P 500 fell to new two-month lows yesterday, and FedEx warnings after the bell yesterday add to the string of worrisome comments...

Read More »

Calmer Capital Markets…for the Moment

2022-09-15

by

2022-09-15

Overview: The capital markets are quiet today. Equity markets and bond yields have a slight upside bias, while the dollar is little changed. Despite reports that the lockdown in Chengdu is easing, Chinese equities underperformed in the Asia Pacific region.

Read More »

Markets Remain on Edge

2022-09-14

by

2022-09-14

Overview: The firmer than expected US CPI set off a major reversal of the recent price action. It is a two-prong issue. The first is about inflation and the squeeze on the cost-of-living.

Read More »

The USD runs higher after stronger CPI. A look at the technicals after the US CPI data

2022-09-13

by

USDJPY: The USDJPY moved above its 100 hour MA and looks toward the high from last week at 144.498 EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved back below its 100 hour MA at 1.0054 and looks toward the 200 hour MA at 0.9998 now. The pair fell back in the lower swing area on the daily below 1.0096 to 1.0121

Read More »

Will the Dollar Recover After CPI?

2022-09-13

by

2022-09-13

Overview: The US dollar remains offered ahead of today’s CPI report. Most European currencies are outperforming the dollar bloc, and the greenback is holding inside yesterday’s range against the yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, as well.

Read More »

Making sense of your senses in your trading

2022-09-13

by

We as humans use our senses in all aspects of life, and such is the case with trading. Do you feel and hear what the market is telling you?

Read More »

The morning forex technical report for September 12, 2022

2022-09-12

by

The USD is trying to move lower, but finding some resistance in doing so. I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD in the morning technical report.

Read More »

Careful about Chasing the Dollar Lower in North America Today

2022-09-12

by

2022-09-12

The bout of profit-taking on long dollar positions begun last week has carried into the start of this week. Despite the escalating rhetoric, the yen is not participating today and is trading within the pre-weekend ranges. The greenback’s lows have been set in the European morning and have stretched the intraday momentum indicators, suggesting that North American dealers may not follow suit.

Read More »

The Dollar: Was it the ECB and BOJ or the Bounce in Equities?

2022-09-11

by

2022-09-11

After extending its recent gains, the dollar fell sharply at the end of last week. Many factors could have sparked the pullback, including the stronger expressions of concern by Japanese officials with an implicit threat of intervention and perceptions of an increased likelihood that the ECB will deliver another 75 bp hike next month.

Read More »

Ethereum technical analysis and trade idea. Hunting for a Long.

2022-09-11

by

This article analyzes ethereum's price against the dollar on September 11. The full analysis is at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/ethereum-technical-analysis-trade-idea-20220911/ Daily time frame channel bull flag. Green arrows in the video indicate the lower frequency band, while red arrows indicate the higher. Cryptocurrencies are recovering alongside the stock market. Even temporarily, it's tradeable. Since the recent rally is...

Read More »

The Weekend Forex Report for the week starting September 12, 2022

2022-09-10

by

In this report, I look at some of the fundamental stories that are shaping the markets, and then look at the technical which have seen the start of a move lower in the USD. Can that shift continue this week? Fundamental review: - 0:00 to 7:00 Technical analysis by currency pair: - EURUSD 7:10 - USDJPY: 12:19 - GBPUSD 15:10 - USDCHF 17:31 - USDCAD 20:15 - AUDUSD 22:12 - NZDUSD 23:15

Read More »

US CPI in Focus

2022-09-10

by

2022-09-10

The US dollar rally is of historic proportions. Its climb is relentless, though there was around a 4-7% pullback for a few weeks beginning in mid-July. Since then, the greenback has made up for lost time and appreciated to multiyear highs against most of the major currencies. The first real bout of profit-taking in nearly a month seen in recent days looks corrective in nature.  

Read More »

Bitcoin technical analysis: Watch this trading range.

2022-09-10

by

Technical analysis for BTCUSD for 10 September. Watch the horizontal trading range, and the yellow channel, which is also a potential bull flag.

Read More »

Why this could be the bottom in Europe

2022-09-09

by

We’re seeing the covid playbook rolled out on energy. During covid, businesses had to shut down but all the costs were taken on the government balance sheet. That’s when we saw the huge turnaround in markets. The UK is signaling that it will do the same thing by capping/subsidizing energy and more countries in Europe are leaning that way as well. Like covid, this could be a turning point. What’s different this time is that monetary policy isn’t...

Read More »

A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD to start the US trading day

2022-09-09

by

The USD has moved lower but found a bottom. What next? The USD moved lower today but is finding some buying in the early NY session. That buying of the USD (selling of the currency) has seen traders lean against targeted technical levels. I look at 4 currency pairs.  0:16: USDJPY 2:44: EURUSD 5:14: GBPUSD 6:56: USDCAD Take a look and understand the "why's" for today's trading and what needs to happen next.

Read More »

Sharp Dollar Setback may offer Bulls a Bargain

2022-09-09

by

2022-09-09

The dollar is having one of the largest setbacks in recent weeks. We expected the dollar to soften ahead of next week’s CPI, which may fan ideas/hopes of a peak in US price pressures, but the magnitude and speed of the move is surprising, and likely speaks to the extreme positioning.

Read More »