Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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EURUSD moves to a new high. Tests the July swing low at 0.99515

2022-11-04

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The EURUSD is moving to a new session high and in the process is up testing one of my old favorite levels.  The 0.99515 level.  That level was the swing low back in July after the price broke below the parity level for the first time. In September the price moved down to test it, before breaking to the cycle low for the year. Last month, the pair used the level as a risk defining target as well. We are back testing it. A move above would have...

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Dollar moves lower. How did the technicals help the price action post the NFP report?

2022-11-04

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Before the US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive outlined the key levels in play. If you did not see that video, you can find it here. So how did the levels play out? The technical levels did tell the story. What was surprising was the price action.  If someone told me the data ahead, I would have the dollar moving higher, the stocks moving lower and yields move higher. That was the initial reaction, but technical levels to the USD...

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Technical levels in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD ahead of the US jobs report.

2022-11-04

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Be aware. Be prepared IN this pre-US jobs report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com outlines the key technical levels in play.  Risk is increased. The market is preparing for the next shove. - The EURUSD has retraced and moved back to a key technical area. - The USDJPY is trading between its 100/200 hour MAs and awaiting the next shove - The GBPUSD is trading above and below its 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart and within a swing area.  Find out...

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US Dollar Offered Ahead of the Employment Report

2022-11-04

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2022-11-04

Overview: Risk appetites have returned but may be tested by the US jobs report. News of progress with US auditors in China helped lift Hong Kong and Chinese equities. Most of the large bourses in the region also rose. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 1% near midday after shedding 1.3% over the past two sessions. US futures also are trading with an upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly a little softer today. The 10-year US...

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Russell 2000 technical analysisL Bears just got faked out.

2022-11-04

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RTY (Russell 2000 futures) had a bear breakout down, but then an immediate reversal price action on the 4 hour timeframe, bringing the Russell back into the upward channel (redish channel) shown in the video. Due to the failed breakout, most bears thought they were in a breakout down. But this is a "fakie" or fakeout for them, as they saw price reverse on them, which expedites their need to cover the short, creating quicker pressure...

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USDCAD rotates lower toward MA support after testing the low of the upper swing area

2022-11-03

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Will the buyers buy the dip in the USDCAD? Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com takes a technical look at the USDCAD and sets up a target level to lean against on a dip.

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The risk defining ceiling for the EURUSD. Do you want to know what it is?

2022-11-03

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The EURUSD moved below a key swing area in the 0.98056 to 0.9816 area. The break below opened the downside up more, put the sellers more in control, and defined risk for sellers.  Stay below 0.9816 keeps the sellers firmly in control. In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.com, outlines the level and the risk for traders.

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FOREX QUICK: USDJPY moves off resistance and back toward MA support

2022-11-03

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IN this video Greg Michalowski from Forexlive, takes a look at the technicals driving the USDJPY pair in trading today.   On the topside, a downward sloping trend line stalled the rally. In the US session, the corrective move lower is finding some support near the 100/200 hour moving averages and the 38.2% retracement.   Levels are defined. Traders looking for the next shove.

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Fed’s Hawkishness Roils the Capital Markets

2022-11-03

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2022-11-03

Overview: The Fed delivered the expected 75 bp rate hike, and although it says it will take into account the cumulative effect of past hikes and their lagged impact, the takeaway has been a hawkish message. Risk appetites have evaporated. The dollar is stronger, while stocks and bonds have been sold. Japan’s markets were spared due to the national holiday, but the other large markets in the area were sold, lead by the 3% decline in the Hang Seng....

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VIDEO: A follow-up to the GBPJPY trade idea. Did the anticipation work?

2022-11-02

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Yesterday, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive.com looked at the GBPJPY. The hourly chart showed 6 separate tests of the 200 hour MA and support buyers leaning.  With 6 separate tests, traders who are looking for more downside in the pair, can anticipate a break below with momentum. Moreover, risk could be defined and limited on the break. There was indeed a break of the 200 hour MA in the trading day today, but the momentum stalled a short time...

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It’s FOMC Day:What technical levels are in play ahead of the rate decision? Be prepared!

2022-11-02

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A technical look at some of the major currency pairs and why for your pre-FOMC preparation. In this video Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, outlines the technical levels in play for some of the major currency pairs through the FOMC rate decision.   If you trade technically, the price action and technical tools applied to the price action, define the bias and the risk.  Knowing what levels that are in play, allow traders to game plan in case they...

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It is not So Much about the Fed’s hike Today but the Forward Guidance

2022-11-02

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2022-11-02

Overview: A consolidative tone has emerged ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today. The focus is not so much on the 75 bp rate hike, but on its forward guidance. Many expect the Fed to signal it will return to a 50 bp move next month, but we are not convinced that it will go beyond indicating that 50 bp or 75 bp will be debated in December, depending on the data. The market has a 5% terminal rate discounted. The Fed does not need to...

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VIDEO: Are you anticipating the next trade? The GBPJPY technicals are setting up a trade.

2022-11-01

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The last 6 tests of a key technical in the GBPJPY have seen a bounce. What would you expect if it doesn't bounce. Traders need to react...yes. They also need to anticipate the next low risk trade. The GBPJPY has a trade setup that might open the door for a low risk/high reward trade, but you have to be ready for it.

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The USD is the weakest of the major currencies ahead of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow

2022-11-01

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The morning technical video looks at the price action dominating in the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and USDCHF. The USD is the weakest of the major currencies in trading today ahead of the Fed rate decision as markets react to the hope of China abandoning their zero-covid policy.  Stocks are higher. Yields are lower.  Hopes are the Fed is more dovish tomorrow or at least they signal the near end of policy rate hikes.   - EURUSD (2:04)- The EURUSD is...

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RBA Hikes by 25 bp, Chinese Stocks Surge, and the Greenback Trades Heavier

2022-11-01

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2022-11-01

Overview: Risk appetites have returned today. Bonds and stocks are advancing, while the dollar is better offered. Unsourced claims that Beijing has formed a committee to assess how to exit the zero-Covid policy sent Chinese shares sharply higher. An index of mainland companies list in Hong Kong jumped nearly 7% and closed up almost 5.5%. The Hang Seng surged 5.2%, while all the large markets in the region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 recovered...

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Coffee Price Forecast: Looking Strong!

2022-11-01

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The price of coffee is predicted to rise for the rest of 2022 and into 2023, based on the following technical analysis and price chart of coffee futures, provided by ForexLive.com For additional perspectives on a variety of financial assets, please visit: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis Trade cofee futures at your own risk.

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The Dollar Returns from the Weekend Bid

2022-10-31

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2022-10-31

The dollar has come back from the weekend bid. After the ECB and BOJ meetings last week, the focus has shifted back to the US where the FOMC meeting concludes in the middle of the week and the October employment report is out ahead of the weekend. Sterling and the yen are the weakest performers among the G10 currencies and are off 0.45%-0.50%. The Antipodeans are performing best and are straddling little changed levels.

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Three down.Three to go. The RBA, BOE and Fed will be the next CBs to report policy changes

2022-10-31

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IN the weekend report, I also look at the technicals that will drive the major currency pairs in the new trading week

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Russell 2000 technical analysis

2022-10-30

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There is a double magnet pulling price to 1885 to 1900 where partial profit taker will probabably be waiting. But on the medium term, this will probably be temporary selling within a bigger bullish reversal up.

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November 2022 Monthly

2022-10-30

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2022-10-30

With this month's hike, the Federal Reserve would have raised overnight rates by 300 bp while doubling the pace that its balance sheet is shrinking over the past 100 days. The US economy is the largest in the world, and US interest rates and the dollar are vital benchmarks.

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