Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Dollar Index Gives Back Half of 21-Month Gains in 3 1/2 Months

2023-01-13

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2023-01-13

Overview: The continued easing of US price pressures has strengthened the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will further slow the pace of rate hikes and that the terminal rate will be near 5.0%. The decline in US rates has removed a key support for the US dollar, which has fallen against all the G10 currencies this week. The Dollar Index has now retraced half of what it gained since bottoming on January 6, 2021. Meanwhile, there are...

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Is it Too Easy to Think the Market Repeats its Reaction to a Soft US CPI?

2023-01-12

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2023-01-12

The market expects a soft US CPI print today, which has recently been associated with risk-on moves. The US 10-year yield is holding slightly above 3.50%, the lowest end of the range since the middle of last month. The two-year yield is a little above 4.20%, also the lower end of its recent range. Most observers see the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of its hikes to a quarter point on February 1.

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Tips on using the MACD indicator in technical analysis

2023-01-12

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See the tips at https://www.forexlive.com/Education/5-useful-tips-for-using-the-macd-indicator-in-technical-analysis/

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Get the day started by reviewing the major currency pairs from a technical perspective

2023-01-11

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The morning forex technical report for January 11, 2023. The US CPI will be released at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow with the focus on things like the services CPI ex shelter as per Feds Daly. See post https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/what-exactly-is-cpi-ex-rent-and-shelter-doing-20230110/ discussing that measure of inflation. Additionally, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive looks at the technical levels driving the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF and...

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Greenback Consolidates Near Recent Lows Ahead of Tomorrow’s US CPI

2023-01-11

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2023-01-11

Overview: Fed Chair Powell did not push against the easing of US financial conditions when he ostensibly had an opportunity yesterday. This coupled with expectations of another decline in the US CPI, which will be reported tomorrow, has kept the greenback mostly consolidating the losses seen last Friday and Monday.

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Kickstart your trading day. A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD

2023-01-10

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Get a view from the technicals and the price action from Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com. Kickstart your day by watching the morning technical video. In this video, I review the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCAD to get the ball rolling.   Fed's Powell is speaking on a panel, but it will be the CPI data on Thursday which will be key event this week. Fed's Daly, told us yesterday that it is not only the CPI, but the service CPI ex housing which...

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Consolidative Tone in FX

2023-01-10

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2023-01-10

Overview: After sharp losses yesterday, the US dollar has stabilized today arguably ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Riksbank symposium. Yesterday's Fed speakers stuck to the hawkish rhetoric, and this seemed to help reverse the equity market gains, though the greenback remained soft.

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Forex Quick Look: The GBPUSD is trading higher and away from 200 day MA level in the process

2023-01-09

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The GBPUSD is making a run to the upside in early NY trading and in doing so, is running away from the 200 day MA below. That has the buyers more in control. What next technically for the currency pair?

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VIDEO: USDJPY finds sellers near the 50% retracement. What next?

2023-01-09

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A forex quick look at the USDJPY from a technical perspective. The USDJPY has seen a rotation lower in the first few hours of trading in the US session, and in the process, stayed below the 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range at 132.70.

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Greenback’s Sell-off may Stall Ahead of Powell Tomorrow

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Overview: Don't fight the Fed went the manta as the market took the US two-year yield back up to 4.50% in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes last week, the highest in over a month. The minutes warned of a premature easing of financial conditions. And then bam, softer than expected hourly earnings and a weak service PMI and bonds and stocks rallied, and the dollar was sold. This is a key part of the backdrop for this week, for which several Fed...

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Forex Trading to Beat Inflation? The Key Considerations

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Inflation rates are continuing to rise across the globe, with the UK arguably leading this trend. More specifically, the UK inflation rate hit 10.7% in November, and while it dipped slightly from a peak of 11.1% in October, it remained considerably higher than the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

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Falling US Yields Stymie the Dollar’s Recovery

2023-01-08

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2023-01-08

We have been torn between our conviction that the dollar's cyclical rally ended last September-October, and the near-term momentum indicators that warned that the dollar's pullback was overdone. Aside from the Japanese yen, a consolidative phase dominated December, but the momentum indicators still seemed to suggest upside potential dollar. 

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TRANSITION: The weekend forex technical report (and more) for the week of Jan 9, 2023

2023-01-08

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There are a lot of transitions that are going on from a fundamental and technical perspective. In this weekend video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, talks about the transitions that are occurring in the economy, politics and in the markets in his weekend Forex technical report. Set yourself up to understand the dynamics in play and how you might benefit in your trading this week.

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Accessing Paper Trading in TradingView

2023-01-07

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Paper trade futures with a trial account: It's the most critical component of your essay and procedure. Most brokerage companies provide free demo accounts so you may practice trading without risking your money. Before trading with real money, use this opportunity to test your trading technique and learn the market. You may also try TradingView's fantastic and straightforward paper trading, as seen here. Now some traders claim: Live trading...

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US CPI Featured and Why the Fed may Still Hike by 50 bp

2023-01-07

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2023-01-07

The most important economic report in the week ahead is the US December Consumer Price Index on January 12. To be sure, the Federal Reserve targets an alternative measure, the deflator of personal consumption expenditures. However, in this cycle, when households, businesses, investors, and policymakers are particularly sensitive to inflation, CPI, which is reported a couple of weeks before the PCE deflator, has stolen the thunder.

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The morning forex technical report. The USD moves lower after the US jobs reportt

2023-01-06

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The USD moved higher in anticipation of the US jobs report. That report showed wages were less of a concern with an increase of 0.3% versus 0.4% MoM. Moreover the prior month was revised lower from 0.6% to 0.4%. Good news. The not so good news for a rate perspective is the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). That puts the unemployment rate near full employment which has potential for what wage gains down the road....

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USD Stretched Ahead of Employment Report, while Yuan Jumps on Hopes of New Property Initiatives

2023-01-06

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2023-01-06

Overview: The US dollar extended yesterday's gains as the market adjusts positions ahead of the jobs data. Yesterday and today's price action looks to have strengthened the near-term technical outlook for the greenback. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched. This warns of the risk of a counter-intuitive move after the data, barring a significant surprise. Meanwhile, one of the Fed's leading hawkish voices, St. Louis Fed President...

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Natural Gas technical analysis: Go Long, go big!

2023-01-05

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An excelland spot to go Long (at your own discretion) at this amazing technical junction.

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The morning Forex technical report for January 5, 2023

2023-01-05

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A technical look at some of the major currency pairs with the US dollar Click on the above video to watch the morning Forex technical report for January 5, 2023. IN the reported take a look at the lows and play for some of the major currency pairs versus US dollar including the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD.

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The Market Appears to Shrug Off the Fed’s Warning

2023-01-05

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2023-01-05

Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in a mixed fashion today. The FOMC minutes drew much attention but failed, at least initially, to spur a significant shift in expectations. The pricing in the Fed funds futures strip is still consistent with a cut later this year, which the minutes were clear, no officials anticipate. Today's US ADP jobs estimate, and November trade balance are being overshadowed by tomorrow's nonfarm payroll figures. The...

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